patrick.net

rufita11 says

FortWayne says

Last time I was in San Francisco it was sad to see it. Streets are nice, but you turn the corner and there are many homeless. It's not good for us all.

rufita11 says

FortWayne says

Sadly explains armies of homeless out there.

No, the armies of homeless come for the benefits and the weather. Look it up. Some cities were sending their homeless to SF.

A friend of mine was visiting from Norway in 2009 and she looked in her rearview only to see a homeless person squatting in traffic and taking a dump. She couldn't believe it. A lot had changed since her last visit in '89

Yes like home prices tripling despite the bounty of publicly deficating homeless.

Maybe the excrement of the homeless is the secret fertilizer for the housing market.

New Renter says

Yes like home prices tripling despite the bounty of publicly deficating
homeless.

Maybe the excrement of the homeless is the secret fertilizer for the housing
market.

The locals paying $4.50 for a pound of organic peaches in the ferry building while the homeless are nearby on market street must be a huge boost to self esteem lol

donjumpsuit says

I just got back from my home town in Massachusetts (I live in the Bay Area Currently).

Maybe you misunderstood, but my response is about why homeless people choose SF over other cities. Not about balls and guts and snow.

rufita11 says

Maybe you misunderstood, but my response is about why homeless people choose SF over other cities. Not about balls and guts and snow.

The city pays out cash to homeless people.. so now many from out of state flocked to SF. along with the drug dealers and crack/heroin pipeline.

Thank goodness high inflation hasn't been possible since Reagan was elected, or I'd say these people's cost of living is going up TOO much.

To be fair it depends on the neighborhood. Certain neighborhood rents in SF have been relatively steady or only increased slightly, such as sunset, outer sunset, parkside and other decent (but not hip) neighborhoods.

Don't worry the money that Feds printed is coming back to US from other countries. This will fuck more middle class here in US. Buckle up, it is going to be a bumpy ride. Upside is that the rich is going to get even richer.

The worst part about s.f is walking down market street, looking at the $3500 studios, and realizing the city actually smells homeless...

FortWayne says

Streets are nice, but you turn the corner and there are many homeless.

Yes, the cities where they displace the homeless people instead of trying to deal with root problems are much nicer. How nice. Imagine cities that look like Disneyland! How nice.
Maybe if you just close your eyes most of the time, you won't see the unpleasant things in the world? How nice. Unpleasant things in the world are so sad! Let's all agree to ignore them or just comment to other people how unpleasant they are in a voice of disgust for those inferior. All those drug problems and mental health issues. Why they're almost as bad as our aging parents!

Don't see any rent increase in my world. Same rent the last 2 years. Now renting for 1/3 the cost of ownership in my last calculations. I'm hoping to get to 1/4 in a few years! ;) Bring it on baby. Up Up Up! It'll just make the crash that much more spectacular! I love fireworks.

dublin hillz says

That's one of the main reasons to buy when buy vs rent ratios are reasonable - lock in the housing costs.

I don't know how anyone could believe that. How are house maintenance costs ever locked-in? Unless you mean you lock in the mortgage payment. That's only part of the costs of owning a house though. The argument of locked-in costs is much better for renting. House owning costs, especially maintenance and improvements, are incredibly variable as far as I can tell.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Don't see any rent increase in my world. Same rent the last 2 years. Now renting for 1/3 the cost of ownership in my last calculations. I'm hoping to get to 1/4 in a few years! ;) Bring it on baby. Up Up Up! It'll just make the crash that much more spectacular! I love fireworks.

Well, probably because you never compare apples to apples in your calculations...

FunTime says

dublin hillz says

That's one of the main reasons to buy when buy vs rent ratios are reasonable - lock in the housing costs.

I don't know how anyone could believe that. How are house maintenance costs ever locked-in? Unless you mean you lock in the mortgage payment. That's only part of the costs of owning a house though. The argument of locked-in costs is much better for renting. House owning costs, especially maintenance and improvements, are incredibly variable as far as I can tell.

Maintenance costs are not really that unpredictable especially if you have HOA which covers exterior repairs and building insurance, groundskeeping, etc. Since I purchased, my HOA did not go up, actually went down by a few bucks a month compared to year 1.

dublin hillz says

Maintenance costs are not really that unpredictable especially if you have HOA which covers exterior repairs and building insurance, groundskeeping, etc.

