patrick.net

robertoaribas says

I sold in 2005... you held on

You keep making this assertion when in fact I did sell in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

We've been over that, a dozen times.

Many people hide in acedamia.

Here in the real world we make money.

Stick with the college gig.

My advice is always correct. It's based on the real world rather than theory.

OK, college professor, we will be starting a new ad campaign this next month which should increase our business another 30%. How much increase will you get with that Real Estate license? Not too much I suspect with that low inventory, multiple offer thing going on.

Do the math.

BTW, taking a comment out of context of the thread seems to be a constant with you.

robertoaribas says

you clean toilets and carpets!!!

Most importantly, we don't clean carpets. I bought the van, but found it unprofitable because of too much competition. So We ripped out the carpet cleaning machine sold it for what we could get, and coverted the van to hauling. We did hauling until the van was paid for and made a good profit, but it has been sitting for three years because that cleaning toilets thing pays very well.

You should read more about me, keep up the research.

Gentlemen,

Let's agree that David and Roberto will probably never be great friends.

And now, let's get back to the original focus of the thread: what the heck happened in 2012 that wasn't happening in 2011 that cause inventory to absolutely collapse?

The frenzy in my area only seems to be building over the last few weeks. It certainly feels like 2004 all over again.

Set Phoenix aside for a moment... why should we feel comfortable about current pricing in the Bay Area? What if it goes up another 20%? Which it'll probably do by July at this rate...

I think current pricing is insane in the Bay Area and SoCal. Buying in at the asking prices right now is lunacy (I'm a new home owner btw).

gregpfielding says

Set Phoenix aside for a moment... why should we feel comfortable about current pricing in the Bay Area? What if it goes up another 20%? Which it'll probably do by July at this rate...

People shouldn't, but if someone ends up paying more than they can reasonably afford this time around, then they've really only got themselves to blame.

robertoaribas says

Now, to make the counter argument, the high priced areas could get hit real hard in a future crash, if it was enough of a recession to hurt the people who would buy or rent there, and or if rates went up a lot.

On the flip-side, the US just went through a pretty major recession and the collapse of a very substantial housing bubble and yet housing in the BA has still come out the other side in pretty robust condition.

The inventory collapse was pretty clear though. First prices collapsed and sellers wanted the good pricing of 2007.

There was a house in a prime area of Seattle the buyer paid too much for in 2006, and had tried to sell without bringing money to the table. A local agent had it for sale for like a year, but it sold for asking price.

That was a couple of years ago, and since then others in that area, it's called Ballard, have sold absolute dog properties for full price.

Then the bidding wars started.

I think this last price push will bring sellers off the fence. There are moves a seller could make to be better positioned in the market place here in Seattle.

So, I think sellers were waiting for this window, and may even wait until prices peak, and start to decline.

gregpfielding says

The frenzy in my area only seems to be building over the last few weeks. It certainly feels like 2004 all over again.

I think your a good agent, and I like the blog you have listed, it's good, balanced information.

I love the Bay Area. I love San Francisco. A lot of people do.

If you are doing International business with Asia you want a Bay Area address. I think some of the speculation about cash flowing into the Bay Area is very true.

There is also a ton of tech money to be made. Microsoft talks about being unable to fill really high paying jobs. I think if some one had a choice to work here or the Bay Area, they would choose the beach proximity.

Many of the workers who come here from India have family money, and obscene profits from Real Estate in India.

I think the constant demand for the Bay Area is a no brainer, and don't really see it collapsing.

robertoaribas says

I certainly didn't see the explosive price rises coming, I don't think either of us saw that coming...

I think nobody really saw it coming because there is no fundamental reason for it. The economy didn't massively improve all of a sudden in January of 2012. Yeah, foreclosures and negative equity were falling, but it was gradual.

There isn't any logical reason why the swing upwards should be so violent.

More specifically, higher prices should be incentive for sellers, especially struggling sellers, to sell. Yet they aren't. Perhaps all of these 2 and 3% refi's have had a bigger impact on market dynamics than we realize. Nobody wants to sell.

If we can figure out why this is happening, then we can figure out when it'll change again. Until then, we are all just guessing.

It was the rate crash- werent rates for 30yr fixed at 5+% 2 years ago. Now 3.5 or so.

I bought last year with a 5 year IO arm at 2.8% - pmt is 2500 a month for tax+intrest which is 1800 a month after tax break.

This house would cost 3500 to 4k a month to rent. I checked union bank for same loan and its even lower now 2.75%
If you have 20% down this loan lets u live cheap. There is no intrest rate risk - if rates sky my other funds in the bank will return hopefully 5% on a cd (im dreaming!)

gregpfielding says

Nobody wants to sell.

In your area, maybe not, but there was an article today about rising inventory:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100577800

gregpfielding says

You sir, are beyond fixing.

The writing seems to have brought up an area of sensitivity.

Anyone know about the las vegas market here?

I would prefer to live there than AZ. (more whores!)

It seems like cashing out of CA with 1m+ I could easily buy a buncha 10 cap rate properties and make the same salary as here and play landlord instead of pretending to work all day in an office.

robertoaribas says

Yes, longer term we are just guessing. However, short to medium turn, no guessing necessary.

Completely agree. Prices are going to rally here in the Bay Area at least through this year.