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Home prices still 50% too low in Bay Area - rent STILL cost twice the mortgage.


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2013 Mar 28, 3:45am   51,464 views  157 comments

by PockyClipsNow   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

So my friend is moving up there with his tech job. (they moved the factory workers to china, moved R&D/management to bay area. nice huh!).

I ran the numbers and if you buy a 1m home you live there for under 2000 a month.

A similar rental home costs upwards of 4000 a month.

Heres two examples:
average 3 bedroom home in redwood city asking 4000 for rent:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/3690240753.html

average 3 bd home in same city which SOLD for 1m.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-City/923-Emerald-Hill-Rd-94061/home/1700223

Now this type of loan is not for the NINJAs (no 20% dp), nor for scardey cats who worry about interest rate increases and great depression #4 coming. (I guess those people are called renters.)

Purchase Price: 1,000,000
Loan Amount: 729,000
Down Payment: 271,000

3 year IO ARM from unionbank.com is 2.75% right now.

Int pmt = 1670 a month
prop tax = 1041 a month (slightly off im using LA county tax rate at 1.25%)
Principal Pmt = 0 (feel free to pay off early or make double pmts but not required)

Assuming you are in the tax bracket of 28% effective then after taxes your payment is:

1952 a month. (half the rent)

(yes we know there are repairs and the wife will want to remodel this is called home ownership, mostly people sell for more than they bought that is why they pour$ into it. Also it beats buying a bunch of old BMW's to pour $ into for most people.)

This is why you see a frenzy of buying- and it wont stop anytime soon. If rates spike in the future that does not change the fact that RIGHT NOW this is how the numbers add up. Who the hell knows what will happen in the future?! It comes down to this: Pick a payment 2k or 4k a month and live with the consequences. Obviously renting was the wrong choice from 09 to 2012 - and it looks to be a poor choice now if you have a large down payment and are not a genius stock picker.

#housing

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146   FortWayne   2013 Apr 5, 2:13am  

David Losh says

Not now, why should they? California is living the dream of an influx of foriegn investment.

Oh I don't know, I think CA is on a decline. We have way too many pension obligations guaranteed, and way too few children to propagate the future.

San Francisco might be all right financially, though sounds like it costs an arm and a leg to live there, but it's where all the smart people are heading, but rest of the state is in trouble I tell you.

147   RentingForHalfTheCost   2013 Apr 5, 9:52am  

chanakya4773 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

good read is "The Next 100 Years" by George Friedman. He makes a good argument why the population growth in developing countries will turn negative pretty quickly. My opinion is quicker than even he thinks. If you remove the immigrants we are already there organically.

also , in 100 years we all in this board are going to die so why not just give up already....

Yah, but I do have some focus on what I am leaving my kids. And then what they leave their kids. My parents screwed me over with their giant ponzi benefit schemes and so far looks like I am doing the same for my kids. Hopefully, by the time I check out I can say I left them at least as good as was given to me.

148   RentingForHalfTheCost   2013 Apr 5, 10:02am  

FortWayne says

San Francisco might be all right financially, though sounds like it costs an arm and a leg to live there, but it's where all the smart people are heading, but rest of the state is in trouble I tell you.

Have you spent any time in San Francisco. There are smart people for sure, but they are not the majority. A lot of silver spoon yuppies that would be homeless if not for the trust fund. There is a medium size population of hard workers, but they have slowly but surely gotten squeezed out.

Go there on a week night and you'll see the hard workers dropping Benny's like they owned the place. They don't understand why everyone didn't have their parents to pay for their degrees, buy their first car, and set them up in a home. It was all too easy. The odd thing is they think they had it rough. They make themselves feel better buy giving a few bucks to the homeless every once in a while.

In a way this is what makes SF so nice as well. These same fortunately people are hardly criminal. They flinch at any sight of violence. An emotional episode is when they curse under their breath after missing the last cable car home on a late Monday night. Even when getting up early Tuesday morning is not really necessary. Their paycheck is dwarfed by what their grandparents left them anyway.

