patrick.net

Contrarian conjecture aside -- you're right, YUP1.

There will be no middle class income growth in America in the next decade. (Why would there be?)

tatupu70 says

yup1 says

Raw says

Home prices are not overpriced anymore.

So says those that own, those that rent believe the opposite, some of those that own (me) still believe the opposite. Home prices are being supported by low interest rates. What happens if rates rise?

If rates rise, that means unemployment will certainly have fallen and incomes will be up. So house prices will probably be rising as well.

Call it Crazy says

The only way house prices can rise with rising interest rates is if wages rise
accordingly.... and we know where wages have been all these past years.

Yep, and we know where interest rates have been all these past years. That's the point.

If you are betting that interest rates will rise sifnificantly while wages stay stagnant, then you are betting on a very unusual event occurring.

Just so you understand that you are the one predicting against history.

JodyChunder says

There will be no middle class income growth in America in the next decade.
(Why would there be?)

lol. US productivity continues to rise. The only reason there is no median income growth is because it's all going to the 1%. If Obama continues to make taxes more progressive, median income growth will return.

The FED has pretty much admitted that they will keep rates low until things/unemployment gets better. The current QE, they didn't even set a time limit-they can buy junk for all of eternity. There is no risk in the market for the big players.

The only thing that can happen, is if the dam breaks and the flood is large enough to bury even the FED. While unlikely, it may happen-but chances are slim. I think we are stuck at these low rates for a long time.

lostand confused says

The only thing that can happen, is if the dam breaks and the flood is large enough to bury even the FED. While unlikely, it may happen-but chances are slim. I think we are stuck at these low rates for a long time.

The Fed is the king of creating bubbles. The dam will break sooner or later.

tatupu70 says

JodyChunder says

There will be no middle class income growth in America in the next decade.

(Why would there be?)

lol. US productivity continues to rise. The only reason there is no median income growth is because it's all going to the 1%. If Obama continues to make taxes more progressive, median income growth will return.

I think this will be one vital solution to the problem--more money definitely needs to trickle down. That is crucial.

underwaterman says

And, more dumb ass anecdotal evidence ignoring the effect a 7.5% interest rate would have on leverage mortgage payments. Just more of the same BS miss roberta

Everyone understands the effect that higher interest rates has on mortgage payments. Believe me, we get it.

But we also understand the historical relationship between interest rates and wage inflation. Like I said earlier, interest rates don't rise and fall randomly--they move in response to macroeconomic factors. And those factors historically have also had an effect on wage inflation.

So, for you to completely ignore the historical relationship shows your ignorance.

It's another high jacked real estate thread by underwaterman. underwaterman says

Another ad hominem personal attack via my profitable investment.

I've yet to hear about your profitable investments, yet you want us all to tell you ours in great detail. So far all I've ever read you say is Real Estate bad, gold good, because Glenn Beck tells me all these other people have made fortunes from gold.

That's it, and yet you keep mucking up Real Estate threads with your psycho babble.

underwaterman says

Yeah, silly me. Wages causes interest rates to go up and down is what your stating. Seems to me the FED is having some kind of causal effect thru their ZIRP policies. Yes, wage inflation accounts for housing interest rates going from 6.5% in 2008 to 3.5% today. Yeah, right.

In a sense, it does. You are the one who keeps saying that wages are flat or falling for the last decade. Interest rates and wages move together, so it's not surprising that interest rates are falling.

underwaterman says

personal attacks via my investment,

What investment?

You have no information here about an investment strategy.

Gold isn't an investment strategy.

Are you buying, and selling by market timing, because that is the only way to make gold work for you.

It's like taking your jewelry in, and out of pawn.

You haven't presented a strategy, and yet you are here killing another Real Estate thread with your Glenn Beck gold stories.

Then you throw in some insults, and psycho babble, and off you go again.

I've outlined some of my investments, but you have only told tales about losses.

underwaterman says

There not causal oh dumb one.

Of course not, oh reading comprehension deficient one. I never claimed they were.

underwaterman says

your an expert whose to clue me in on economics

underwaterman says

Boy, I hope I used the words "you're and your" correctly here professor because we all know how important that is now.

