patrick.net

in less than a month, 3 companies announced layoffs (zynga, netapp and symantec). Do you think the trend will continue???

If you are really concerned about employment you should avoid buying a house. That is unless you have a job skill that is in high demand. Even that is no guarantee because there is always someone with a visa willing to work for less.

The trends were people spending stupid multiples of their income on a house.

It would make sense to me for prices to go up with the demand of increased income, but when I see average and median incomes, that's not what I see. I just see people taking on massive amounts of debt for social reasons disguised as prudent spending.

Agree with inflection point that shouldn't buy if afraid of possible retrenchment. I'm one of those who've bought in 2011 as the price looked like have bottomed. At present, the price in Fortress is so high that even if it hasn't peaked, I would be hesitated to buy.

Wait... its coming down....

Meccos says

Wait... its coming down....

Hope you are right my friend. Following is the response from a agent...

"Yes, The week after 4th of July always has increased inventory. What you are missing is the prices are also going up. The market has decided my listing will be selling well over the listed price and several offers already.
The one I’d like to show you, just to compare for in the future is in San Ramon…I’m checking to see if we can see it Sunday either before or after my open house…looking for back up buyers.
Are you available for a few minutes on Sunday? I heard a statistic today that over 30 percent of all homes sold in Contra Costa County are sold prior to being placed on the MLS. So it is vital you do keep in touch with me since Keller Williams is the number 1 Real Estate Company in the nation."

meetyaks says

Hope you are right my friend. Following is the response from a agent...

Their job is to say whatever is needed to get you to take out a pen. It doesn't mean it is true. They want to hypnotize you with their words and fake assertions. Say whatever it takes to get you to buy with them.

meetyaks says

I heard a statistic today that over 30 percent of all homes sold in Contra Costa County are sold prior to being placed on the MLS. So it is vital you do keep in touch with me since Keller Williams is the number 1 Real Estate Company in the nation."

I "heard" a statistic? Really? I heard that the money in your pocket is about to burst into flames. Better give it to me quickly so that I can keep you safe. What scientist or investor would act on the invented statistic of a parasite? Keep in mind, he is only in it with you through the deal. He is the safest one in the transaction. He suffers no loss if prices go down the moment you sign on the line. He needs you to "believe" only for the short term and he is all set.

meetyaks says

I heard a statistic today that over 30 percent of all homes sold in Contra Costa County are sold prior to being placed on the MLS. So it is vital you do keep in touch with me since Keller Williams is the number 1 Real Estate Company in the nation.

While that may be somewhat true, it also means that this is a secret society buying and selling, almost like selling stolen goods on a black market and you cannot expect to pay a fair price for any property as there is no transparency whatsoever. If you buy and are somewhat dependent on the valuation or look at it from an investment point of view, then your only bet is that people will keep buying at these elevated prices and hope that rates keep stable at least.

I was in the same boat as you for years, meetyaks, following the market and trying to find a good time to buy. I just bought a house two weeks ago.

Here's what I know:
1) Nationally, housing is overvalued due to many central banking factors, but it's back in bubble land.
2) In the bay area, especially on the peninsula and SF, there is a tremendous amount of wealth generated by tech companies.
3) Real estate is highly local, and for any given city or even neighborhood, it is unclear whether 1) or 2) is a bigger factor in the price of the house, but both contribute.
4) If you want a single family home, rentals are few and far between, and extremely expensive.

Higher interest rates have caused some buyers to drop out, it's still expensive, but you're not competing in bidding wars to buy housing. I bought a place near downtown Mountain View, without a bidding war. It's extremely expensive, and the maximum I could afford, but I also believe that prices in a nice downtown area surrounded by wealthy companies are set more by local wealth than central bank policy. I bought because I needed better and bigger housing than I currently rent, for family reasons, and renting wasn't feasible given our pretty modest requirements of being in walking distance to a downtown and having a garage where I can work on my cars.

Ask yourself why you want to buy. If it's for investment, forget about it. If it's because you want a house to live in, make sure you can afford it on a 30yr fixed loan and won't stress with making payments if you lose your job for 6 months or have your salary go down. Be prepared to take a loss on the house if you have to sell it in the next decade. Hopefully, it won't happen, but the market is so chaotic, it's hard to predict. I'm planning on keeping my house in my family, it's not an investment property, so my calculations were based on whether I could afford to buy it, because I wanted to live in it.

myob says

Ask yourself why you want to buy. If it's for investment, forget about it. If it's because you want a house to live in, make sure you can afford it on a 30yr fixed loan and won't stress with making payments if you lose your job for 6 months or have your salary go down. Be prepared to take a loss on the house if you have to sell it in the next decade. Hopefully, it won't happen, but the market is so chaotic, it's hard to predict. I'm planning on keeping my house in my family, it's not an investment property, so my calculations were based on whether I could afford to buy it, because I wanted to live in it.

The smartest thing said on this thread.

I need more room. So most likely next year move a few hours away and fly/drive in 1-2x a week. Not paying 5 million for a crapbox here.

meetyaks says

"Yes, The week after 4th of July always has increased inventory. What you are missing is the prices are also going up. The market has decided my listing will be selling well over the listed price and several offers already.

The one I’d like to show you, just to compare for in the future is in San Ramon…I’m checking to see if we can see it Sunday either before or after my open house…looking for back up buyers.

Are you available for a few minutes on Sunday? I heard a statistic today that over 30 percent of all homes sold in Contra Costa County are sold prior to being placed on the MLS. So it is vital you do keep in touch with me since Keller Williams is the number 1 Real Estate Company in the nation."

HAHAHAHAHAH