patrick.net

underwaterman says

I suggest you read the book or read up on what the end result is of currency wars and start listening to the people paid to predict them for the military.

The military has dozens and dozens of war scenarios at any given time. That's what the military is paid to do, and how they get funding.

Those countries holding the gold at the end of musical chairs wins.

King Darius of Persia must be wondering how he lost his empire to Alexander. Heck, how did Croesus lose his?

Countries are also going to need all those commodities to survive and is why China is spending it's time buying commodity companies all over the world and stockpile them

There is no real shortage of commodities in the world. The Chinese have been buying much in the last few years simply because they do not have better investment ideas. IMHO, in the long run, they will lose money on those hoards.

while the US is wasting away printing fake dollars trying to pump up the stock and housing markets. When the US needs those rare earth materials and can't have them how do you think they will get them?

Mine them and buy them. Rare earth material is not rare. It's all over the world, just takes time and effort to mine. The Chinese accounted for much of the world's production only because their labor used to be cheap and they didn't give a rat's ass about polluting their environment mining the stuff.

Do you see countries in the middle east at peace like Egypt or Syria because the currency wars are making food prices in those countries too expensive so the population implodes into civil war?

"Currency War" has no real meaning. Competitive devaluation between neighbors took place numerous times: Britain in the early 1990's, Agentina and Brazil every decade.

Civil war in some parts of the world is a possibility. The far more severe ones might be those in Russia (when commodity price collapses) and in China (when their communist party collapses). If those giant countries break up into smaller pieces, hopefully peacefully, it will be good thing for the rest of the world.

underwaterman says

You could have said this about Iraq. Look at the war we initiated on this "nothingburger" country with no nuclear weapons and how many years, lives, and money it costs to end up with just another corrupt govt there. The middle east is a hornets nest and is critical to US national interest of oil so it is anything but a "nothingburger" concern.

Nobody is talking about ground invading and occupying Syria. The so-called "scenario" talks about Russia and China coming to the aid of Iran and Syria in a massive stand-off. Well, guess what, they are not. Syria is bending over backwards to avoid a war.

As the US becomes the world's top oil and gas producer, the importance of middleast recedes into the background.

underwaterman says

It's more than that in terms of its effects on populations. From what I've read it leads to higher food prices in other less competitive countries like egypt and india. People starving because of our policies seems more than a "junkyard war" to me.

The so-called "currency war," i.e. deliberate devaluation of domestic currency, causes food price to rise in one's OWN country! It's a war by the government on its OWN people. It's not an international war as the war mongers would like you to believe.

underwaterman says

Probably one reason why the war will take place using currencies and other financial mechanisms in my opinion.

"Currency War" in the modern statist world has nothing to do with waging war on another country. It refers to the deliberate debasement of one's own currency. i.e. government waging war on its own people! They call competitive currency debasement "currency war" only as a way of putting lipstick on the pig so the regime's predatory action against its own people is dressed up in patriotism. Like the old saying goes, patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

Russia got caught sending in military people from one article I read to help train syria's military. It will be done covertly at first like this but doesn't mean it won't escalate or find other means to wage the war that can be just as bad for the population.

Russia is doing it for money; i.e. existing military contract. Russia is not keen on having a military conflict with the US. Nor are they capable of projecting power across Turkey, a member of NATO, or across Iraq, which has US military bases. These are the two countries interspacing Russia and Syria.

underwaterman says

I think terrorist organizations are definitely interested

In case my previous words: patsy "toilet" organization, was too obstuse, here's another hint: that same patsy calling-itself-"toilet"-in-native-language organization also seems to pop up wherever "our" military wants to go, like Afghanistan, Yemen, and now West Africa. . . and wouldn't you know it, they are actually fighting on "our" side in Lybia and Syria! A "war on terror" is not going to become WWIII. It's a boondoggle that has been going on for over a decade, and will in all likelihood continue as a low-intensity war all over the world paving ways for western military deployment everywhere. The long-term strategy seems to be denial of access to Russia and China, forcing them to fight each other over resources on their own mutual long border.

Given that enormous amount of oil and gas resources just made available thanks to new drilling technology, a war between them over the oil wells in the Stans and Siberia is not going to happen any time soon. Each of them is far more likely to fall apart from within due to their own domestic reasons.

Why are you people still debating under waterman? We've already established that he has no idea what he's talking about.

underwaterman says

Not according to James Rickards. We export inflation to other less developed countries first. I tend to believe him watching the arab spring appear with the QEs.

Richards is either an idiot or a propagandist, probably a mix of both. The developing countries feel the effect of dollar inflation because their currencies are linked to the dollar. i.e. their governments debase their currencies automatically whenever our FED does. It is their own government waging war against their own citizens through currency debasement along with ours. Nothing magical about it.

underwaterman says

There are many variables at play and why the run scenarios to find out what they are and plan for them. What is the interaction between currency wars and the international banking system? Derivatives? Etc?

That's all bullshit with a few fancy words thrown in that has nothing to do with the context.

underwaterman says

That's one interpretation. Another is that they are growing more aggressive against the US and you see this with Putin and his statements and actions in the press. They don't seem particularly scared of us anymore with wacko's like him running the govt.

Nationalism sells as a political device in just about any country. Putin is facing domestic political problems. A drop in oil price will make his position even less tenable. Would he dare to challenge the US directly? Not a chance, and even he knows it, just like the Chinese.

underwaterman says

Yeah that argument seems reasonable until one thinks of them building a dirty nuclear bomb or sabotaging a US nuclear facility here or even China and Russia accelerating their drone technology and giving it to whoever will buy it.

