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Bay area bubble: 2-3 more years of rising prices. Another 4-5 years to bottom?
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2013 Dec 22, 4:05pm 10,434 views 46 comments
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Oh, and another question:
Although SJ and SF came down 37% in the 90s. What happened to Cupertino? Los Altos? Menlo Park? Did they do as badly?
And hey Folks, you really rock!. Both Bull and Bear arguments are very strong here and it definitely helps in making an informed decision, or at least building a reasonable hypothesis. Wether you want to invest in the short term, or the long term, I have found precious information from both bears and bulls in this site. Thanks Patrick!
Oh, another question, Thomas.
Are these 37% drop in values in both SJ and SF: are they real drop in values? or nominal?
Cheers!
We have a really good infrastructure for biotech (industry, universities, and VCs). Biggest biotech, Gilead, is here. The threat to established biotech might come from "bio-hacking" in the next decade.
Thanks. That's what I really meant. Not traditional biotech.
:-) :-)
Cool. Understood. Thx much for the data. So the difference is in real values vs. nominal values.
Still, really good points of view from both sides folks. It looks a lot like it's better to pull the trigger, just as long as we are talking about the real bay area (los altos, palo alto, menlo park, cupertino, etc).
cheers!
hanera
2013 Dec 29, 6:18am
It looks a lot like it's better to pull the trigger, just as long as we are talking about the real bay area (los altos, palo alto, menlo park, cupertino, etc).
I recalled in 2011 when I was looking for houses, the price drop (from pre-financial crisis high to post-crisis bottom) in real bay area is about 15-25% and 40-70% for other parts of SFBA.
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http://www.rntl.net/history_of_a_housing_bubble.htm
For the purpose of discussion and brainstorming
The bubble in souther california started around the same "low inventory" premises as today's bay area real estate situation.
The low inventory situation started in 1985. It got out of control, and finally started collapsing in 1990. It was not until 1993-1994 that it bottomed.
Questions:
1) Would you think that the bay area's current situation is similar?
2) Do you think the article of the link above is not accurate? (or, am I not interpreting it right?)
3) Do you know of other housing bubbles in california, previous to the 50s/60s/70s?
Cheers!
#housing