patrick.net

Bigsby says

OK. Let's just say for sake of argument that those numbers are accurate. As I do not know those areas nor their population, what would constitute a normal number of rentable properties in those areas?

Not sure about any normal state, as I don't believe there is one in the SFBA. However, my point is that the number of rentals are growing considerably. Lets see what next week brings, and next month. If it stabilizes then all good, if it keep growing 2x each month then boom. The landlord is holding a deuce and seven. Not even suited.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

OK. Let's just say for sake of argument that those numbers are accurate. As I do not know those areas nor their population, what would constitute a normal number of rentable properties in those areas?

Not sure about any normal state, as I don't believe there is one in the SFBA. However, my point is that the number of rentals are growing considerably. Lets see what next week brings, and next month. If it stabilizes then all good, if it keep growing 2x each month then boom. The landlord is holding a deuce and seven. Not even suited.

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

Bigsby says

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

I have never seen the Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore area have anything higher than 300 rentals from craiglist. Then all of a sudden mid to end of July and now continuing in August things are exploding. I really don't see any problem. You can decide that the data is irrelevant to you, but it means something to me.

robertoaribas says

there were 32 people at the thai restaurant near my house for lunch. Clearly the economy is getting better!

Could be true. If you sampled all the restaurant in the area and had historical data to compare, then you might have something. You seem to be getting sharper.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

I have never seen the Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore area have anything higher than 300 rentals from craiglist. Then all of a sudden mid to end of July and now continuing in August things are exploding. I really don't see any problem. You can decide that the data is irrelevant to you, but it means something to me.

And right now it mean tens of thousands of dollars in my short on the home builders.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

I have never seen the Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore area have anything higher than 300 rentals from craiglist. Then all of a sudden mid to end of July and now continuing in August things are exploding. I really don't see any problem. You can decide that the data is irrelevant to you, but it means something to me.

You just stating a figure with no support hardly fills me with confidence. What is the population of the area? And how many rentals are listed on other sites that don't suffer from the Craigslist issues?

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

there were 32 people at the thai restaurant near my house for lunch. Clearly the economy is getting better!

Could be true. If you sampled all the restaurant in the area and had historical data to compare, then you might have something. You seem to be getting sharper.

And yet...

I look at this graph as all the colored area that pushed it above $10 back in 2011 is artificial. It will adjust back to $10 again. Already on its way and fast.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DHI&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

robertoaribas says

bigsby, he is a serial liar; you have more patience than me!

I'd be selling now if I had properties in Phoenix. Like no other seller. Just saying... There is nothing to carry the artificial real estate market further. The gig is up. If you hold, then be prepared to lose all the vapor wealth you brag about on here.

I am posting now that I am short DHI. Lets see what happens from here.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I am posting now that I am short DHI. Lets see what happens from here.

Very detailed.

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I am posting now that I am short DHI. Lets see what happens from here.

Very detailed.

Okay, I really don't want to talk in dollars, because the market has done me very well since 2007. Lets say I have almost 10% of my worth riding on shorting the housing market right now. The other 90 is mostly in cash or equivalent. I expect that 10% to match my cash in about 6 months when this shit finally comes to roost!!! Cha-ching

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

I collected all my rent again this month. that is all the come back I need.

Nice! No medical bills this time. Keep that car running...

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

I collected all my rent again this month. that is all the come back I need.

Nice! No medical bills this time. Keep that car running...

Keep the deletes coming...

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

I collected all my rent again this month. that is all the come back I need.

Nice! No medical bills this time. Keep that car running...

Keep the deletes coming...

Before you made some sense, you were completely wrong, but it was not insane. Now you just talk gibberish!

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

I collected all my rent again this month. that is all the come back I need.

Nice! No medical bills this time. Keep that car running...

Keep the deletes coming...

Before you made some sense, you were completely wrong, but it was not insane. Now you just talk gibberish!

Which word(s) did you not understand?

In Sonoma County I notice a lot more larger expensive homes are going on the rental market. I'm used to seeing shitty 1-2 bd mostly where I am (whine country) but the pickings are getting larger and fancier. Prices are levelling off and maybe even dropping a bit. I sense a new crop of landlords has bought into this market.
Just my non scientific observation. I've been checking Craigslist every day for the last 3 years for a decent rental.

Also, quite a few of the listings have been "remodeled".

If you read the majority of articles about the all cash investors and investment firms, they all said that they are planning to hold onto the purchases and then sell in five to ten years, and renting their purchases. Maybe it has begun, but it will happen eventually based on what these articles regarding these purchases have stated, I.e. Blackstone....so we shall see....

retire59 says

If you read the majority of articles about the all cash investors and investment firms, they all said that they are planning to hold onto the purchases and then sell in five to ten years, and renting their purchases. Maybe it has begun, but it will happen eventually based on what these articles regarding these purchases have stated, I.e. Blackstone....so we shall see....

Very true. However, people's actions and words have a weak relationship at the best of times. Once people fear that they will lose money, all bets are off. Take a look at this video. I love these parts

"keeping up with the Jones"

"One way of another the property price will still go up".

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2013/08/09/n-chinese-homebuyers.cnnmoney/index.html

I see a huge potential problem with all this glut. It is driven by the premise of fundamentals don't matter, prices always go up. Even though we have seen that to not be true so recently.