I hate them, but at the same time which I was one. ;)

149   inflection point   2013 Apr 6, 10:44am  

High speed rail and welfare. California has a long way to fall.

150   CameronCrazy   2013 Apr 10, 12:06am  

robertoaribas says

I bought 1405 e Atlanta drive in 85040 for $46K...

Is this the property you’re talking about: http://1.usa.gov/ZESUUP

Needless to say, you’re a genius, Fields Medal-winning mathematician and I’m just a stupid Duke University student, but why do Maricopa County records show you bought 1405 E Atlanta Ave Phoenix 85040 for $121,900 in 10/2008? Does $46K = $121,900? And why does it show the bank foreclosed on you on 8/2010 in the amount of $126,362 and you needed a Special Warranty Deed to reclaim it?

I don’t know because I’m an idiot. I’m trying to use a calculator but the power button just turns the TV on and off. Please help!

151   Bigsby   2013 Apr 10, 12:15am  

CameronCrazy says

robertoaribas says

I bought 1405 e Atlanta drive in 85040 for $46K...

Is this the property you’re talking about: http://1.usa.gov/ZESUUP

Needless to say, you’re a genius, Fields Medal-winning mathematician and I’m just a stupid Duke University student, but why do Maricopa County records show you bought 1405 E Atlanta Ave Phoenix 85040 for $121,900 in 10/2008? Does $46K = $121,900? And why does it show the bank foreclosed on you on 8/2010 in the amount of $126,362 and you needed a Special Warranty Deed to reclaim it?

I don’t know because I’m an idiot. I’m trying to use a calculator but the power button just turns the TV on and off. Please help!

Looks rather like the sale price for someone else before the property was foreclosed on in 2010, wouldn't you say? Does his deed date not say 6/17/2011? I know you are trying to score one over Roberto, but I'd hazard a guess that you are rather off target on this one.

152   CameronCrazy   2013 Apr 10, 12:26am  

Bigsby says

Looks rather like the sale price before the property was foreclosed on in 2010 and presumably Roberto then bought it. I know you are trying to score one over Roberto, but I'd hazard a guess that you are rather off target on this one.

Then it's interesting that there's no record of a sale after the foreclosure, let alone one for $46K.

153   Bigsby   2013 Apr 10, 12:32am  

CameronCrazy says

Bigsby says

Looks rather like the sale price before the property was foreclosed on in 2010 and presumably Roberto then bought it. I know you are trying to score one over Roberto, but I'd hazard a guess that you are rather off target on this one.

Then it's interesting that there's no record of a sale after the foreclosure, let alone one for $46K.

Why is the deed recorded for June 2011 then?

154   CameronCrazy   2013 Apr 10, 12:49am  

Bigsby says

Why is the deed recorded for June 2011 then?

That's when the Special Warranty Deed was signed and the property was reclaimed. I'm sure I could find a copy of the deed before you could find any record of that property being sold for $46,000.

155   Bigsby   2013 Apr 10, 12:35pm  

CameronCrazy says

Bigsby says

Why is the deed recorded for June 2011 then?

That's when the Special Warranty Deed was signed and the property was reclaimed. I'm sure I could find a copy of the deed before you could find any record of that property being sold for $46,000.

Go ahead then as you seem set on trying to show he is lying. As for myself, I was under the impression that a special warranty deed is what the bank would give Roberto when he purchased the property from them so as to limit their liability.

156   David Losh   2013 Apr 11, 12:48am  

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

People talk about the Valley miracle as if it was a miracle.

What the fuck? Detailed, on the spot analysis of a boom era from APOCALYSEFUCK?

Nicely put!

157   Mobi   2013 Apr 11, 2:26am  

FortWayne says

Oh I don't know, I think CA is on a decline. We have way too many pension
obligations guaranteed, and way too few children to propagate the future.

This. CA will have a problem reducing tax before they figure out ways to tackle public pension and medical cost. Every other state, too, but I think CA is in a deeper hole than some other states.

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