patrick.net

The Professor says

I did not look very hard to find this. So if 41% of working age adults are not employed and 10 to 20% do not want to work that still leaves us with an unemployment rate of triple the official number. Is my math wrong?

Some percentage of those are in school.

Anyhow, I don't question the point that there are discouraged workers not counted in the official unemployment rate. My point is that this rate has nothing specific to do with the unemployment benefits or lack of same.

The Professor says

did leave out deadbeats. What percentage of the population does not want to
work even without government benefits?

Stay at home Moms?

tatupu70 says

The Professor says

did leave out deadbeats. What percentage of the population does not want to
work even without government benefits?

Stay at home Moms?

That demographic is the true bastion of backwardness, almost the same as muslim women wearing burkas in america, well maybe not quite but still....

The Professor says

Would you agree that the REAL unemployment rate (those that want to work full time but can't find a job or are under-employed) is well over the official rate of 7.2%?

Yes, I agree that there are many discouraged workers and under-employed.

egads101 says

In fact, their prior guess, that many owners are still underwater and hence can't sell at today's prices would be a hell of alot easier to investigate, and they didn't even bother to do that.

Because, if that were the reason, then we would be seeing more sellers as more of them are no longer underwater with rising prices. Instead we are seeing fewer. That may be a part of the reason for some people, but it cannot be the main reason.

egads101 says

Name ANY time in history when real estate markets changed quickly. I was the crash coming from 2005. Inventory built up spectacularly in 2006, but prices kept going up. It took a snails pace three more years to really crash prices.

Inventory began to start building in the Fall of 2005 and prices drifted higher for another 4 months or so, until roughly the Spring/Summer of 2006. Then they began to fall. The more they fell, the more sellers listed and the fall picked up steam.

I'm not sure how you define quickly... some parts of the Bay Area and central valley fall 40% in 2008 alone.

I do agree with you in that, even if this is the beginning of a change, we probably won't see prices really start to drop too much until next June or July, as Spring sellers start to give in and drop prices to compete for buyers.

I'm not predicting this... I am not saying that I have a crystal ball. However, I do believe there is more risk in the market than a lot of others here are giving credit.

egads101 says

NOWHERE in that paper does it even suggest any sudden rush to exit now or in the future. Either you can't read, or you just chose to make that title up yourself.

Further, "waiting, since prices are rising" was given as exactly one speculative guess to describe the situation: rising prices/falling inventory.

It was more than simply "one speculative guess," it was the conclusion they reached as the most likely reason. And, if everyone is simply holding on BECAUSE prices are rising, the implication is that they will no longer hold on when prices are no longer rising.

Clearly you believe that the market has shot up 30% in the last 18 months based on solid fundamentals and a booming economy. Clearly you believe the trend will continue.

I worry that we are nearly back to peak pricing (which most of us would regard as more than people can afford) and we've been buoyed by artificially-low interest rates and housing inventory - both things that are not going to last forever.

I live in Danviile where the inventory of homes for sale has been anywhere from 30-40% of where it should be for the last 18 months or so. Buyers wanting a certain neighborhood have no choice but to complete for the handful of available listings. Prices have skyrocketed.

If inventory would have been normal, I doubt prices would have risen much. When inventory normalizes, I expect that prices will trend to where they otherwise would have been.

I just want to say I think condescending behaviour on this site inhibits communication and the learning process
as well as creating a hostile, uncomfortable, fearful environment.

Mr. Fielding I believe is a Realtor. I personally do not expect him to communicate as a NASA Scientist.
Ok with me. I would think people come to this website in an attempt to make sense of this current,
complex, economic environment. Sure, 2005 was a 'no brainer', anyone with an IQ over 100 had the
thought the market would crash no matter what the media was telling us.

Over the years, I have thanked Patrick many times publicly for my good fortune 10 years ago.
However, at this moment, I will not disrespect myself to be cathartically shit on.
Whatever floats your boat, but for me, absolutely not.

As I have also mentioned publically, had my thinking been a little different, I would have played
this phase of the game differently. I would have saw the opportunity. Didn't happen.
Please see paragraph one and two.

egads101 says

3 years ago, you didn't expect them to rise...In fact, you posted on here that you expected them to go down 100,00s of K further...

I did. I expected the bubbly to fully-deflate and prices here in the Bay Area to return to 1998 levels or lower. I was selling foreclosures for banks and had intimate knowledge of the pipeline.

I did not expect government interference to be so effective. With moratoriums and FASB accounting changes, they essentially shut down the foreclosure pipeline. Then Supply began to fall and prices start to rise again.

I also am not claiming to be an oracle.

gregpfielding says

I did not expect government interference to be so effective. With moratoriums
and FASB accounting changes, they essentially shut down the foreclosure
pipeline. Then Supply began to fall and prices start to rise again.

Except that's not true. The foreclosure pipeline has been very much depleted and in CA isn't that far above norms now.

David9 says

Mr. Fielding I believe is a Realtor. I personally do not expect him to communicate as a NASA Scientist.

Ok with me. I would think people come to this website in an attempt to make sense of this current,

complex, economic environment.

Trying.

David9 says

I just want to say I think condescending behaviour on this site inhibits communication and the learning process

as well as creating a hostile, uncomfortable, fearful environment.

I've been on here for years and Patrick has regularly shared links to articles I've written. I can take the heat.

You are absolutely correct that there are probably dozens of lurkers here who would like to contribute but don't want to deal with potential attacks.

tatupu70 says

Except that's not true. The foreclosure pipeline has been very much depleted and in CA isn't that far above norms now.

Not sure what you mean? I said the foreclosure pipeline was depleted. Do you mean not that far above normal foreclosure numbers?

gregpfielding says

You are absolutely correct that there are probably dozens of lurkers here who
would like to contribute but don't want to deal with potential attacks.

Yes! And that is lost knowledge.

"Information is not knowledge"
Albert Einstein

gregpfielding says

Not sure what you mean? I said the foreclosure pipeline was depleted. Do you
mean not that far above normal foreclosure numbers?

I think I misunderstood you. I was thinking you were implying that there were properties remaining to be foreclosed. Now I think you meant that people refinanced so they won't need to be foreclosed.

Is that correct?

egads101 says

I find giving my excellent advice out for free, plus calling lots of people fucktards and nitwits on here quite cathartic;

Can't really do either during the day gig :-)

Isn't that the archetypical job description of a college instructor?