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Long Apple


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2013 Sep 6, 3:24pm   27,774 views  68 comments

by SFace   ➕follow (7)   💰tip   ignore  

Apple has been strangely quiet since iPhone 5. Everyone knows Sep-Dec is Apple domination quarter and for end of 2013 it will be especially plentiful.

Here is what a lot of people expect:

Iphone 5s with IoS 7. More to follow on the Cupertino event in details. There is no shortage on news anyway. over the course of 2013, HTC one, Moto X, BBRY, Galaxy 4S came out and none were blocckbuster hits, people will buy the 5S.

Iphone 5C. The midmarket smartphone. Apple lost market share due to ignoring the non-premium market. Well this should turn the tide. It will canabalize the 5S but getting back some lost market share is extremely important to Apple. My feeling is they want to be in 30% market share range and this had to be made to get those customers. Will it be a China/India/Indonesia phone? I don't see the C in North America.

Ipad 5: Still the king of Pad's for good reasons. While everyone has different taste for phones, everyone has the same taste for Ipads. Natural upgrade cycle is coming.

Ipad Mini with Retina: The perfect kids machine and the newly developing school market.

Phone deal with China mobile and other carriers. LG, Samsung, Huwei, etc, have benefitted from a lack of lower-priced product. Well, it should be the end of that. The 5C is built for the Asia market that the majoroty of customers favor.

Apple had an "off" year with no new product in 2013 so far and stil made 50B pre-tax. Well, you know Apple have Sep circled and will have a huge season. At least history has proven itself and brand equity is still strong.

Technically, Apple is poised to enter what is a known as a golden cross, a surefile accumulation signal. Last Nov, it was the death cross and predicablt went down another 25% upon hitting the cross. I expect 25% upside @500 and target $625 in 3 months. Apple doesn't follow market trends anyway so even if you are worry about Syria, Apple is still a great long. Call activities have significant premiums for those looking for Dec/Jan calls and not worth it.

If you have extra investable cash, I will just buy shares straight up for a fantastic risk/reward proposition.

Good luck.

disclosure:

55 shares long at $498.

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18   Vicente   2013 Sep 11, 7:07am  

SFace says

yes, the Iphone 5C is too expensive. Can't crack the asian market with that price tag.

What if they offer the 5c at a lower price point in China? Do they really have to be that strict about uniform global pricing you think?

19   hanera   2013 Sep 11, 10:46am  

Vicente says

... I would have liked ONE little surprise ...

Pricing? M7? Free iWork and iLife? 64 bit OS? True flash?

20   hanera   2013 Sep 11, 10:50am  

SFace says

yes, the Iphone 5C is too expensive. Can't crack the asian market with that price tag.

It is WallStreet that keep doling out those disinformation that Apple plans to compete aggressively in the Asian market with a cheap iPhone. After awhile, we start to believe them. To WS's disappointment, Apple is going about its business as usual. Having said that, Apple drops price of iPhone 4 by US$122 in China.

21   Vicente   2013 Sep 11, 11:44am  

hanera says

Pricing? M7? Free iWork and iLife? 64 bit OS? True flash?

Yeah, none of that just made me go COOL, I have to buy one.

I have a 4S right now. I may just sit until next generation.

22   hanera   2013 Sep 11, 11:52am  

Vicente says

hanera says

Pricing? M7? Free iWork and iLife? 64 bit OS? True flash?

Yeah, none of that just made me go COOL, I have to buy one.

I have a 4S right now. I may just sit until next generation.

If you're in USA, it makes sense to sell your 4S and use the proceeds to get into another contract with the iPhone 5S. Net cost = 0. Not upgrading would be paying the carrier extra premium without enjoying the benefits.

23   Eman   2013 Sep 11, 1:36pm  

SFace says

yes, the Iphone 5C is too expensive. Can't crack the asian market with that price tag.

Well, the good news is everyone should download the new Ios7 update on Sep 18th. It would be a good chance to see what improvements are made to the software side of it.

I see it differently. This is an opportunity to buy AAPL stocks before it resumes its uptrend. I was hoping for a pullback to $485, but here it is sitting near its 200 DMA. Back up the truck & load it up.

24   SFace   2013 Sep 12, 4:10am  

Vicente says

SFace says



yes, the Iphone 5C is too expensive. Can't crack the asian market with that price tag.


What if they offer the 5c at a lower price point in China? Do they really have to be that strict about uniform global pricing you think?

I don't think phone manufacturer's have a full say in price. The telecom company determines the end price.

Vicente says

Yeah, none of that just made me go COOL, I have to buy one.


I have a 4S right now. I may just sit until next generation.

You should upgrade anyway. Your bill has anywhere between $15-$20 a month to pay for the $400 subsidy over two years whether you upgrade or not. Get the 5S and sell it for $700 and continue to use the 4S

25   Vicente   2013 Sep 13, 4:01am  

SFace says

You should upgrade anyway. Your bill has anywhere between $15-$20 a month to pay for the $400 subsidy over two years whether you upgrade or not. Get the 5S and sell it for $700 and continue to use the 4S

I don't follow that at all. I'm not liking my AT&T 2-year contract and subsidies any more. Paying subsidized rate for a phone but being locked in just rankles me.

