patrick.net

CDon says

im soo glad I didn't buy when the home bottomed at 400K! Instead, I waited, and
scooped it up on the cheap 6 years later at 430K - ha ha!!!"

Exactly and meanwhile even at conservative $2,000 a month in rent, they dropped $144,000 in rent while price went up "only" $30,000 - a truly terrible decision from Lifetime Housing Costs perspective.

E-man says

Borrowing $1M at 6% interest rate is the same as borrowing $2M at 3%. For high network clients, they can borrow $1M at 1.25% from Interactive Brokers, or 2.2% at Charles Schwab.

No, it is not the same. The interest you pay will be close but the principal on the $2m loan is twice as much. You will end up paying roughly 50% more on the $2m loan. Borrowing $1m at 6% is close to $1.4m at 3%.

JodyChunder says

BayArea says

Kudos to the folks that got in during 2010-2011 when the prices and interest rates were low.

I'd wait before lavishing those kudos, kiddo...until those same market wunderkinds liquidate their stock just before the next shitstorm.

I'm not sure what your getting at here. Unless you think prices will drop below 2010-2011 levels, they can liquidate at anytime they choose. By the looks of things today, they got quite the cushion.

CDon says

Witness our esteemed host Patrick who decided to "wait" and not buy in 1999 when homes in Palo Alto were going for 600K-800K. He sat and waited as PA homes zoomed past 1M going to 1.5M at the 2007 peak.

He finally got his vindication for waiting as PA homes eventually dropped a few percentage points, down to 1.3M or so at the bottom. But did that realistically work out well for him? Passing on a home at 800K, only to buy it 14 years later at 1.3Million? Its no surprise that he still rents, and likely will do so forever as PA has been pushed out of reach.

A broken clock is right twice a day and liar realtor tells the truth once in a blue moon when he says buy now or forever be priced out (assuming the time is 1999, the place is Palo Alto, and he is talking to Patrick)?

That begs the question. If income and inflation are accounted for, how does $800K in 1999 compare to $1.3M in 2013?

BayArea says

If income and inflation are accounted for, how does $800K in 1999 compare to $1.3M in 2013?

Considering ONLY inflation, 800K in 1999 should be about 1.115 million in 2113. If we take into consideration incomes, then I would not know...

BayArea says

I'm not sure what your getting at here. Unless you think prices will drop below 2010-2011 levels, they can liquidate at anytime they choose.

Yes, I think that.