Unfortunately...

underwaterman says

I think I'll keep my info private thank you.

underwaterman says

Here come the clowns into the thread derailing it making their usual attacks on the person, never the argument.

underwaterman says

I would suggest the one below. It gives a good overview of how the fed was formed secretely in 1910 by rich bankers

So, now you admit you have no strategy, just the same old, tired conspiracy of the Fed with the Gold Standard, but you can't get the Glenn Beck connection.

You should get a white board and put all the conspiracy theories up there to prove your point, it's what Glenn Beck does.

Now, you have nothing here that indicates you have any working knowledge about politics, or the economy, so there is nothing there to address.

You're making random comments about wages, or unemployment, maybe the federal deficit, that's always a good one, but nothing that ties it to the Gold Standard.

We have been over this before, repeatedly, on other threads you have high jacked.

So, this is another Real Estate thread; for you Real Estate is bad, gold is good. OK, we got that, and the personal attacks that you make against everybody, but you ultimately have nothing to say.

robertoaribas says

http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2012/01/23/survey-no-support-for-gold-standard-among-top-economists/

Nope. It is literally 0%!

Most of those guys and gals had previous funding from the FED, and aspire to be on the FED Board of Governors some day just like Bernanke the ex-and-future Princeton Professor. Interesting to note, one of them had the balls not to answer the question.

Congrats on your purchases. However, a 10% or so rental yield is not especially high. I'd think a couple years ago when everyone's crystal balls were cloudy, 20% rental yield should have been do-able. Is the current investments that you are making simply due to inertia and cash flow stream from the houses having to have a place to go?

underwaterman says

You know you just keep repeating things right?

That is exactly what you do.

You don't have any discussions, input, or information, it's just the same stalking, and insults.

I don't see why Roberto wastes his time responding to you, because you never have a come back, response, or clarity of thought.

underwaterman says

I noticed your quite obsessed with your investment and have an excessive need to let everyone know about it with practically each and every post whether it has anything to do with the topic or not. You are overcompensating because your insecure. Buying in a bubble of 2012 and sinking all your networth into houses in one market with the level of systemic risk in the economy and competing against all the other investors driving the bubble in phoenix should leave you give your pause for concern.

Presumably not remotely similar to you constantly talking about precious metals and how you went all in in 2012 using all that money you made selling your 5 houses in 2012, houses you bought in 2003, 2005 and 2006. It's also amusing how you think his 2012 purchases in Phoenix are buying in a bubble. What exactly were you thinking in 03/05/06?

underwaterman says

gold numeraire (which is real money)

Gold is a commodity. There is no gold money on the market today.'

That is what I mean by you repeating conspiracy theories.

We don't have hyper inflation which is just a fact of life.

Our government has printed tons of money, but there is no hyper inflation.

Hyper inflation isn't coming, deflation is.

This is a Real estate thread that you chose to high jack. It's boring, and without merit.

You have no point so there is nothing to address.

David Losh says

It's boring, and without merit.

Yeah, 12 minutes of 33 is all I can take on a Sunday, started watching a couple times before too.

All I can say is that if there is any 'systemic collapse' that we are still in danger of, it's going to kept a secret.

6 years is a long time to deal with anything.

underwaterman says

David9 says

All I can say is that if there is any 'systemic collapse' that we are still in danger of, it's going to kept a secret.

Don't think it is going to play out in secret.

Here, take a look at a simulation by james rickards, he's the guy that designed the first financial warfare simulations for the pentagon. It is 8 minutes and gives you some sense of how currency wars can play out:

This whole scenario is absurd. There is nothing to prevent COMEX declare Force Major and refuse delivery if anyone tries to corner the market like Hunts Brothers did. Better yet, 2000tons can be delivered over many years, just like what the USFED is doing to Germany's 300tons of their "own" gold. Even more importantly, there's nothing the Chinese leader would do when getting stiffed, just like the Germans government officials are not doing jack when getting "gently" stiffed. Even more than Angela Merkle, Chinese leaders actually have their kids in the US attending colleges. What? Bomb their own kids? It's ridiculous.

