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Shiller: Housing market comeback may be an illusion


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2013 Jan 25, 1:41am   35,007 views  100 comments

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http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2013/01/shiller_housing_market_comebac.html

The housing market has been declining for something like six years now, it could go on, that’s my worry,” Shiller daid. “The short-term indicators are up now, it definitely looks better, but we saw that in 2009.

#housing

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89   David Losh   2013 Jan 30, 12:42am  

I drove for a woman who was here from China and worked for a bicycle company. It's a huge company.

She needed an American driver, and companion for a meeting she had in Canada with her company representatives. It was a favor.

It was the most interesting couple of days by the way these people did business. I bought them coffee at a Starbucks, and they were squimish. They only wanted to buy things in the International District, from Chinese businesses. We both had a lot of questions for each other.

What I learned is that the United States has a defect quotiant for products from China. It used to be only 25% defects that were allowed, but the United States lowered it to 10%. There must be a fine system in place, I don't really know.

What I do know is that in other business meetings I've attended with Chinese, and American representatives is that the defect rate is a driving concern for American business. No business wants to be associated with bad product.

90   ELC   2013 Jan 30, 7:29am  

tatupu70 says

If Disney is paying the Chinese factory to make the toys, you don't think they could tell them NOT to put the stickers on the toys in the first place?

Look, all I know is occationally there'll be a sticker left on.

91   thomaswong.1986   2013 Jan 30, 7:43am  

SFace says

Nominated.

If you are implying the difference in building an Iphone in China is an increment of .21 in costs, you're totally clueless.

ask any Cost Accountant or Financial Analyst in a Manufacturing company...

see Apple's CEO above.. costs are not the concern... as Tim Cook has stated.

92   thomaswong.1986   2013 Jan 30, 7:47am  

SFace says

Evan Mexico, with a fraction of US wages and free trade with North America and proximity is not even close to competitive with China.

funny comments from an anonymous source... lets compare to facts..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/steve-jobs-biography-obama_n_1022786.html

"You're headed for a one-term presidency," he told Obama at the start of their meeting, insisting that the administration needed to be more business-friendly. As an example, Jobs described the ease with which companies can build factories in China compared to the United States, where "regulations and unnecessary costs" make it difficult for them."

93   tatupu70   2013 Jan 30, 7:48am  

thomaswong.1986 says

  • ask any Cost Accountant or Financial Analyst in a Manufacturing company...

    see Apple's CEO above.. costs are not the concern... as Tim Cook has stated.

  • I don't need to ask--I know costs are always a concern. To imply otherwise is pure nonsense.

    For you to say costs are not the concern is one of the most ridiculous statements I've seen from you Thomas. It's all about costs. Everything boils down to costs.

    94   thomaswong.1986   2013 Jan 30, 7:59am  

    If costs are a concern.. there is an answer to that as well.. like our tech equipment which has been hacked by the Chinese military and intelligence agencies in order to spy and control various personal and industrial systems across many nations.

    Frankly .. a US manufacturer could offer safe higher priced goods vs Chinese made lower costs goods that have security flaws and have been compromised.

    Any customer in any continent would feel safer by purchasing a higher costing "Made in the USA" for those reasons. Im very sure the push back to the USA is also centered around "National Security" not only for USA but many other nations around the globe.

    ----------------------------------------------------------

    China tech company brags: We hack U.S. telecoms
    www.wnd.com/.../china-tech-company-admits-hacking-u-s-tel...
    Jun 14, 2012 – WASHINGTON – A major Chinese telecommunications company has been boasting how it was able to hack into U.S. and international .

    China-Based Hacking of 760 Companies Shows Cyber Cold War ...
    www.bloomberg.com/.../china-based-hacking-of-760-compan...
    Dec 14, 2011 – China has made industrial espionage an integral part of its .... semiconductors and clean energy, like solar power, the PwC report said

    Backdoor Found In China-Made US Military Chip? - Slashdot
    it.slashdot.org/.../backdoor-found-in-china-made-us-military-c...
    May 28, 2012 – If it turns out the Chinese stealth stomps the F35 and can be made for less than ..... aspires to being serious competition to China in semiconductor manufacturing. ..... There are stories about hacking, and now about hardware ...

    Digital Spies: The Alarming Rise of Electronic Espionage - Popular ...
    www.popularmechanics.com › ... › DIY Tech › Cyber Security
    Jan 24, 2012 – Foreign agents are stealing stealth technology, hacking heads of state ... And while many of these attacks are traced to China, electronic ... They made off with sensitive semiconductor, satellite, space, and aircraft technologies.

