patrick.net

zesta says

I'm guessing if RentingForHalfTheCost would have started this thread 75% of the comments would have been deleted long ago.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Funny, no one has provided a link that show it. What a bunch of clowns you are.

Place is still vacant. Guess they are trying to give the false impression that things are renting fast. I'll swing by today and take a bunch of pictures of an empty house. Call the mgnt company and offer to rent it, you will be surprised when they say it is still available. Can't believe a friggin word from anyone in the real estate bus anymore. Bunch of crooks.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I'll swing by today and take a bunch of pictures of an empty house. Call the
mgnt company and offer to rent it, you will be surprised when they say it is
still available.

Do whatever you want. Just understand, no one here will have any reason to believe you.

Nothing you do or say from hereon will in any way re-establish your reputation as someone honest, trustworthy, or in any way believable

That ship has sailed. You had multiple points at which you could have bowed out, taken your lumps, and (hopefully) moved on. Yet, at each point you simply doubled then tripled down in an attempt to cover up your initial lie - and that strategy has (once again) failed you.

Whatever you sought to accomplish via your self imposed two month hiatus from this site has not worked. You would have thought that after the back-to-back "fake MCD trades/impossible CSCO price" debacles you would have been more careful in your attempt to rebuild your reputation. Yet it took you all of 6 days to fall back into your old habits.

So again, do what you want, just know this... no matter what you do... no matter what you say... no one will have any reason to believe any of it whatsoever.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Even if this was true, you are saying that this house sells for $604 per square foot. The highest sale in the last 3 months in Pleasanton of any house under 2200 square feet was $915,000. Somehow the house you are renting is worth 42% more.

Again, I should put you in touch with my landlord. I would buy it if it was on par with renting. Unfortunately, not even close. 1.3m and growing. Silly

I think you are having trouble with the numbers. Its sounds like you are renting a house for $3000 (which has a market rent of $3495) that sells for around $900,000.

If I want to buy that house with 20% down, I can take out a mortgage for $720,000.
Principle & Interest at 4.5% = $3648
Taxes are roughly $843
Total payment is $4491
Of this payment $3543 per month is tax deductible. Even with a combine federal/state bracket of 30% there is a deduction of over $1000 per month in taxes meaning a net payment of around $3400.

Change your screen name to Renting For More Than The Cost

lovelafayette says

I think you are having trouble with the numbers. Its sounds like you are renting a house for $3000 (which has a market rent of $3495) that sells for around $900,000.

Not sure how you are getting these numbers. My rent is $3k and the recent appraisal of the how was 1.3m. Guess you know better though. The number you are saying sound like the rental place that has been on the market for months with no takers.

lovelafayette says

If I want to buy that house with 20% down, I can take out a mortgage for $720,000.

Sure but you still have to put 20% down. If you pay all cash then you can own for just the cost of tax and insurance.

A better comparison would be to calculate a comparable PITI based on a hypothetical 0% down including all fees, appreciation, and probable residency, you know, like what you can do with Patrick's calculator.

lovelafayette says

Of this payment $3543 per month is tax deductible. Even with a combine federal/state bracket of 30% there is a deduction of over $1000 per month in taxes meaning a net payment of around $3400.

Not for me. Already into the AMT tax so a mortgage deduction does nothing to help. Taxes alone is enough to cover 6 months of my rent for a 1.3m house. People will still try to bend the math though. Very funny to watch.

Is it possible that RFHTC is talking about 570, and the rest of you are onto 573??

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Even Zillow has a pretty accurate range of ownership and rental for 573 Tawny.

921K to buy

2900/mth to rent. ( to which there were 0 takers)

Winner is Rent by a mile!

perhaps $525K would be better.. around $2900 mortgage.

the $525K would be last sale price in 1987 plus inflation.
seems that rent adjusted for inflation is right on par.

thomaswong.1986 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Even Zillow has a pretty accurate range of ownership and rental for 573 Tawny.

921K to buy

2900/mth to rent. ( to which there were 0 takers)

Winner is Rent by a mile!

perhaps $525K would be better.. around $2900 mortgage.

the $525K would be last sale price in 1987 plus inflation.

seems that rent adjusted for inflation is right on par.

