patrick.net

hrhjuliet says

Renting is the smarter option, unless you bought before the mid nineties

You've mentioned that house prices should be 2 times median income but if you take your theory further it will lead to home prices being 7 annual rents in most of SFBA. That ain't gonna happen because who would sell in that situation? Prices need to reflect at least 15 annual rents at these interest rates and should fall in the 15-20 annual rents range.

dublin hillz says

FunTime says

"You just bought a house! Welcome to your new life where every decision is

predicated on the value of it."

It's almost 3 years since I closed escrow and I have not made a single decision since then that was predicated on the value of my pad. Not even one.

Keep up the good work. Only 27 years to go. All for something that 3 guys build in 2 months. Makes perfect sense.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

dublin hillz says

FunTime says

"You just bought a house! Welcome to your new life where every decision is

predicated on the value of it."

It's almost 3 years since I closed escrow and I have not made a single decision since then that was predicated on the value of my pad. Not even one.

Keep up the good work. Only 27 years to go. All for something that 3 guys build in 2 months. Makes perfect sense.

Don't worry, you're only 14. Plenty of time to save up.

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

dublin hillz says

FunTime says

"You just bought a house! Welcome to your new life where every decision is

predicated on the value of it."

It's almost 3 years since I closed escrow and I have not made a single decision since then that was predicated on the value of my pad. Not even one.

Keep up the good work. Only 27 years to go. All for something that 3 guys build in 2 months. Makes perfect sense.

Don't worry, you're only 14. Plenty of time to save up.

At 14 I'm pretty sure I have more saved than everyone on this site except a few. Remember, I don't have a mortgage payment holding me back.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

At 14 I'm pretty sure I have more saved than everyone on this site except a few. Remember, I don't have a mortgage payment holding me back.

Crack open your piggy bank and let us know.

"It’s now cheaper to rent than own."

Out here, it's always been that way. It's pretty interesting to see a shock on some clueless neighbors when they come to realization that they have to pay taxes every year, trash pick up, and other utilities, with a boatload on maintenance because the previous owner just skipped it for the past 60 years.

I still don't know why so many people who buy are not aware of all the costs, it's like they think mortgage is the only bill they'll have...

Somehow with patrick renting since 1998 this seems like a total failure of this blog. This is the RE FAIL blog.

JH says

you pay the bank is retarded

I really do not know why I am so polite on this blog. What? the worst that can happen is someone will call me names.

http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Existing-Home-House-Sales/2014/02/21/id/553992?ns_mail_uid=83773948&ns_mail_job=1557062_02212014&promo_code=168B1-1

Someone else agrees above.

David9 says

JH says

you pay the bank is retarded

I really do not know why I am so polite on this blog. What? the worst that can happen is someone will call me names.

http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Existing-Home-House-Sales/2014/02/21/id/553992?ns_mail_uid=83773948&ns_mail_job=1557062_02212014&promo_code=168B1-1

Someone else agrees above.

All cash-sales accounted for 33 percent of all purchases, evidence that investors continue to make up a sizable share of the sales.

Wasn't it 40% in December? I'm surprised it's still so high in January, but nice to see we are on the better end of that bump. Although in terms of absolute numbers it probably isn't all that.

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

At 14 I'm pretty sure I have more saved than everyone on this site except a few. Remember, I don't have a mortgage payment holding me back.

Crack open your piggy bank and let us know.

Currently getting close to touching 2 million CASH. Not fake equity money, not fake (when I sell for a Zillion dollars to an all cash buyer) money. Real cold hard cash that came from income and proper investing. Not sitting on my ass hoping I was early enough to the Ponzi scheme to benefit from the greater fool. All BS if you ask me.

Tim Aurora says

If you are in a expensive market such as Silicon valley and do not have tons of cash do not not buy.

Even if you have tonnes of cash, there are about a 100 better things to invest in that wood, nails and land that suffers from lack of rain. Bubblegum would give you a better return in the long run.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Currently getting close to touching 2 million CASH. Not fake equity money, not fake (when I sell for a Zillion dollars to an all cash buyer) money. Real cold hard cash that came from income and proper investing. Not sitting on my ass hoping I was early enough to the Ponzi scheme to benefit from the greater fool. All BS if you ask me.

Was that last sentence a comment on what preceded it?

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Currently getting close to touching 2 million CASH. Not fake equity money, not fake (when I sell for a Zillion dollars to an all cash buyer) money. Real cold hard cash that came from income and proper investing. Not sitting on my ass hoping I was early enough to the Ponzi scheme to benefit from the greater fool. All BS if you ask me.

