patrick.net

The message I take from this article is that it is horrible time to buy a home but a great time to sell one if you live in the Bay Area.

"At the same time, Portola Valley, Atherton and Palo Alto - with million-dollar-plus median values that now exceed their boom-time heights - should see appreciation above 12 percent, Zillow said."

Well, didn't I mention this in the other thread? It's all about location, location, location. @Patrick just keeps saying look at your rent vs. buy ratio, but doesn't factor in the appreciation these Fortress markets have been enjoying for decades. Had Patrick bought in 1998, he would have been sitting pretty now instead of creating this website for us to chat, argue and whine.

SFace says

contrary to popular belief. (The expensive areas have ways to fall back in 2010/2011)

The takeaway is zip codes that are the last to fall are the first to rise. This is always the case in any corner of the world.

I fought Patrick for years to not let the buy/rent calculator dictate your decision as it is useless. The calculator says buy in the Ghetto and don't buy in prime, that's it. It gives the wrong/opposite signals. Here is the proof why.

This is generally true but expensive areas can fall back more on nominal values (not percentage.) If you can afford it, expensive areas always have higher ceiling. Theoretically, a rent vs. buy calculator can work but the appreciation/depreciation part is anybody's guess.