The trade deficit itself will reverse shortly as the US becomes the top oil and gas producer in the world, and manufacturing comes back to the US due to automation.

David Losh says

Gold is a commodity.

God is an even better one.

underwaterman says

hyperinflation is coming (read the article of the post your in dummy)

You should read the post. Hyperinflation had a chance, but it never materialized.

That is the problem. Hyperinflation isn't coming, but deflation is.

The global economy is contracting, we are past peak energy, and there is a real need for resource distribution.

The Deriviatives market stands a $1 Quadrillion, and that is another meaningless number.

You have nothing here.

The video itself has something to offer in terms of discussion, but you have only conspiracy theory hysteria to quote.

Move along back to your silver thread fantasies, and leave Real Estate alone, it obviously eludes you.

Reality says

The trade deficit itself will reverse shortly as the US becomes the top oil and gas producer in the world, and manufacturing comes back to the US due to automation.

These are valid points. What I think most conspiracy theory hysteria misses is that we are a global economy, with more transparency than there has been ever before.

The world is changing.

underwaterman says

For the comment about the COMEX James is explaining that if the chinese buy contracts on the COMEX and attempt to call them all in at once they will simply settle in cash because they have the ability to do so in the contract. Normally if a client has a futures contract and wants to take delivery the COMEX does this.

So in other words, it's a big Nothingburger. James Rickards is a book seller. If he is really as important to the Pentagon as he implies, the Pentagon wouldn't be allowing him to make all those noises.

Here's the bottom line:

1. If the Chinese really want to maximize the gold they can buy from the international market, they would be buying it quietly with minimal impact to price as possible. The idea of demanding delivery on 150,000 contracts (2000tons) all at once is more than absurd. And as I mentioned in my previous post, and Rickards admit, even if they did, it would be a Nothingburger as the rules of Comex is set up precisely to prevent such attempt at cornering the market. The Comex is a price discovery place for the industry, not a price manipulation place (although there are arguments for PTB manipulating it the other way; if you believe so, go pick up more gold for yourself, quietly)

2. The scenario that he presents goes off on a non-starter. The next assumption that the Chinese government would somehow resort to war of any sort for denied delivery is even more absurd. Frankly, even if the Chinese have its military watch all its gold, it can not guarantee some of it does not flow back to the US or some of the officials knowingly accept tungsten bars! That's how hopelessly corrupt the Chinese bureaucracy is. Ours are not much better, but given a choice, corrupt bureaucrats in either country would still prefer parking the rest of their lives and their personal wealth in the US than in China. We are not talking about US vs. Switzerland or vs.Cayman Island or even Canada here.

3. The Syrian response to Israeli bombing so far should give you a hint how those international hissy fits work. Big Nothingburger when one party is way too occupied with domestic issues. Just like the Syrian leader's top priority is ensuring he and his family would spend the rest of their lives abroad after their regime is toppled (therefore extremely unlikely to respond to Israeli attack), the Chinese leaders already have their family members in the US and other western countries as citizens of the newly adopted countries. What do you think they will do when their creeky regime is under international pressure? Big Nothingburger.

The coming "collapse" is not some kind of international war, but a financial collapse that will transfer even more of the damage to the creditors of the US government. There's nothing the creditors can do about it. That includes domestic and international bond holders, and cash holders, as well as holders of all sorts of promises by the governments of the world. A real war of any kind is however highly unlikely.

underwaterman says

They are already doing this and also buying gold mines. The scenarios are for the escalation of the currency wars and possibilities.

"This" meaning they are trying to get gold without driving up price. The so-called scenario is the exact opposite: presenting 150,000 contracts for delivery all at once would only drive up price without getting them any gold.]

underwaterman says

n fact, it seems to be following the beginning of the scenario with Isreal bombing Syria another middle eastern country similar to Iran.

And the Syrian response has been? The Syrian president doesn't even dare to call Israeli action as an act of war, for crying out loud. There is no WWIII if one side has no intention of fighting.

underwaterman says

The Chinese are already engaging in currency wars and executing computer attacks already against US companies like google and the US govt.