Was that last sentence a comment on what preceded it?

In your mind the only investment idea is real estate, so I can understand how it is hard to understand. Funny how all the owners are crowing about these amazing 10-15% returns, at the same time that the stock markets has shown 50-60% returns. I have yet to even change a lightbulb and am far better off now that all the owners that have no cash to their name. Thanks for paying all that tax each and every year also. Appreciate it.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

In your mind the only investment idea is real estate, so I can understand how it is hard to understand. Funny how all the owners are crowing about these amazing 10-15% returns, at the same time that the stock markets has shown 50-60% returns. I have yet to even change a lightbulb and am far better off now that all the owners that have no cash to their name. Thanks for paying all that tax each and every year also. Appreciate it.

When have I ever crowed about the 'return' on my ONE house, the one I live in when in America? You are the one that continually spouts off about your make believe investments. The rest of us just put our money aside in Vanguard or wherever and don't make a bloody fuss about it or even worse, like you, make up utterly obvious lies. But hey, enjoy paying rent when you're seventy. Only 56 more years to go.

FortWayne says

It’s now cheaper to rent than own."

Out here, it's always been that way. It's pretty interesting to see a shock on some clueless neighbors when they come to realization that they have to pay taxes every year, trash pick up, and other utilities, with a boatload on maintenance because the previous owner just skipped it for the past 60 years.

I still don't know why so many people who buy are not aware of all the costs, it's like they think mortgage is the only bill they'll have...

And if you own a well, yikes, talk about money and time out the door. I recently watched a friend sell his home because of his well (no kidding) and is now living off the interest that he sold his dump for, now he is renting and saving. It was funny, he wouldn't even rent from a person with a well\water pump after the trauma. Of course he also had neighbors next to the house he owned who loved to play loud music until well over midnight every Saturday night. He claims he enjoys renting because he can "move away from loud as$#oles without a capital gain hit and paying a F%$#ing realtor." Okay, that sad story aside, there was my colleague who was forced by the fire laws to improve her driveway, at a price higher than she bought the house for in the early nineties, or else a red tag. My sister's home in Aptos has some foundational issues due to the soil. When she rented in Aptos, guess who would have to pay to fix that problem? Not her, that's the real difference. Her little soil problem may have a six digit fix-it. Then we get to our family house. The balcony was engineered wrong and therefore caused water damage downstairs. Also, anyone standing on the balcony in the last year, despite how solid it looked, could have got to see more of our great view than bargained for. In a rental situation none of these issues are the renter's problem. Did I mention property tax? My sister also got surprise property taxes they did not budget for. I admit that got handled, but it was like another job for my sister who was dealing with the issue, plus the part that could not be changed had to be paid, so they sold a property in Washington they had to help pay for it. Owning can really stink, and if you had less than 50% down the bank owns it in my eyes anyway. Rent is so outrageous in some areas in the Bay, especially the City, that I could also argue that unless you move to an outlander town, renting is a terrible option too. There are very few options in the Bay Area for the middle-class that isn't some form of debt slavery.

Tim Aurora says

1. First of all even the stock market has shown a 15% return over the last 5
years. ( stop quoting individual stocks)

You might want to check what the S&P500 has returned over the last 5 years, it is much more than 15%. Why would I have even bothered investing in housing during this period when the Fed gave the stock market such a free gift?? It was a no brainer...............

I looked at a complete teardown shitshack in Parkside and it was listed at over 750K. If that's not a strong indication of a top forming.. ;)

mell says

I looked at a complete teardown shitshack in Parkside and it was listed at over 750K. If that's not a strong indication of a top forming.. ;)

My first and late California friend, a native, said exactly the same thing. "The banks are looking for fools." "Don't ever buy when you see this." "Prices go up and down here, it is part of the wealth."

David9 says

mell says

I looked at a complete teardown shitshack in Parkside and it was listed at over 750K. If that's not a strong indication of a top forming.. ;)

My first and late California friend, a native, said exactly the same thing. "The banks are looking for fools." "Don't ever buy when you see this." "Prices go up and down here, it is part of the wealth."