Oh, okay. I get that. So HOA can help fix the unpredictable costs.

I was thinking more of the kind of costs I hear neighbors discuss or that my landlord has paid. New roof, new windows, new furnace, new hot water heater, repairs maintenance due to hot water heater leaking contents onto floor and flooding adjacent carpeted room etc, etc.

FunTime says

dublin hillz says

Maintenance costs are not really that unpredictable especially if you have HOA which covers exterior repairs and building insurance, groundskeeping, etc.

Oh, okay. I get that. So HOA can help fix the unpredictable costs.

I was thinking more of the kind of costs I hear neighbors discuss or that my landlord has paid. New roof, new windows, new furnace, new hot water heater, repairs maintenance due to hot water heater leaking contents onto floor and flooding adjacent carpeted room etc, etc.

Some of these issues are also dependent upon what kind of property is purchased. If someone purchases a resale the risk that these issues will need to be addressed sooner rather than later and exponentially greater compared to purchasing new construction from a reputable builder. Modern buildings also have much better insulation and windows compared to the "quality" of the past where you might as well be sleeping on the sidewalk lol

dublin hillz says

Modern buildings also have much better insulation and windows compared to the "quality" of the past where you might as well be sleeping on the sidewalk lol

Ha, makes sense.

Income stagnant. Standard of living dropping like a rock. This place is bad for the middle class. Time to move. Wont miss anything but the weather, but its no longer worth it not even close. Kids raised here will be far more failure prone and degenerate than most normal middle class places these days.

dublin hillz says

Maintenance costs are not really that unpredictable especially if you have HOA which covers exterior repairs and building insurance, groundskeeping, etc. Since I purchased, my HOA did not go up, actually went down by a few bucks a month compared to year 1.

It depends how good your HOA is at maintaining capital reserves to cover major repairs.

Lots of people have been unpleasantly surprised by large special assessments, and the problem has gotten worse with all the people ceasing to pay their mortgages and HOA fees.

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Don't see any rent increase in my world. Same rent the last 2 years. Now renting for 1/3 the cost of ownership in my last calculations. I'm hoping to get to 1/4 in a few years! ;) Bring it on baby. Up Up Up! It'll just make the crash that much more spectacular! I love fireworks.

Well, probably because you never compare apples to apples in your calculations...

Only care about my apples. If people want to give away their apples for rotten tomatoes that works for me. 3K/mth renting verses 9K/mth ownership is not hard math to do. Although, I was always top of my math class, so maybe it is for some. ;)

rufita11 says

Maybe you misunderstood, but my response is about why homeless people choose SF over other cities. Not about balls and guts and snow.

There's enough people in San Francisco thinking about the societal problems that lead to homelessness that a homeless person isn't just going to be arrested or sent away like in other U.S. cities. Money is available, shelter and addiction counseling are available, through a variety of programs which have resulted in various levels of successes and failures. It's a hard problem to solve.

As others said, more practically you could sleep outside year-round and survive without much shelter. Most of the time you'd be comfortable because the temperature doesn't vary much.

FunTime says

There's enough people in San Francisco thinking about the societal problems that lead to homelessness that a homeless person isn't just going to be arrested or sent away like in other U.S. cities. Money is available, shelter and addiction counseling are available, through a variety of programs which have resulted in various levels of successes and failures. It's a hard problem to solve.

It's a revenue model for the homeless industrial complex, and with sit/lie and imminent park closures that broadens to encompass the prison industrial complex too. Also panhandlers who ride the freights up and down the coast can count on SF tourists being a soft touch, and although I hesitate to use the word liberal (too often used as an epithet) in this context it does apply and cause unintended consequences. It is indeed a hard problem to solve, especially when it's such a big revenue model to exploit.

The weather helps, but other places have nice weather.

curious2 says

The weather helps, but other places have nice weather.

Yeah, probably a combo deal. Southern California would seem to be the place. Maybe the homeless there are less recognizable because they can always get a good ocean bath.

FunTime says

Maybe the homeless there are less recognizable because they can always get a good ocean bath.

I wish SF would provide free public showers and sinks, so the homeless might become less recognizable. Not enough money in that though. Plenty of Federal deficit money for pills and prescribers, none for showers. The ancient Romans had it right: free public baths, no pills.

curious2 says

I wish SF would provide free public showers and sinks,

I was just talking with my buddy Andrew just now who is off to feed the homeless. In the 1970s I worked a lot with the homeless, and was roped into the First Avenue Service Center, by a friend of mine.