"Currency war" is no more a war than a "junkyard war." It's just a term that the government uses to cover up for its irresponsible debasement of local currency. The Chinese government hasn't even engaged in deliberate debasement of its own Yen lately. If anything, the Chinese Yen is artificially trading at a level much higher than what a free float would land it: millions of Chinese probably would prefer converting their savings to the US dollar. Computer network penentrations are the sort of things all governments waste their time on. The Chinese government is quite divided internally regarding relationship to Google, due to one faction's financial/censorship interest in a domestic competitor in China.

underwaterman says

History shows this is exactly how world wars get started by some small first attack that seems unimportant but escalates.

Also, there is Russia and China backing Syria not insignificant military powers.

History shows that there have been far more forecasts of world wars than actual world wars. You have to have two sides both think themselves can win before any major war can take place. In the current world, nobody is interested in engaging the US in a global war, aside from the infamous patsy "toilet" organization.

underwaterman says

I suggest you read the book or read up on what the end result is of currency wars and start listening to the people paid to predict them for the military.

The military has dozens and dozens of war scenarios at any given time. That's what the military is paid to do, and how they get funding.

Those countries holding the gold at the end of musical chairs wins.

King Darius of Persia must be wondering how he lost his empire to Alexander. Heck, how did Croesus lose his?

Countries are also going to need all those commodities to survive and is why China is spending it's time buying commodity companies all over the world and stockpile them

There is no real shortage of commodities in the world. The Chinese have been buying much in the last few years simply because they do not have better investment ideas. IMHO, in the long run, they will lose money on those hoards.

while the US is wasting away printing fake dollars trying to pump up the stock and housing markets. When the US needs those rare earth materials and can't have them how do you think they will get them?

Mine them and buy them. Rare earth material is not rare. It's all over the world, just takes time and effort to mine. The Chinese accounted for much of the world's production only because their labor used to be cheap and they didn't give a rat's ass about polluting their environment mining the stuff.

Do you see countries in the middle east at peace like Egypt or Syria because the currency wars are making food prices in those countries too expensive so the population implodes into civil war?

"Currency War" has no real meaning. Competitive devaluation between neighbors took place numerous times: Britain in the early 1990's, Agentina and Brazil every decade.

Civil war in some parts of the world is a possibility. The far more severe ones might be those in Russia (when commodity price collapses) and in China (when their communist party collapses). If those giant countries break up into smaller pieces, hopefully peacefully, it will be good thing for the rest of the world.

underwaterman says

You could have said this about Iraq. Look at the war we initiated on this "nothingburger" country with no nuclear weapons and how many years, lives, and money it costs to end up with just another corrupt govt there. The middle east is a hornets nest and is critical to US national interest of oil so it is anything but a "nothingburger" concern.

Nobody is talking about ground invading and occupying Syria. The so-called "scenario" talks about Russia and China coming to the aid of Iran and Syria in a massive stand-off. Well, guess what, they are not. Syria is bending over backwards to avoid a war.

As the US becomes the world's top oil and gas producer, the importance of middleast recedes into the background.

underwaterman says

It's more than that in terms of its effects on populations. From what I've read it leads to higher food prices in other less competitive countries like egypt and india. People starving because of our policies seems more than a "junkyard war" to me.

The so-called "currency war," i.e. deliberate devaluation of domestic currency, causes food price to rise in one's OWN country! It's a war by the government on its OWN people. It's not an international war as the war mongers would like you to believe.

underwaterman says

Probably one reason why the war will take place using currencies and other financial mechanisms in my opinion.

"Currency War" in the modern statist world has nothing to do with waging war on another country. It refers to the deliberate debasement of one's own currency. i.e. government waging war on its own people! They call competitive currency debasement "currency war" only as a way of putting lipstick on the pig so the regime's predatory action against its own people is dressed up in patriotism. Like the old saying goes, patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

Russia got caught sending in military people from one article I read to help train syria's military. It will be done covertly at first like this but doesn't mean it won't escalate or find other means to wage the war that can be just as bad for the population.