20% down and the payment is $2200 at 4.875%. Plenty of places offer lower rates.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

lovelafayette says

Of this payment $3543 per month is tax deductible. Even with a combine federal/state bracket of 30% there is a deduction of over $1000 per month in taxes meaning a net payment of around $3400.

Not for me. Already into the AMT tax so a mortgage deduction does nothing to help. Taxes alone is enough to cover 6 months of my rent for a 1.3m house. People will still try to bend the math though. Very funny to watch.

Im definitely not an expert on taxes but I thought you only lose the property tax deduction with AMT. It says that you still get your mortgage deduction on purchase money loans for a primary residence.

"Suggestion: If you are subject to the AMT, there is no advantage to using your home equity line of credit to buy a car, because the interest will not be deductible."

Isn't that the whole reason to buy a home. Hence if you are already in AMT land then buying a home makes no sense. How can you turn it into an ATM machine? Honestly.

Goran_K says

So you know I have no reason to side with him, but I without doubt did call that number for Craig Property Management, and the woman on the other line said "It was rented months ago." Don't believe me? Here's a screen cap directly from my phone showing the number in my call history:

Here is also a snapshot of Goran while he is making the call. ;)

Now, that we have your full attention. You can do the math

Rent: 3495/Month
Own: 900K

If you had 900K of you own money to invest. All you need is to make 4.6% return on the 900K after taxes to cover the rent. Doesn't seem like too much of a stretch goal to me.

That doesn't even include the extra money you would cough up for prop taxes, maintenance, and insurance. Geez weez.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Here is also a snapshot of Goran while he is making the call. ;)

At least I wore clean underwear.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

So you are admitting that now is a horrible time to buy. Thanks

Yup, you missed your opportunity. Now you get to rent and move at the landlord's discretion. (remember Foster City?) For people without kids in public school, this probably isn't too big a deal.

robertoaribas says

ahhh, is somebody bitter because they've been completely 100% butt ass wrong about the housing market?

It's ok, I'm sure there will be another crash... in like 7 to 10 years!

Why would I be "butt ass hurt" about the housing market? I actually bought a house and for way under market through a probate sale in one of California Coastal's most desirable cities. It's in a beautiful location. I can literally see the ocean from my backyard deck. The weather for the past few days has been in the low-70s. Most days I work outside when I don't have to go to a client's location. What do I have to be butt hurt about again?

Besides I wouldn't get butt hurt about material possessions. If I didn't buy a house and was priced out for 7-10 years, I'd still be okay with who I am. I do well at my job, and have worked with some of the biggest blue chip companies in my industry. I take pride in what I do, and people see that. Being able to take pride in what you do and being recognized for your professional skills is a beautiful thing.

It would make me butthurt though if people looked at who I was professionally and only had this to say:

Roberto Ribas
School: Scottsdale Community College
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Department: Mathematics

2/28/13
MAT217
Poor Quality

Completely useless. Probably think Calculus is an emperor. If you have no other option in registering for his class, hire a tutor.

math212
Poor Quality

If you want to teach yourself calculus this is a perfect class for you. Barely teaches you anything.

1/13/11
math42
Poor Quality

i would not recommend this teacher to anyone. i learned more about his Dog and how many motorcycles he owns, and how many sports he plays, and how big his shoe size is( yes he told this to the ladies in class) worst math teacher i have ever had. just because the subject matter is easy in his own mind doesn't mean we get it. absolutely terrible
Report this rating

http://www.ratemyprofessors.com/ShowRatings.jsp?tid=643999

The above would make me really butt hurt, and I hope it would too for anyone who actually cared about their professional integrity.

rooemoore says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

So you are admitting that now is a horrible time to buy. Thanks

Yup, you missed your opportunity. Now you get to rent and move at the landlord's discretion. (remember Foster City?) For people without kids in public school, this probably isn't too big a deal.

Yes, I remember Foster City perfectly. Signed a 2yr rental lease knowing the owner was moving back in at the end. Got the place for about 75% of market rent and love it. Such great memories while I saved the difference each month.

I didn't miss anything. My savings have been on a great rise and have recently sold out of most of the growth positions that doubled over the last 3 years. No house would have come close to giving me returns that I've seen. That free money flow doesn't just appreciate housing prices, it moves stocks. The very cool thing is all I got to do is click a button to get the rewards, not hold open houses and chase people to close on a house. All the while paying some jack-ass 6% of my asset price. Crazy.