    Chinese intelligence operations in the United States - Wikipedia, the ...
    en.wikipedia.org/.../Chinese_intelligence_operations_in_the_U...
    The Chinese operate in ways that take advantage of U.S. laws to avoid prosecution. ... These items may include computers, semiconductors, software, telecommunications devices, and .... During this time, Smith made classified documents available to Leung, who was .... More journalists have their email accounts hacked, ...

    95   thomaswong.1986   2013 Jan 30, 8:02am  

    tatupu70 says

    For you to say costs are not the concern is one of the most ridiculous statements I've seen from you Thomas. It's all about costs. Everything boils down to costs.

    your examples of costs are faulty.. when applied to mass scale operations.. $20 of hourly labor gets absorbed and applied to product costing across large number of units...

    under your example... every unit labor burden is the 1 hourly rate.. regardless of home many 1000s of units produced within that hour.. Clearly... YOU ARE WRONG!

    96   thomaswong.1986   2013 Jan 30, 8:21am  


    Dislike (1)  

    your fucking welcome.. LOL!

    97   tatupu70   2013 Jan 30, 8:24am  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    your examples of costs are faulty.. when applied to mass scale operations.. $20 of hourly labor gets absorbed and applied to product costing across large number of units...

    under your example... every unit labor burden is the 1 hourly rate.. regardless of home many 1000s of units produced.. Clearly... YOU ARE WRONG!

    I am most definitely not wrong. I really can't believe you are even an acccountant. You lack a basic understanding of cost accounting.

    My example showed you the difference in total labor cost. The difference in unit labor cost is not really important--companies don't pay their employees per unit, they pay them per hour. If you want to calculate the total labor savings, you look at total labor cost in the US vs. total labor cost in China. Not unit labor costs.

    98   David Losh   2013 Jan 30, 8:39am  

    SFace says

    Evan Mexico, with a fraction of US wages and free trade with North America and proximity is not even close to competitive with China.

    OK, I posted an incomplete comment this morning because I was late.

    The point in China is to employ as many people as possible. When we think of a factory here in the United States we talk in city blocks, in China they talk in acres.

    China has thousands of people employed in factories, and if they don't have enough people to meet demand they ship people in.

    The reason the defect rate was allowed to go down for China is the promises of quality control. China did an admirable job in a short amount of time to respond to the new standards.

    Where it would take the United States ten years to comply with higher standards of manufacturing, and an Act of Congress, the Chinese simply went into factories and made the changes.

    You don't get that in South America, or Mexico, there would be cries of unfair trade practices; in China they just did it.

    As far as the cost of labor, it is rising, fast, and even with the rises in labor costs the Chinese are happy to have the work.

    When I say Chinese, I mean that the government is there to do all they can to keep businesses hiring.

    When you meet with Chinese business people you meet with a government representative at the same time. I used to think it was so the Chinese could control the business sector, but the facts, to me, have shown that when you tell a Chinese business owner they need to do something, it gets done.

    What a concept that the government of China is interested, and responsive to the needs of business.

    99   David Losh   2013 Jan 30, 11:04am  

    robertoaribas says

    I've never been to a more moronically run or less efficient country ever.

    For a shipping company? and your girlfreind didn't tell you you need to pay taxes, and black money to boot?

    Come on, grow a pair. It's the cost of doing business.

    However, if you are a big employer, I mean a million person employer, the government listens.

    100   David Losh   2013 Jan 30, 9:08pm  

    robertoaribas says

    i just went along for the ride.

    It's the cost of doing business the same as there is a cost of doing business anywhere.

    The people who complain about the red tape are the one's not involved in the Chinese culture.

    I don't do business in Asia, but my bbrother has for thirty years, he has the same complaints you do, and I know he's not making much money.

    If your girl freind's boss wanted to wire the money instead he could, and pay the bribes to get the taxes paid. It was cheaper to give your girl freind the car, and a day off. What did her time with the car cost again, I mean as long as we are talking about the cost of labor in China?

    If I wanted to compare that the the good old USofA, I can easily, because I have to go pay a frigging payment to our City government in person tomorrow for taxes I have already paid for last year, but the frigging system the City of Seattle has is so backward they can't keep any records straight. So I'm going to go down in a couple of hours, in person, to pay $384.60 that the City claims I owe, on an account I know is closed. They called me today to threaten me. So, I have one day to get it paid or I pay fees, and penalties, and maybe go into collections.

    See, I go and pay, then while doing my taxes I add up my payments, and hey! I'm right they are wrong, but hey! I'm going to owe them money any way, so we will work it out later the same as we have for twenty years or more.

    It's the frigging cost of doing business.

    Did you really say total, and utter bullshit?

    Don't get me started on small business, because it is tough all over.

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