Russia is doing it for money; i.e. existing military contract. Russia is not keen on having a military conflict with the US. Nor are they capable of projecting power across Turkey, a member of NATO, or across Iraq, which has US military bases. These are the two countries interspacing Russia and Syria.

underwaterman says

I think terrorist organizations are definitely interested

In case my previous words: patsy "toilet" organization, was too obstuse, here's another hint: that same patsy calling-itself-"toilet"-in-native-language organization also seems to pop up wherever "our" military wants to go, like Afghanistan, Yemen, and now West Africa. . . and wouldn't you know it, they are actually fighting on "our" side in Lybia and Syria! A "war on terror" is not going to become WWIII. It's a boondoggle that has been going on for over a decade, and will in all likelihood continue as a low-intensity war all over the world paving ways for western military deployment everywhere. The long-term strategy seems to be denial of access to Russia and China, forcing them to fight each other over resources on their own mutual long border.

Given that enormous amount of oil and gas resources just made available thanks to new drilling technology, a war between them over the oil wells in the Stans and Siberia is not going to happen any time soon. Each of them is far more likely to fall apart from within due to their own domestic reasons.

Why are you people still debating under waterman? We've already established that he has no idea what he's talking about.

underwaterman says

Not according to James Rickards. We export inflation to other less developed countries first. I tend to believe him watching the arab spring appear with the QEs.

Richards is either an idiot or a propagandist, probably a mix of both. The developing countries feel the effect of dollar inflation because their currencies are linked to the dollar. i.e. their governments debase their currencies automatically whenever our FED does. It is their own government waging war against their own citizens through currency debasement along with ours. Nothing magical about it.

underwaterman says

There are many variables at play and why the run scenarios to find out what they are and plan for them. What is the interaction between currency wars and the international banking system? Derivatives? Etc?

That's all bullshit with a few fancy words thrown in that has nothing to do with the context.

underwaterman says

That's one interpretation. Another is that they are growing more aggressive against the US and you see this with Putin and his statements and actions in the press. They don't seem particularly scared of us anymore with wacko's like him running the govt.

Nationalism sells as a political device in just about any country. Putin is facing domestic political problems. A drop in oil price will make his position even less tenable. Would he dare to challenge the US directly? Not a chance, and even he knows it, just like the Chinese.

underwaterman says

Yeah that argument seems reasonable until one thinks of them building a dirty nuclear bomb or sabotaging a US nuclear facility here or even China and Russia accelerating their drone technology and giving it to whoever will buy it.

"Dirty bomb" is a mind trick giving wannabe terrorists a rope to hang themselves. Think about it, if a passerby can get radiation sickness from the material after it spreads, what do you think would happen to the builder of the device during assembly and transportation when the poor SOB has to be close to all the material for many hours? I suppose when things get really bad in Detroit, someone might want to wipe it off the map as a potential political liability. But that's long in the future if ever. Keep in mind, the clowns can't accomplish anything without agents helping them. In any case, I wouldn't buy any property near Detroit.

As for Russia and China, why would they want to sell any drone technology to anyone that can easily use it to bomb themselves? Both Russia and China have far more violent domestic muslim enclaves that demand independence. "Our" Al-CIA-da may well be funneling money to those organizations as standard destabilization procedures. Gosh knows, the Russian and Chinese regimes deserve it. Let's just hope the whole thing doesn't turn into another blow-back.

underwaterman says

From my experience, war can not be predicted and reading people like

Robert McNamara and his "The Fog of War" confirms my thesis that nothing is simple and predictable with war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fog_of_War

Do you know anything about the original military meaning of "Fog of War"? It has nothing to do with the strategic level outlook.

I don't think you have any personal experience on planning or conducting any military operation, real or simulated. So there is no "from my experience" to speak of.

McNamara was talking about the brain fog that every central planner that has micromanagement tendencies suffers from.

underwaterman says

The current thread is hyperinflation and it's causes and effects, not real estate.

I just checked, and this is in the Real Estate section.

It's here in the Real Estate section because the idea is that hyperinflation make the debt loads of things like mortgages look benign.

It's been discussed since 2008, but as much as the governments of the world try hyperinflation hasn't happened, and didn't happen.