"Dirty bomb" is a mind trick giving wannabe terrorists a rope to hang themselves. Think about it, if a passerby can get radiation sickness from the material after it spreads, what do you think would happen to the builder of the device during assembly and transportation when the poor SOB has to be close to all the material for many hours? I suppose when things get really bad in Detroit, someone might want to wipe it off the map as a potential political liability. But that's long in the future if ever. Keep in mind, the clowns can't accomplish anything without agents helping them. In any case, I wouldn't buy any property near Detroit.

As for Russia and China, why would they want to sell any drone technology to anyone that can easily use it to bomb themselves? Both Russia and China have far more violent domestic muslim enclaves that demand independence. "Our" Al-CIA-da may well be funneling money to those organizations as standard destabilization procedures. Gosh knows, the Russian and Chinese regimes deserve it. Let's just hope the whole thing doesn't turn into another blow-back.

underwaterman says

From my experience, war can not be predicted and reading people like

Robert McNamara and his "The Fog of War" confirms my thesis that nothing is simple and predictable with war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fog_of_War

Do you know anything about the original military meaning of "Fog of War"? It has nothing to do with the strategic level outlook.

I don't think you have any personal experience on planning or conducting any military operation, real or simulated. So there is no "from my experience" to speak of.

McNamara was talking about the brain fog that every central planner that has micromanagement tendencies suffers from.

underwaterman says

The current thread is hyperinflation and it's causes and effects, not real estate.

I just checked, and this is in the Real Estate section.

It's here in the Real Estate section because the idea is that hyperinflation make the debt loads of things like mortgages look benign.

It's been discussed since 2008, but as much as the governments of the world try hyperinflation hasn't happened, and didn't happen.

We all wish it would, but the facts indicate otherwise.

Reality says

the Chinese Yen is artificially trading at a level much higher than what a free float would land it:

That would be the Chinese Yuan, Yen is Japanese.

underwaterman says

It is a counter-currency against all other currencies that are being devalued worldwide in currency wars at this moment.

Gold isn't a counter currency, and never will be. We are shipping Germany's gold because Germany needs gold to prop up their own currency, the same as the Chinese are doing.

It's a trick for the feeble minded who think gold has value.

The United States on the other hand has energy resources. The United States has a robust economy which is what you are trying to say, but you don't know what you are saying.

Fighting wars economically is a Viet Nam era 1970s theory. We have engaged in economic warfare ever since then.

Currencies fell by the wayside with the creation of the Euro, the fall of Russia, and the rise of the rupee in India.

underwaterman says

Those are the ones that had a benign ending. I worry about the ones like the Weimar Republic currency fiasco setting the stage for a Hitler to rise to power.

This is the ultimate nut job, Glenn Beck, rational for gold.

Kevin says

Why are you people still debating under waterman?

Because underwaterman is everywhere you don't want him, or her.

He, or she throws up six comments to make some random points, and kills any thread he, or she, goes to.

You can ignore him, or her, but that leaves the threads disjointed.

The purpose of the rantings is unclear, but it might as well run it's course.

underwaterman says

my study of the stupidity and danger of war

That's rich. The military has been a profession since time began.

You're now trying to fit military terms into your conspiracies about the economy, or more specificly about currencies compared to gold.

underwaterman says

I'm now ignoring you

Then ignore me so I can attack your crazy ideas all I want without having you responding to it.

underwaterman says

He is quite intelligent and I know this because I've been following him for over 2 years now

Really not a great recommendation.

underwaterman says

We are currently in a currency war

You haven't presented any facts to that, just opinions about a "currency war." That currency war concept died in the 1990s.

Just look at what was the Yuan, Ruble, or Euro before the economic crisis, and the rise of the Rupee since then.

There is no currency war. There was some saber rattling about the petro dollars, and reserve currency, but that faded with the lack of economic ability of countries like Russia, or China, or Europe for that matter.

Face it, we are in a global economc contraction which blows your theories to heck.

underwaterman says

I think if terrorists can think outside the box and turn 2 airplanes into weapons and bring down two large skyscrapers in New York they can figure out how to build a dirty bomb or construct a home made drone with a bomb or find a way to blow up a nuclear plant.

That sure sounds like a conspiracy theory to me.

At the same time there is nothing to say that with the proper cooperation governments can't fix the global economy so that "terrorists" don't feel the need to attack.

Give it a bloody rest, why don't you?

underwaterman says

And James Rickards is neither an idiot nor a propagandist. He is quite intelligent and I know this because I've been following him for over 2 years now.

This is a joke, right? I have read James Rickards articles for over a decade. The guy has been a metal bull for a long time, but the war nonsense is recent. Here's some clue for you: I bought bulk silver for the first time in the year 2000, at around $4 per ounce. First purchase was a 1000oz bar off someone disappointed by the Y2K Nothingburger.

underwaterman says

I think if terrorists can think outside the box and turn 2 airplanes into weapons and bring down two large skyscrapers in New York they can figure out how to build a dirty bomb or construct a home made drone with a bomb or find a way to blow up a nuclear plant. You can over-analyze why they couldn't all your want but it doesn't affect the reality and risk of it happening.

Even "terrorists" have to operate within the laws of physics. The "terrorists" don't do original inventions. They follow the scenarios already laid out by the likes of Rand Corporation and Tom Clancy novels. Using airliners as flying missles was a plot element for nearly a decade before being carried out for real.

"Dirty Bomb" is an idea for the the really gullible. If you believe that, you might believe the "walking dirty bomb" where the "terrorist" swallows highly radioactive material and irradiates others on public transportation through his guts. LOL. That will work even better than selling overly sensitive explosive material to bomb makers . . . at killing wannabe terrorists. That will teach them a lesson: don't become a terrorist, the government doesn't like competition.