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Malkovich
2013 Dec 16, 1:08pm
As a former bear, I am afraid I am inclined to believe you. Lot of inlfuencers.. the dirty chinese... newly rich techies.. i don't see the tech bubble bursting anytime soon... it is all based around narcissistic tendencies of people... facebook, twitter, instagram, snapchat...
The big question is what will happen when the boomers start dying off... oh, nevermind, they will xfer the property to their kids to enjoy the prop 13 practically free prop tax... so no new inventory there.
who could have known? my crystal ball was in the shop. =(
SFace
2013 Dec 16, 2:50pm
The problem is there are very few new SFH in San Mateo County historically and prospectively. So as several new million people are added into the mix, essentially you have no new supply of SFH in the most coveted areas.
San Mateo County population went from 550K in 1970 to 718K in 2010 according to the census when the bay area added several million people in those 40 years. It's not a lack of demand that holds back the population, its essentially no new supply and no new supply for the next 30 years. (below proportional and the ones added will be condos, apartments not SFH)
With Prop 13, step up basis, wealth transfer, it does not look good from an affordabiliy basis in the coveted area. Having the benefit of living in SF, I understand the majoroty will never sell and it will be passed on to the next gen and the next. If I was a buyer, San Mateo, Palo Alto etc. SFH are guaranteed bets no matter what the rent calculator says. It is the basic of supply and demand. Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore with the still wealth of flat undeveloped areas, which will be developed, not so much.
Bellingham Bill
2013 Dec 16, 2:53pm
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CASANM0POP
has San Mateo County population
Table 1 Bay Area Population, Employment and Housing Projections, 2010–2040
Category 2010 2040
Growth
2010–2040
Percent Change
2010–2040
Population 7,151,000 9,299,000 2,148,000 +30%
Jobs 3,385,000 4,505,000 1,120,000 +33%
Households 2,608,000 3,308,000 700,000 +27%
Housing Units 2,786,000 3,446,000 660,000 +24%
Between 2010 and 2040, population is projected to grow by 2,148,000 while housing units are projected to increase by only 660,000. So, in essence we will have net extra 1,488,000 competitors for housing compared to 2010. Just peachy!
http://onebayarea.org/file10044.html
#housing