Also, sold out of many real estate holdings just this last 2 years. Haven't missed a thing.

Now, the question to me has always been the rent verses buy debate. Haven't seen the type of house I want/need win the buy side yet in SFBA. If it does, I'll be the first to report and jump in the buyers camp. I see the buyers, know most of them. A lot is family money, a lot is options/RSUs. Both them groups don't mind at all if a 20% downturn hits us. Me on the other hand do. All my money was hard earned, not given.

robertoaribas says

I'm seriously not understanding what you are even trying to say; usually I understand you, I just think you are stupid and not worth my time...

how are you measuring prices to state it over corrected. the only way to do that
is to peg past prices pegged to inflation. Rents have limits since they fluctuate.

is your local economy booming with higher incomes due to more jobs from California maybe ?

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Now, the question to me has always been the rent verses buy debate. Haven't seen the type of house I want/need win the buy side yet in SFBA. If it does, I'll be the first to report and jump in the buyers camp. I see the buyers, know most of them. A lot is family money, a lot is options/RSUs. Both them groups don't mind at all if a 20% downturn hits us. Me on the other hand do. All my money was hard earned, not given.

sure we had lots of family money and stock options in the past.. yet prices didnt sky rocket. many kept that money in savings.. we had 340 public companies back in early 90s and 400 by year 2000.. yet today we only have 200 active public companies... and a meager start up environment.

today, while options are not so easy and appreciate widely as before, prices certainly are way way off from the norm. We are still way way off the mark and certainly can be called Crazy market prices.

Keep Savings..

robertoaribas says

I guess you are right. I guess that condo for $26K, the other one for $31.5K and the one for $40K should have dropped down to less than a McCafe latte before I bought them. Silly me. All rented continuously for 2 years now, at $825, $875 and $775.... I've had exactly one months total vacancy on one of them over the 2 years..

LOL never admit Robert Shiller was right.. prices over the long run track inflation.

That was your measure "how much to pay", but not so much "when to buy".

robertoaribas says

If they track inflation I'll end up very very rich... Are you so dense that you don't realize "revert to the mean" works from both sides?

i always have advocated reverting to the mean... so whats your method...

tracking just inflation means nothing if you dont have growth. anyway my

stock portfolio/IRA since 1980 is doing just peachy given the growth we had

in our econony... how them bricks looking these days, they grow overnight!

thomaswong.1986 says

how are you measuring prices to state it over corrected. the only way to do that

is to peg past prices pegged to inflation. Rents have limits since they fluctuate.

OK Thomas. So how do you know what year was "right" to peg to?

That's why the inflation measure is worse than using rent/buy.

Goran_K says

Whoa look at the dick waving

I'd rather not look at that, thank you very much.

B.A.C.A.H. says

I'd rather not look at that, thank you very much.

Then this thread isn't for you.

tatupu70 says

OK Thomas. So how do you know what year was "right" to peg to?

That's why the inflation measure is worse than using rent/buy.

Roberto doesnt want to admit Robert shiller was right about long term prices,
but avoids admitting so much. Time is not the issue to buy, its the price which
reduces the risk to the downside.

thomaswong.1986 says

Roberto doesnt want to admit Robert shiller was right about long term prices,

but avoids admitting so much. Time is not the issue to buy, its the price which

reduces the risk to the downside.

Not to speak for Roberto, but I don't think he has too much issue with Shiller. And Roberto did buy at a price that reduced his downside risk to almost zero. He did this by realizing that the rent/buy was strongly in favor of buying.

But back to my post--timing is essential if you want to use inflation adjusting to determine the right price for your home. If you adjust from the wrong starting point, you'll get a completely useless number....

tatupu70 says

But back to my post--timing is essential if you want to use inflation adjusting to determine the right price for your home. If you adjust from the wrong starting point, you'll get a completely useless number....

but if your marking time waiting for someone else to actually make an offer instead of being infront of the sale... therefore your constant lowballs eventual come to an deal instead of waiting for some numbers to get published.

thomaswong.1986 says

but if your marking time waiting for someone else to actually make an offer instead of being infront of the sale... therefore your constant lowballs eventual come to an deal instead of waiting for some numbers to get published.

