patrick.net

Most US prices are more than affordable by any measurement. Certain areas are more expensive. That's just the way it is and that is true all around the world. If you think the current prices are a bubble, then fine, stay in your parents' basement and continue to lie about your investments. If that's fun for you, enjoy! I'd suggest that most other people will buy houses when they have the means to do so and will just get on with it. Recent price hikes will subside. There may even be modest price declines, but if you think this is a bubble that's going to pop (and lead to the massive declines you've mentioned in your other personas), then I suspect you are going to be sorely disappointed.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Pleasanton/6118-Crater-Lake-Ct-94588/home/1168962
On Redfin: 392 days

35X-Outs
Redfin X-Outs

Is this shitbox built on a sinkhole or something?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Pleasanton/6315-Inglewood-Dr-94588/home/1919011
This one is on the market for $637,000 and was last purchased Jun 02, 2000 for $412,000.
It was/may still be priced too high but I don't see the where money has been lost by the current owners of this property at this time.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Prices always go up, except when they don't I guess. I don't see it as a drop, rather a reversion to the mean. Many think the bubble prices are still sustainable. Even the fed. Good luck to that.

If sales prices were falling, you might have a point. But you are being purposely dishonest so you don't.

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Prices always go up, except when they don't I guess. I don't see it as a drop, rather a reversion to the mean. Many think the bubble prices are still sustainable. Even the fed. Good luck to that.

If sales prices were falling, you might have a point. But you are being purposely dishonest so you don't.

Hard to hide your stripes there tatupu70. Please be more specific about my dishonesty. Are these places not falling in price? Do you know more than the rest of us?

I couldn't care less about sales rising or falling. All I, and most people care about, is price. Prices are starting to fall. It is obvious to me the last month.

Lose 34K in less than a month. Just pay list price. ;)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Pleasanton/3541-Norton-Way-94566/home/1866749

Klondike says

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Pleasanton/6118-Crater-Lake-Ct-94588/home/1168962

On Redfin: 392 days

35X-Outs

Redfin X-Outs

Is this shitbox built on a sinkhole or something?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Pleasanton/6315-Inglewood-Dr-94588/home/1919011

This one is on the market for $637,000 and was last purchased Jun 02, 2000 for $412,000.

It was/may still be priced too high but I don't see the where money has been lost by the current owners of this property at this time.

Everything in the SFBA is built on a sinkhole. That doesn't seem to cause any price drop. My OP was saying that if you paid list last month for these places you would now be in the hole. According to many on this board the only way to get a house around here is to bid much above list. That is not working for these places.

125 price reductions in the last 7 days in Alameda County. Looks like sellers are chasing buyers (or the lack of buyers) now.

http://tinyurl.com/kwf8fnn

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Looks like sellers are chasing buyers (or the lack of buyers) now.

Bullshit: everybody knows that there are 1 billion Chinese billionaires ready to buy all-cash.

So does this mean that your house that you live in and pay 3k in rent is only worth $650,000 instead of 1.3 mil. I guess you were only off by 50%

lovelafayette says

So does this mean that your house that you live in and pay 3k in rent is only worth $650,000 instead of 1.3 mil. I guess you were only off by 50%

Only a comment that can come from someone over extended in real estate. Good luck to you digging yourself out of 30 years of debt all for an ageing pile of wood and nails.

In all honesty, I'm sure it's worth every penny that it was sold for before the housing bubble.

Jan 20, 1993
Sold (Public Records)
$252,000

Who cares about the east bay ?
Show me some examples in South Bay.

cloud15 says

Who cares about the east bay ?

Show me some examples in South Bay.

South bay is going underwater at some point. If you buy there make sure you have a boat in your backyard. Your 1m+ shack will be a home for sea turtles at some point. Maybe they can make the 7K/mth mortgage payment for you. ;)

Perhaps the devil incarnate showed up and cursed the house. Anyone that enters suffers immediate death. That's the only thing that could justify a decrease of this magnitude in this new real estate economy.

exfatguy says

Perhaps the devil incarnate showed up and cursed the house. Anyone that enters suffers immediate death. That's the only thing that could justify a decrease of this magnitude in this new real estate economy.