Been using MobileShare 2Gig plan but at $185/month for 3 lines it's just too much. Now that my phones are off-contract thinking to move to T-Mobile which claims could handle them for $90/month. We'll see.

If I buy any new phones in future I think I'll just pay up front, and buy unlocked straight from Apple.

26   zzyzzx   2013 Sep 13, 4:21am  

E-man says

I was hoping for a pullback to $485

Did you buy any lately when it was less than that?

27   smaulgld   2013 Sep 13, 7:29am  

Does the tesla come with an iphone 5

28   RWSGFY   2013 Sep 18, 7:20am  

smaulgld says

Does the tesla come with an iphone 5

No, but some San Jose shacks come with Tesla.

29   FortWayne   2013 Oct 15, 11:54am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

The next great gadget hasn't even been thought of yet

It has been thought of, I've seen back to the future plenty of time.

Reminds me how the first computer was in a movie Metropolis in 1927... took a few decades to actually make one.

30   SFace   2013 Oct 17, 2:45am  

Still long and strong Apple.

Apple 5S should lead 15%- YOY profits for FY14. Then they absolutely need a 4.8 inch Iphone 6 for next year. Heading into the next 6 months, Apple has little competition now that the S4, HTC one, Nokia are nothing spectacular.

The real excitement will be the Ipad. a 64 bit Ipad that is thinner, lighter with a longer battery life will absolutely be a huge seller. The A7 chip combined with Iworks will make this an enterprise favorite and ruin Microsoft again. The retina mini is too obvious and will be coveted by the parents for their kids. It's going to be a huge seller this christmas as the consumers are desparate for an upgrade and should make up for Macs and Ipods in FY14.

31   Vicente   2013 Oct 17, 4:30am  

egads101 says

thinking of selling it and getting the ipad mini if it is cool.

I have a mini and love the weight, great to travel with! When I picked up a standard iPad after using a mini for a while it felt HEAVY.

But...and there's always a but.... my eyesight is not what it once was and the smaller screen makes me reach for reading glasses where the standard did not. I am thinking about picking up a full size 16G WiFI at next refresh so I have something as a hangar queen for "around the house" usage that is easier on my eyes. Keep the mini for travelling and family use.

Long AAPL as well, had added to my position a little during dip.

32   EBGuy   2013 Oct 22, 9:19am  

Vicente said: When I picked up a standard iPad after using a mini for a while it felt HEAVY.
I guess they're listening. Less is more.

33   Vicente   2013 Oct 23, 9:40am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

You never, I repeat never, build your business model around competing against the likes of Samsung.

They used to say things like that about IBM.

We shall see.

34   hanera   2013 Oct 23, 12:47pm  

An American cursing an American business? God helps America!

35   clambo   2013 Oct 23, 2:44pm  

Yeah, Samsung.
I have a nice wireless laser printer for $57 made by them.
They must have made $10 profit.

36   mell   2013 Oct 23, 3:07pm  

clambo says

Yeah, Samsung.

I have a nice wireless laser printer for $57 made by them.

They must have made $10 profit.

Yeah, but they commoditize every market eventually, and their products are usually decent. Samsung is a beast.

37   SFace   2013 Oct 24, 9:44am  

clambo says

Yeah, Samsung.
I have a nice wireless laser printer for $57 made by them.
They must have made $10 profit.

Have you checked out the price of the toners? I dunnno $69 - 99$ or so. That is $40-$60 profits and recurring. lol

Having said that, Samsung lost some mojo this year on the galaxy line. S4 was a dud. Apple will enjoy record profits in FY14.

38   anotheraccount   2013 Oct 24, 10:07am  

SFace says

Having said that, Samsung lost some mojo this year on the galaxy line. S4 was a dud. Apple will enjoy record profits in FY14.

Margin compression. Look iPad mini is now is below $300 in order to fight competition. It would be interesting to see on Monday the breakdown of 5c vs. 5s sales. If 5c sales are even in 30% range, I believe we already had peak Apple profits.

39   SFace   2013 Oct 24, 10:08am  

treatmentreport says

SFace says



Having said that, Samsung lost some mojo this year on the galaxy line. S4 was a dud. Apple will enjoy record profits in FY14.


Margin compression. Look iPad mini is now is below $300 in order to fight competition. It would be interesting to see on Monday the breakdown of 5c vs. 5s sales. If 5c sales are even in 30% range, I believe we already had peak Apple profits.