What the hell are you talking about? I'm trying to explain to you why you shouldn't rely solely on inflation adjusted prices.

Did you mean to reply to a different post?

tatupu70 says

What the hell are you talking about? I'm trying to explain to you why you shouldn't rely solely on inflation adjusted prices.

your going to go against a trend in home prices across all major regions which has held true and has been documented as fact since 1945 ?

Is that what your saying.... good luck with that !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__GPqOVNbE

thomaswong.1986 says

tatupu70 says

What the hell are you talking about? I'm trying to explain to you why you shouldn't rely solely on inflation adjusted prices.

your going to go against a trend in home prices across all major regions which has held true and has been documented as fact since 1945 ?

Is that what your saying.... good luck with that !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__GPqOVNbE

He's saying that even if you believe real-estate only increases at the inflation rate, the starting date you pick makes a real difference. Also, you continually overlook the fact that the way the inflation rate is measured has changed drastically over time. Try this experiment:

Assume the real inflation rate for the last 10 years has been 10% per year. What then is the correct price for a house? 2000 + 10%/year increase?

thomaswong.1986 says

your going to go against a trend in home prices across all major regions
which has held true and has been documented as fact since 1945 ?

Is that what your saying.... good luck with that !

Nope--that's not what I'm saying. Go back and read my posts again and hopefully you'll get it. JFP gets it.

JFP says

Assume the real inflation rate for the last 10 years has been 10% per year. What then is the correct price for a house? 2000 + 10%/year increase?

for the most part we were past the bubble in 1998 to 2000 prices doubled in SFBA.. we (SFBA) already saw prices double and double again...

so you see.. even with 10%.. prices were already way above your numbers.

as for inflation being over 10% .. well good luck on that...

New Renter says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

CDon says

out of curiosity, are you now tripling down on your lie, or do you not see (a few pages in) where it shows the address, 573 tawny drive and the word "leased" next to it?

http://www.craigpm.com/Nav.aspx/Page=%2fListNow%2fDefault.aspx%2flstStatusID%3d20

Funny, no one has provided a link that show it. What a bunch of clowns you are.

I understand - web browsers are beyond your abilities. Here you are!

Place is still vacant with no renter. Guess the owner would rather it sit idle than risk the damage a renter would do to the place. It is like money going down the drain. Hope you are not invested in that REIT.

This blog is so polarizing. So I'm just going to put my spin on the comments related to this thread. If your making a combined income 240,000 dollars a year you can afford a house in a nice bay area city. If your don't make this much you have to settle for a part of town that you might not be happy living in. If your rich it does not matter live in the city of your choice. If your single get a roommate and save a ton of money. If you want to start a family and you make less than 240,000 k a year then move to cheaper place or live in a less desirable place in the bay. Live simply, be happy and help your neighbor.

Tim Aurora says

So you have to take his predictions with a grain of salt

He's really careful to not make predictions. In all the videos, interviews I've watched/read he's made one or two statements that could reasonable called predictions. I suggest you work on your power of observation. Read/listen to each word and be careful not to apply your own interpretation or that of the headline/interviewer.

I suggest I work on my power of typing.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I understand - web browsers are beyond your abilities. Here you are!

Place is still vacant with no renter. Guess the owner would rather it sit idle than risk the damage a renter would do to the place. It is like money going down the drain. Hope you are not invested in that REIT.

Today, it is still vacant. No one willing to rent this place even though the rent is a fraction of the ownership cost. Gives me a lot of faith in the market. I contacted them asking if I could use it for when I have a bunch of relatives in the area. There were obviously pissed I asked. I can sense the frustration they are having with this place. Every month thousands of dollars down the drain. It'll probably be on the market again forsale soon.

Only in Sunnyvale and Mountain View are rents going up. Thats why I am moving to San Jose next year. Rents are 500 a month cheaper!

egads101 says

thanks! clearly you really understand real estate investing! do tell us more!

Bob, give it a rest.

We've gone over, and over, and over the same set of concerns you have about my business, which you know nothing about.

I make more money than you Bob.

Tell us all again about your million dollar equity, and $6K in passive income. It never gets old.