Better to die for real than suffer 30 year of a slow death with debt. At least it is quick.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Please be more specific about my dishonesty.

During the last thows of 2006 as just about every metric was pointing to a massive downturn, some delusional permabull would post the price history of some house that raised their asking price as this was somehow "proof" that prices were still going up, all data sets to the contrary be damned...

At the time the bears and the rational heads would look at these fools with a mix of pity and amusement - rightfully pointing out that just because some delusional house seller raising his asking price from 700k to 900K didnt mean that he "gained" anything.

As such, its amusing to be here 7 years later and seeing bears doing the same thing they (rightfully) ridiculed the bulls on so many years before.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

exfatguy says

Perhaps the devil incarnate showed up and cursed the house. Anyone that enters suffers immediate death. That's the only thing that could justify a decrease of this magnitude in this new real estate economy.

Better to die for real than suffer 30 year of a slow death with debt. At least it is quick.

You could say the same thing for those who rent for a lifetime, the last payment being due in the month they draw their last breath of life on this planet.

Ive often thought this to be an unfair outcome... Time was, 30 years of working at a company would merit a gold watch from your employer upon retirement. Likewise, perhaps after 30 years of renting, your landlord should present you with a cyanide capsule such that you can avoid the next 20-30-40 years of paying if you so choose...

RentingForHalfTheCost says

lovelafayette says

So does this mean that your house that you live in and pay 3k in rent is only worth $650,000 instead of 1.3 mil. I guess you were only off by 50%

Only a comment that can come from someone over extended in real estate. Good luck to you digging yourself out of 30 years of debt all for an ageing pile of wood and nails.

So is your house still worth 1.3 million? How much has it dropped in this housing bear market that we are in?

lovelafayette says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

lovelafayette says

So does this mean that your house that you live in and pay 3k in rent is only worth $650,000 instead of 1.3 mil. I guess you were only off by 50%

Only a comment that can come from someone over extended in real estate. Good luck to you digging yourself out of 30 years of debt all for an ageing pile of wood and nails.

So is your house still worth 1.3 million? How much has it dropped in this housing bear market that we are in?

Recently appraised at 1.25m. We are just at the entrance to the bear market, which is my point. Everyone around here has a great ability to predict the past, and also back it up with fancy graphs. I am in the market of estimating the future and benefiting from it. One we should all pay attention to and not be consumed with what has happened yesterday.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Recently appraised at 1.25m.

You had the house you are renting appraised?

I've made this point before, but its worth repeating.. when leverage in the market is high, then its all about managing the sentiment.. when the sentiment turns or stalls, then prices will reflect very quickly.... Wall Street knows this which is why they are pumping housing all the while they are shorting it..

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Recently appraised at 1.25m.

You had the house you are renting appraised?

Yes, the landlord is after me to buy it. He is retired and living elsewhere and would love to sell it to me and not go through the hassle of a realtor/mls. I pretty much knew my answer, but we split the cost of an appraisal as a negotiation starting point. Well, it about ended there. The agreement between us now is he will sell when I am ready to leave. If I didn't have my own interests at heart I would tell him to sell now FCOL. ;)

RentingForHalfTheCost says

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Recently appraised at 1.25m.

You had the house you are renting appraised?

Yes, the landlord is after me to buy it. He is retired and living elsewhere and would love to sell it to me and not go through the hassle of a realtor/mls. I pretty much knew my answer, but we split the cost of an appraisal as a negotiation starting point. Well, it about ended there. The agreement between us now is he will sell when I am ready to leave. If I didn't have my own interests at heart I would tell him to sell now FCOL. ;)

What's that smell?

Bigsby says

What's that smell?

Time for a shower there fella? I can see the neglect even in your words. ;)

RentingForHalfTheCost says

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Recently appraised at 1.25m.

You had the house you are renting appraised?