We all wish it would, but the facts indicate otherwise.

Reality says

the Chinese Yen is artificially trading at a level much higher than what a free float would land it:

That would be the Chinese Yuan, Yen is Japanese.

underwaterman says

It is a counter-currency against all other currencies that are being devalued worldwide in currency wars at this moment.

Gold isn't a counter currency, and never will be. We are shipping Germany's gold because Germany needs gold to prop up their own currency, the same as the Chinese are doing.

It's a trick for the feeble minded who think gold has value.

The United States on the other hand has energy resources. The United States has a robust economy which is what you are trying to say, but you don't know what you are saying.

Fighting wars economically is a Viet Nam era 1970s theory. We have engaged in economic warfare ever since then.

Currencies fell by the wayside with the creation of the Euro, the fall of Russia, and the rise of the rupee in India.

underwaterman says

Those are the ones that had a benign ending. I worry about the ones like the Weimar Republic currency fiasco setting the stage for a Hitler to rise to power.

This is the ultimate nut job, Glenn Beck, rational for gold.

Kevin says

Why are you people still debating under waterman?

Because underwaterman is everywhere you don't want him, or her.

He, or she throws up six comments to make some random points, and kills any thread he, or she, goes to.

You can ignore him, or her, but that leaves the threads disjointed.

The purpose of the rantings is unclear, but it might as well run it's course.

underwaterman says

my study of the stupidity and danger of war

That's rich. The military has been a profession since time began.

You're now trying to fit military terms into your conspiracies about the economy, or more specificly about currencies compared to gold.

underwaterman says

I'm now ignoring you

Then ignore me so I can attack your crazy ideas all I want without having you responding to it.

underwaterman says

He is quite intelligent and I know this because I've been following him for over 2 years now

Really not a great recommendation.

underwaterman says

We are currently in a currency war

You haven't presented any facts to that, just opinions about a "currency war." That currency war concept died in the 1990s.

Just look at what was the Yuan, Ruble, or Euro before the economic crisis, and the rise of the Rupee since then.

There is no currency war. There was some saber rattling about the petro dollars, and reserve currency, but that faded with the lack of economic ability of countries like Russia, or China, or Europe for that matter.

Face it, we are in a global economc contraction which blows your theories to heck.

underwaterman says

I think if terrorists can think outside the box and turn 2 airplanes into weapons and bring down two large skyscrapers in New York they can figure out how to build a dirty bomb or construct a home made drone with a bomb or find a way to blow up a nuclear plant.

That sure sounds like a conspiracy theory to me.

At the same time there is nothing to say that with the proper cooperation governments can't fix the global economy so that "terrorists" don't feel the need to attack.

Give it a bloody rest, why don't you?

underwaterman says

And James Rickards is neither an idiot nor a propagandist. He is quite intelligent and I know this because I've been following him for over 2 years now.

This is a joke, right? I have read James Rickards articles for over a decade. The guy has been a metal bull for a long time, but the war nonsense is recent. Here's some clue for you: I bought bulk silver for the first time in the year 2000, at around $4 per ounce. First purchase was a 1000oz bar off someone disappointed by the Y2K Nothingburger.

underwaterman says

I think if terrorists can think outside the box and turn 2 airplanes into weapons and bring down two large skyscrapers in New York they can figure out how to build a dirty bomb or construct a home made drone with a bomb or find a way to blow up a nuclear plant. You can over-analyze why they couldn't all your want but it doesn't affect the reality and risk of it happening.

Even "terrorists" have to operate within the laws of physics. The "terrorists" don't do original inventions. They follow the scenarios already laid out by the likes of Rand Corporation and Tom Clancy novels. Using airliners as flying missles was a plot element for nearly a decade before being carried out for real.

"Dirty Bomb" is an idea for the the really gullible. If you believe that, you might believe the "walking dirty bomb" where the "terrorist" swallows highly radioactive material and irradiates others on public transportation through his guts. LOL. That will work even better than selling overly sensitive explosive material to bomb makers . . . at killing wannabe terrorists. That will teach them a lesson: don't become a terrorist, the government doesn't like competition.