The stock action in the last 3 weeks (quiet period) tells you they had a fantastic quarter and will have a fantastic christmas. It has broken out of $510 with conviction. The trend is up and institutions are loading.

everyone I know is buying the 5S, it is only limited by what is available. I just sold my Ipad and Ipad mini to upgade to the Ipad Air and Ipad mini retina next month. Will have to make do with the nexus 7 for now. They fixed the two major complaints I had with Apple

Ipad is too heavy, bulky
Ipad mini resulution sucks.

bingo and bingo and that is why people will upgrade.

40   anotheraccount   2013 Oct 25, 12:50am  

SFace says

It has broken out of $510 with conviction. The trend is up and institutions are loading.

It probably has to do something with iCahn blabbing about borrowing 150B to buy back shares which I think is stupid. Apple should keep its cash just in case. Their cash will allow them to survive for 50 years even if they hit hard times again.

I think they will sell a lot of iPhones in Q3, but I want to see the breakdown. I know that in bay area almost everyone will buy 5s, but what happens outside matters more. Also, I think that in Q4 they will miss iPad sales, as completion is getting crazy in tablet market.

Long term, profits will be down. I don't think they can make it up on volume.

41   hanera   2013 Oct 25, 12:19pm  

Believe goal of IC blabbering is to attract attention to the undervaluation of Apple. IC would wait till Apple becomes overvalued due to momentum traders buying before selling out.

tr6 - Apple usual practice is to keep new model at the same price and lower last year model price. Last year's iPad mini is priced at $329, and is lowered to $299, dropping $30. Pricing is not intended to compete with competitors but rather to support pricing of the new model. Kind of give a sense of value to the new model.

42   anotheraccount   2013 Oct 25, 12:32pm  

hanera says

Apple usual practice is to keep new model at the same price and lower last year model price. Last year's iPad mini is priced at $329, and is lowered to $299, dropping $30. Pricing is not intended to compete with competitors but rather to support pricing of the new model. Kind of give a sense of value to the new model.

Except they are raising the price of the new model to 399 to get some margin back. My guess is the 299 model will sell better than the 399 model.

43   FortWayne   2013 Oct 25, 3:51pm  

Since so many of you are apple experts. What's a better bang for the buck, iPad or iPad mini? Want to get one for wifey this Christmas.

Thank you in advance for any advice.

44   Vicente   2013 Oct 25, 4:49pm  

How's her near sight? Mini better value but challenges my 40+yo eyes.

45   Mick Russom   2013 Oct 26, 2:46am  

AAPL. Walled garden fashion statement. Its not technology, and its no longer best of breed, and 80% share is Android now. As long as the 1%-ers are doing great, theyll be paying $650-$850 for these idiotic locked phones and foolish contracts with data limits.

46   Vicente   2013 Oct 26, 2:51am  

Mick Russom says

foolish contract with data limits.

This seems a separate issue. For whatever reason most put up with that, there's T-Mobile which has no cap, but they do slow you down after X limit is passed. But their network is not as large or as good.

47   anotheraccount   2013 Oct 26, 4:16am  

FortWayne says

Since so many of you are apple experts. What's a better bang for the buck, iPad or iPad mini? Want to get one for wifey this Christmas.

If you are set on iPad, wait for black Friday and get 10% off whichever one you decide on.

48   FortWayne   2013 Oct 26, 3:12pm  

Vicente says

How's her near sight? Mini better value but challenges my 40+yo eyes.

Good point, certainly makes the case for the bigger one.

49   hanera   2013 Oct 26, 5:53pm  

FortWayne says

Vicente says

How's her near sight? Mini better value but challenges my 40+yo eyes.

Good point, certainly makes the case for the bigger one.

I'm buying iPad Air for sure. Eyesight bad.

50   hanera   2013 Dec 4, 8:16am  

$565

51   Vicente   2013 Dec 4, 8:47am  

China issued 4G LTE TDD licensing today

If this means 5S and 6 come to China Mobile, then targets will have to be revised upwards.

My portfolio is heavy on AAPL lately, a source of both joy & worry.

52   Vicente   2014 Apr 28, 2:52pm  

Still long AAPL, wondering if it is headed past 700 before it split.

53   clambo   2014 Apr 28, 3:06pm  

Apple makes about $2000/second profit.

54   anotheraccount   2014 Apr 28, 5:55pm  

Here we go again. The latest run up has all to do with financial engineering and not fundamentals. Steve Jobs would have never taken on debt to buy back shares of the company.

iPads are getting killed by competition (the only times I buy iPads anymore is when they are on huge sales). As US carriers move off subsidy based models, the average price of an iPhone will drop below $500 over the next three years to four years. It will be much harder to make serious profits.

55   zzyzzx   2014 Apr 28, 11:41pm  

tr6 says

Steve Jobs would have never taken on debt to buy back shares of the company.

I always thought that was questionable move. Having said that I believe Apple is doing that because they want to keep their cash untaxed in foreign accounts.

56   Vicente   2014 May 5, 6:57am  

Crossed 600 again today, first time since late 2012.

57   EBGuy   2014 May 12, 5:14am  

Accessorize!

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