Yeah, and while arguably real estate has been doing relatively well, it has been massively supported since ZIRP policies and buying of MBS have become normalcy in the US. When ZIRP has run its course and they cannot buy any more MBS, then you may see a real, longer lasting correction where prices return closer to their intrinsic values.

mell says

buying of MBS have become normalcy in the US. When ZIRP has run its course and they cannot buy any more MBS, then

Cute, less than 2 minutes video on Mortgage Backed Securities;

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/what-are-mortgage-backed-securities/

Yeah, that is a systemic change that is still in full effect, as well as the suspension of mark to market accounting, plus quantitative easing, and viola!

I would like to add if someone sees a way to make this setup work for them, go for it.

Renting is your best bet if you plan to be a loser forever

Define loser. I would feel like a loser if I wasn't intelligent enough to come up with anything but childish little one line insults, but maybe you don't hold such high standards for yourself. I guess your home is paid for, so everyone who rents from the bank, and everyone who rents from a landlord is a loser in your mind. Wow, you sound like a really nice guy. I own my home, as in it's paid for, but funny, I don't see everyone who rents as a loser. I was renting not too long ago myself. Spent most of my life renting. That's how we saved, and to be honest I did a lot for my community and family during that renting time of my life. I'm pretty sure you have a very different view on what makes a person a loser. For me, being a loser has nothing to do with where you live or what you own, but I'm old fashion; I still believe being a loser means being a selfish jerk, or a rude idiot, or something along those lines.

Tim Aurora says

Bm05211983 says

Renting is your best bet if you plan to be a loser forever

A blanket statement that makes no sense whatsoever

He's just trolling: ignore

I've been living in the Bay Area since the late 90s and have been renting the entire time. Not that I am a naysayer when it comes to real estate. It is just that I never felt comfortable over-extending myself to purchase a property that, quite frankly, is not very nice.

Most of the homes here are very old and require a large amount of work, with the exception of the glossy mansions. So I never felt I was getting good value for my money. It seemed like I would have to take a massive risk with a singular income.

Would I have made money had I bought? Probably. But at the same time, I also have saved a large amount of money by renting and leveraging other investment vehicles, like stocks.

I honestly have no idea what will happen to real estate in the next few years, but logic tells me to be cautious. If the Fed begins to taper its QE work and interest rates begin to rise, that will put quite a bit of downward pressure on prices. Although at the same time, if the economy is improving, maybe it will be a wash. Only time will tell.

Diomedes777 says

I've been living in the Bay Area since the late 90s and have been renting the
entire time. Not that I am a naysayer when it comes to real estate. It is just
that I never felt comfortable over-extending myself to purchase a property that,
quite frankly, is not very nice.

I felt similar when I lived in the Bay Area. Even if I could afford one of the small million dollar ranch homes, I always felt like why am I paying this much money and only getting this very marginal property in return.

Analyzer says

I always felt like why am I paying this much money and only getting this very marginal property in return.

In my experience, the previous owners often don't have enough money to care for the houses they are selling. They are marginal properties that haven't been cared for in the 50 years since they were built.

Why should I pay top dollar for those?

mell says

Yeah, and while arguably real estate has been doing relatively well, it has been massively supported since ZIRP policies and buying of MBS have become normalcy in the US. When ZIRP has run its course and they cannot buy any more MBS, then you may see a real, longer lasting correction where prices return closer to their intrinsic values.

I hope you are right.

bg says

Analyzer says

I always felt like why am I paying this much money and only getting this very marginal property in return.

In my experience, the previous owners often don't have enough money to care for the houses they are selling. They are marginal properties that haven't been cared for in the 50 years since they were built.

Why should I pay top dollar for those?

Right, somehow you feel like you are getting ripped.

adarmiento says

The people buying homes in San Fran are well above the median income levels and probably make a very large downpayment. I imagine those within or below the median income levels are renting, either renting a room within a boarding house, or sharing an apartment.

Keep imagining. My point is exactly the opposite. If you look at median incomes for the area and compare with media house prices AND you look at ownership rates you conclude that people are buying way more than they can afford.

dublin hillz says

It's almost 3 years since I closed escrow and I have not made a single decision since then that was predicated on the value of my pad. Not even one.

A good indication that you're one of the few who can afford their house!

"If you look at median incomes for the area and compare with media house prices AND you look at ownership rates you conclude that people are buying way more than they can afford"

Interesting that you mentioned that. Virtually all the people I know that purchased homes did so by stretching their finances tremendously. The one egregious example I can think of was a former colleague of mine that literally liquidated everything he had (401k included) to procure the down payment on his house. He told me he was left with $87 dollars in his bank account and nothing else, other than the property.

