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Home prices still 50% too low in Bay Area - rent STILL cost twice the mortgage.
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2013 Mar 28, 3:45am 51,985 views 157 comments
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156
David Losh
2013 Apr 11, 12:48am
David Losh
2013 Apr 11, 12:48am
APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
People talk about the Valley miracle as if it was a miracle.
What the fuck? Detailed, on the spot analysis of a boom era from APOCALYSEFUCK?
Nicely put!
157
Mobi
2013 Apr 11, 2:26am
Oh I don't know, I think CA is on a decline. We have way too many pension
obligations guaranteed, and way too few children to propagate the future.
This. CA will have a problem reducing tax before they figure out ways to tackle public pension and medical cost. Every other state, too, but I think CA is in a deeper hole than some other states.
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So my friend is moving up there with his tech job. (they moved the factory workers to china, moved R&D/management to bay area. nice huh!).
I ran the numbers and if you buy a 1m home you live there for under 2000 a month.
A similar rental home costs upwards of 4000 a month.
Heres two examples:
average 3 bedroom home in redwood city asking 4000 for rent:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/3690240753.html
average 3 bd home in same city which SOLD for 1m.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-City/923-Emerald-Hill-Rd-94061/home/1700223
Now this type of loan is not for the NINJAs (no 20% dp), nor for scardey cats who worry about interest rate increases and great depression #4 coming. (I guess those people are called renters.)
Purchase Price: 1,000,000
Loan Amount: 729,000
Down Payment: 271,000
3 year IO ARM from unionbank.com is 2.75% right now.
Int pmt = 1670 a month
prop tax = 1041 a month (slightly off im using LA county tax rate at 1.25%)
Principal Pmt = 0 (feel free to pay off early or make double pmts but not required)
Assuming you are in the tax bracket of 28% effective then after taxes your payment is:
1952 a month. (half the rent)
(yes we know there are repairs and the wife will want to remodel this is called home ownership, mostly people sell for more than they bought that is why they pour$ into it. Also it beats buying a bunch of old BMW's to pour $ into for most people.)
This is why you see a frenzy of buying- and it wont stop anytime soon. If rates spike in the future that does not change the fact that RIGHT NOW this is how the numbers add up. Who the hell knows what will happen in the future?! It comes down to this: Pick a payment 2k or 4k a month and live with the consequences. Obviously renting was the wrong choice from 09 to 2012 - and it looks to be a poor choice now if you have a large down payment and are not a genius stock picker.
#housing