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Came across this thread from 2012. Good prediction


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2014 Feb 9, 4:28am   17,118 views  49 comments

by hrhjuliet   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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6 12:36pm Sat 31 Mar 2012 Share Quote Permalink Like Dislike Delete
I also think that this summer will be hot for RE in the Bay Area. All of my coworkers, and many acquaintances I have met at parties, are talking about RE and how "now is the time." It sounds like 2010, except instead of cash subsidies driving things, it is "low interest rates, I have been waiting 2 WHOLE years, and everyone is buying again and I don't want to be priced out!"

I do not expect any improvements in affordability this year almost entirely because it is an election year. So many people are either underwater or have their entire net worth staked on an inflated paper value for their house that our fearless leader's reelection can't risk making houses more affordable for people that aren't currently house poor. There are more loan owner voters out there than not.

With the general election coming in 2014, I also suspect that our legislators will also be fighting a against affordability to keep the votes of the house poor masses. I could be entirely wrong (hopefully) since much of this is based on anecdotal evidence and some cynicism, sooooo I guess we will just have to wait and see.

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46   rooemoore   2014 Feb 10, 12:31pm  

Reality says

The Dow Jones average looks beautiful over 110 years. However, just don't think the shoeshine boy buying in 1929 would profit nicely.

Can we stay on SFBA real estate? Most of the foreign investors that I said would be fine with their purchases bought a couple of years ago. Perhaps the reason they aren't buying now is because prices are too high. That is why I said they would be fine. Most didn't overpay.

47   Reality   2014 Feb 10, 12:34pm  

rooemoore says

Reality says

The Dow Jones average looks beautiful over 110 years. However, just don't think the shoeshine boy buying in 1929 would profit nicely.

Can we stay on SFBA real estate? Most of the foreign investors that I said would be fine with their purchases bought a couple of years ago. Perhaps the reason they aren't buying now is because prices are too high. That is why I said they would be fine. Most didn't overpay.

I was talking the ones buying in SFBA now . . . as some other members of the forum reporting seeing many of them at recent open houses.

48   FunTime   2014 Feb 11, 3:05am  

Reality says

The Dow Jones average looks beautiful over 110 years. However, just don't think the shoeshine boy buying in 1929 would profit nicely.

The shoe shine boy would not have lost money as long as he held the stock seventeen years or more according to the Merrill Lynch reps who used to present 401k plans.(I know, I know...)

49   dublin hillz   2014 Feb 11, 3:16am  

FunTime says

Reality says



The Dow Jones average looks beautiful over 110 years. However, just don't think the shoeshine boy buying in 1929 would profit nicely.


The shoe shine boy would not have lost money as long as he held the stock seventeen years or more according to the Merrill Lynch reps who used to present 401k plans.(I know, I know...)

To put 17 years in perspective, in soviet union, the maximum penalty besides the death penalty was 15 years in prison...

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