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The 2012 Inventory Collapse


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2013 Mar 14, 5:11am   28,557 views  96 comments

by gregpfielding   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Normally inventory grows during the first half of the year, except in 2012 it didn't. Inventory in the Bay Area shrunk for every consecutive month, resulting in multiple offers and prices taking off.

It looks like inventory would have to double just for the market to stabilize.

What changed at the end of 2011 or beginning of 2012 that caused potential sellers to decide to hold off?

http://www.bayarearealestatetrends.com/2013/03/housing-inventory-up-in-march/

#housing

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92   PockyClipsNow   2013 Mar 21, 2:56am  

It was the rate crash- werent rates for 30yr fixed at 5+% 2 years ago. Now 3.5 or so.

I bought last year with a 5 year IO arm at 2.8% - pmt is 2500 a month for tax+intrest which is 1800 a month after tax break.

This house would cost 3500 to 4k a month to rent. I checked union bank for same loan and its even lower now 2.75%
If you have 20% down this loan lets u live cheap. There is no intrest rate risk - if rates sky my other funds in the bank will return hopefully 5% on a cd (im dreaming!)

93   David Losh   2013 Mar 21, 3:21am  

gregpfielding says

Nobody wants to sell.

In your area, maybe not, but there was an article today about rising inventory:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100577800

94   FunTime   2013 Mar 21, 4:19am  

gregpfielding says

You sir, are beyond fixing.

The writing seems to have brought up an area of sensitivity.

95   PockyClipsNow   2013 Mar 21, 4:39am  

Anyone know about the las vegas market here?

I would prefer to live there than AZ. (more whores!)

It seems like cashing out of CA with 1m+ I could easily buy a buncha 10 cap rate properties and make the same salary as here and play landlord instead of pretending to work all day in an office.

96   gregpfielding   2013 Mar 21, 1:25pm  

robertoaribas says

Yes, longer term we are just guessing. However, short to medium turn, no guessing necessary.

Completely agree. Prices are going to rally here in the Bay Area at least through this year.

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