It was an interesting experiment, but the homeless also include the mentally ill.

Reagan made it worse, and even though there are many fine programs here in Seattle the homeless issue still bothers me.

It's also the number of people who run scams on the system. I worked on a program where we only gave out meals at night. The person running that program was smart. They figured that some one out, at night, would be truly homeless.

That morphed into a free food program that has created a tent city near the mayor's office. I think the mayor's office takes people on strolls to see the homeless to show what great guys our mayors have been.

So, while I agree that showers, grooming, and clothes can be provided, it's a spinning wheel of liability.

FortWayne says

What goes up must come down.

So true. It went down during the mortgage meltdown. Now it's on its way back up. Looks like we still have room to run.

My friend just got a notice that rent will be increased by $400/month on her 2 bedroom apartment. She's currently paying $1,950/month. That's over 20% increase. Rents are now even higher than 2006 and 2007.

In my complex rent went up 35% over last two years.

SFace says

Bay Area rent will be up another 6-8% one year from now. The most difficult rental market will be Seattle, NorCal, SoCal and NY/NJ Metro.

Have you ever seen local SFBA employers, primarily in SW/HW Tech Industry, increase their prices to consumer/commercial customers to compensate for higher employee costs ?

you can get away with it in many other industries across many geographies like SoCal. Seattle and much of the East Coast. But it just doesnt work in Deflationary Tech Industry.

On the other side of the rent inflation, you work with Joe the mechanic, he works on your car. His rent went up, and so will his labor costs he will pass on to you to fix your car.

SFace says

If tech is so deflationary, why the hell is everything inflating. It fail the reality test.

A car today, compared to 20-30-40- years ago, is more expensive due to inflation in material and labor, that is the reality. Costs are passed through to consumer with higher prices.

However, the opposite is true with tech products... even though we use inflationary labor materials, we certainly have seen deflation in retail prices. A very tough business to be in given how much pressure on margins we get. Prices drop for many reasons... That PC/Laptop you are using is 10 times better than 10- 20- years ago and certainly far cheaper to purchase. The same is true with Storage/ Semiconductor / and some software products. All of these are life blood of South Bay economy. (PS. Why did IBM get out of all these markets years ago ?)

So higher rents or home prices will force employers to move out more operations out of the SFBA to remain competitive. Why else have we seen job migration over the coarse of the past 10-15 years ? There is a reason for all these.

ON THE RECORD / CARL GUARDINO
Published 4:00 am, Sunday, May 13, 2007

Hewlett-Packard and Dell are the top two computer-makers in the world. Corporate headquarters for HP are located in Palo Alto and Dell is in Round Rock, Texas. Obviously, they both have people and facilities around the globe.

In those two communities where their corporate headquarters are and where a lot of research and development takes place, the median resale price for a home in Palo Alto is about $1.6 million. In Round Rock, Texas, it's about $180,000, except the home and property are bigger.

We hear from HP all the time that a huge deterrent to the ability to recruit and retain people anywhere near Silicon Valley is the housing issue. We don't hear that from Dell, which is also a member company, about their operations in Round Rock. It does continue to plague us and we will continue to sound the alarm.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Only care about my apples. If people want to give away their apples for rotten tomatoes that works for me. 3K/mth renting verses 9K/mth ownership is not hard math to do. Although, I was always top of my math class, so maybe it is for some. ;)

OK--Mr. top of your math class, how about you show your work?

thomas you crack me up using electrons and your calories to argue with a hipster Cool Aid drinker with a prestige credit card handle.

Don't you know that the further away the hipsters are from using science to solve problems and create value added things, the more (Moore?) authoritative are their platitudes about "technology"?

Don't waste your time.

Oh Amex black Platinum AMX (thanks for the very Cool Correction, gentlemen) you're soooo Cool!

E-man says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Oh Amex black you're soooo Cool!

1) No doubt SFace is really cool. If we have to take a vote on Patnet, I bet SFace will win hands down.

2) It's a Silver AMX, not black.

3) What's your beef with SFace? I believe he adds more value to this board than other individuals.

Yes he is!

Shows how Un-Cool I am here in the trenches of "tech", I dunneven know my Amex colors! Thanks for setting me straight on that!