Yes, the landlord is after me to buy it. He is retired and living elsewhere and would love to sell it to me and not go through the hassle of a realtor/mls. I pretty much knew my answer, but we split the cost of an appraisal as a negotiation starting point. Well, it about ended there. The agreement between us now is he will sell when I am ready to leave. If I didn't have my own interests at heart I would tell him to sell now FCOL. ;)

Care to explain why this house is listed for half of what your house appraised for when they have the same square footage?

Schools, neighborhood, lot size nearly .25 acres, everything updated, gunnite pool/spa, custom BBQ, 50k of pristine landscaping, etc, etc.

It is actually a real house, custom built, and not the usual cottages around here.

Btw, there is a vacant lot in my area that is 900k . It is not even as nice as the lot my rental house is on. 1.25m makes sense comparing it to the lot. All crazy talk to me. I'm a buyer at 750k tops, or 3k/mth rent wins.

You would have to be blind to not see the softening in the current market. Call it "seasonal", FED tapering, magic beans, whatever.

But it can't be denied that:

- Inventory bottomed in most metros about 2-3 months ago.
- Rates are heading towards 5% (6% if you're using FHA)
- Investor participation has gone nearly to ZERO since July.
- Purchase Mortgage Applications have begun to slide again.

kmo722 says

That's because he too is concerned with market sentiment and figures he will use PatNet to defend it..

He's also got an entire thread that could pretty much make him quit this forum out of shame on the front page. Unless he wants to wade through the embarrassment of being a total asshole who got it wrong. I wouldn't put it beneath him, he's done it before.

So there's a lot riding on him defending his predictions at all cost (even being a liar face).

Yes, I've heard your "seasonal" explanation about a thousand times. BTW where's tatupu70 to reinforce it?

The best part about this is, we'll find out fairly soon whether you're right or wrong in the next 12-18 months. So sit tight, and enjoy the show.

The most vocal people on Pat.net? You have nearly 14,000 post buddy. Most of us wouldn't reach that for another 5-10 years.

Goran_K says

Yes, I've heard your "seasonal" explanation about a thousand times. BTW
where's tatupu70 to reinforce it?

Thanks for asking! I'm here. But you supposedly have me on ignore, so I don't feel the need to respond to your inane posts...

Goran_K says

Really? Do they go on 5+ year downward trends too?

Not sure what you're talking about. What's been on a 5 year downward trend?? Mortgage applications certainly haven't. The purchase index been slightly risisng since mid-2010.

http://ycharts.com/indicators/existing_home_sales/chart/#/?series=type:indicator,id:existing_home_sales,,&format=real&recessions=false&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&chartView=

Jeez you guys, Getalife!

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Enough said.

Exactly.

I expect to see 4.75% at Wells, BofA, Chase, any of the big box banks.

Over the conforming limit?
Haven't had 3-5 years of provable W2 income?
Any spotty credit history (short sale, missed CC payments, etc)?

You can add another half point easily.

Goran_K says

But But But. The 3.31% is using money from the east coast of the country and the 4.58% is using money from the west coast. You are comparing apples to apples and that is just not a fair comparison. Hence you are a troll. You also are envious of all my patrick-based friends, even though they are mostly my drug dealing renters in the dungeons of Concord. They are still friends though.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

We made it! And they are. Silly duck

Really? Please show me on the chart that your alter-ego posted where the rate hits 6%

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

We made it! And they are. Silly duck

Really? Please show me on the chart that your alter-ego posted where the rate hits 6%/

Oh, it has to be in chart form for you to understand? Having troubling following again I see.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Oh, it has to be in chart form for you to understand? Having troubling
following again I see.

Nope, just pointing out how inconsistent you two seem to be...

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Oh, it has to be in chart form for you to understand? Having troubling

following again I see.

Nope, just pointing out how inconsistent you two seem to be...

Please be a little clearer then. Are you saying that no where in this thread did I say rates over 6% for a 30yr FHA loan? Before you answer, please scroll up and check. Many then you will see your own inconsistencies.