And yes he does add value, if more wealthy folks will listen and act on his platitudes and keep on bidding up home prices here, to keep the assessments and local gov't revenues rising, it'll add more value like you said.

Sky's the limit! Cool and Hip!

thomas is old and jaded and its different here. Its different this time. S/he needs to chill out and hop on the bandwagon; ride the gravy train.

E-man says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Oh Amex black you're soooo Cool!

1) No doubt SFace is really cool. If we have to take a vote on Patnet, I bet SFace will win hands down.

2) It's a Silver AMX, not black.

3) What's your beef with SFace? I believe he adds more value to this board than other individuals.

APOCALYPSE is far cooler, it's not even a contest.

rufita11 says

A friend of mine was visiting from Norway in 2009 and she looked in her rearview only to see a homeless person squatting in traffic and taking a dump. She couldn't believe it. A lot had changed since her last visit in '89

I feel the same way, I think as a nation we are losing our greatness, the last frontier of freedom and prosperity for the working man.

SFace says

Hey you can believe rent is coming down.

I don't think housing/rent is coming down in a built up and and built out, overcrowded geographically constrained region that is The Wide Open Prairie Spaces at Bargain Prices compared to crowded places like Shanghai and Mumbai where so many wealthy folks who covet to live here are from.

Sky's the limit!

FortWayne says

rufita11 says

A friend of mine was visiting from Norway in 2009 and she looked in her rearview only to see a homeless person squatting in traffic and taking a dump. She couldn't believe it. A lot had changed since her last visit in '89

I feel the same way, I think as a nation we are losing our greatness, the last frontier of freedom and prosperity for the working man.

The destruction of the middle class over the past 20 years... Well you know the story.

APOCALYPSE knows the ending.

thomaswong.1986 says

Deflationary Tech Industry.

"The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year".
Dr. Gordon E. Moore, Electronics, vol 36 (8). April 19, 1965. - Moore's Law, first publication in his own words.

Yes friends, as it was when Moore first said it in Silicon Valley in 1965, just as it ia now: it's all about Cost Reduction. Deflation. As in the economies and efficiencies that the New (Cool and Hip) media companies in the region are up to in order to wring out more blood from the stone of the declining purchasing power of working class folks.

Cost Reduction. Deflationary.

B.A.C.A.H. says

"The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year".

the reasoning is simple...

first gen chip will have one transistor and cost $100/transistor. TC = $100
second gen chip will have two transistor and cost $50/transistor. TC = $100
third gen chip will have four transistors and cost $25/transistor. TC = $100

and so on and so on...but it still costs $100 to make the chip.
Much of being fixed costs cannot change as easily as variable costs.

Then came the global competition from Japanese .. as they sold their
for less than US...

The fact is Moore did not predict price competition (price wars) what would force price discounts. Nore did he foresee many clones being introduced to force US manufacturer out of business. Truly no one wants to see average selling prices
collapse. Back in 1985 it was the turning point.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1985/07/08/66112/

NOW, THE JAPANESE CHALLENGE IN MICROPROCESSORS Japan's largest chipmaker is moving fast to break the U.S. hammerlock on computers-on-a-chip and open the way for Japanese domination of the entire computer industry. The legal and commercial barriers loom large, but they may be breachable.

By Bro Uttal RESEARCH ASSOCIATE Nancy E. Marx
July 8, 1985

thomaswong.1986 says

Then came the global competition from Japanese .. as they sold their

for less than US...

In the late 80s, the semiconductor industry was dominated by the Japanese: NEC, Hitachi and Toshiba.

Now in 2012 we're led by Intel, Samsung and Qualcomm. 2 out of the top three are based in California.

In fact in 2012 5 of the top 15 semiconductor companies are headquartered in California: Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia

zesta says

In fact in 2012 5 of the top 15 semiconductor companies are headquartered in California: Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia

most of the operations are out of state... AMD my former employer has a few hundred in Sunnyvale, the vast majority 9000 are outside of CA. The same is true with Intel and many major tech firms. The term "headquarters" means very little.

zesta says

In the late 80s, the semiconductor industry was dominated by the Japanese: NEC, Hitachi and Toshiba.

No one saw that coming and we got the shit kicked out. It wasnt pretty as we bleed jobs ! I worked at AMD back then.