I just did a quick search for my area (I rent in Los Gatos). The median household income for this area (which is pretty affluent) is currently at around $120,000. The median home price however is at around $1,000,000. Nearly ten times actual median income.

To be fair, I don't think the median income includes proceeds from stock IPOs or people who banked a massive pay day from a startup. But nonetheless, interesting to say the least.

Diomedes777 says

I just did a quick search for my area (I rent in Los Gatos). The median household income for this area (which is pretty affluent) is currently at around $120,000. The median home price however is at around $1,000,000. Nearly ten times actual median income.

To be fair, I don't think the median income includes proceeds from stock IPOs or people who banked a massive pay day from a startup. But nonetheless, interesting to say the least.

Hard to imagine this sustained long-term when mortgage-based financing dominates real estate. However, as long as people get rich quick on startups and don't need financing...

Diomedes777 says

To be fair, I don't think the median income includes proceeds from stock IPOs or people who banked a massive pay day from a startup. But nonetheless, interesting to say the least.

I've drawn similar conclusions looking at net worth numbers.

A lot of you guys don't seem to understand that Silicon Valley is not just startups. Even at a "regular" tech company you have RSOs, stock matching 401s and employee stock plans. Separate from my salary, I was averaging 10,000 shares a year at around 2.50 cost basis (for the stock plan--free in the 401) over 5 years. Stock hit $10 last year. That's half a million that I wasn't planning on.

Sold my condo last year. Bought it 3 years ago to avoid paying rent in SF for $580k. Sold at $850k and moved into my fiance's place.

There's no wrong or right answer. Just be smart for your financial circumstances.

JH says

However, as long as people get rich quick on startups and don't need financing...

Remember, these people don't have to be the bulk of the buyers. Only 5-10% would be enough to push prices up. That is to say, if the inventory is 30, only need 2 of such guys to pay top dollar to cause prices to appreciate. Soon, there would be 50 over $200 millions millionaire from Whatsapp in the market. What is the total inventory in the desirable neighborhood of SF & Fortress (e.g. Atherton, Menlo Park, Palo Altos, Los Altos, Cupertino)? There would be knock-on effect on neighboring cities too.

DukeLaw says

Sold my condo last year. Bought it 3 years ago to avoid paying rent in SF for $580k. Sold at $850k and moved into my fiance's place.

That's actually a time-of-life consideration that has benefited a couple of friends. One who sold a house in SF after his fiancé finished a PhD and got a job somewhere else. Good reason to move, timing worked and made a nice profit selling the house. Same with a friend who bought a place with a fiancé. Took a trip to Italy to see if marriage was really the next step, decided it wasn't and sold the place. Made money.
I looked at buying a place back in 2003. Would have almost certainly involved an ex. Pretty glad I didn't do it as the place doesn't look to have gotten much more valuable and I didn't have to deal with that on top of the other end of relationship trials.

DukeLaw says

I was averaging 10,000 shares a year at around 2.50 cost basis (for the stock plan--free in the 401) over 5 years. Stock hit $10 last year. That's half a million that I wasn't planning on.

I hope you're accounting for your money better than what you wrote suggests.

Diomedes777 says

I just did a quick search for my area (I rent in Los Gatos). The median household income for this area (which is pretty affluent) is currently at around $120,000. The median home price however is at around $1,000,000. Nearly ten times actual median income.

Yep, that's the norm - most people I know are leveraged close to 10x their annual income. If they are partnered, it reduces to 5-6 x combined annual income roughly, still too much.

DukeLaw says

A lot of you guys don't seem to understand that Silicon Valley is not just startups. Even at a "regular" tech company you have RSOs, stock matching 401s and employee stock plans. Separate from my salary, I was averaging 10,000 shares a year at around 2.50 cost basis (for the stock plan--free in the 401) over 5 years. Stock hit $10 last year. That's half a million that I wasn't planning on.

Yeah, but they are outnumbered by those who don't have that extra income and are leveraged 5-10x or more their annual salary. Plus, when market turns options will be mostly worthless for the newcomers (like they were after the dot com bust post-2000) and then they will not be able to afford those house prices.

DukeLaw says

Sold my condo last year. Bought it 3 years ago to avoid paying rent in SF for $580k. Sold at $850k and moved into my fiance's place.

That was probably smart, even if you didn't time the top exactly. I'd be a seller now.

mell says

Yep, that's the norm - most people I know are leveraged close to 10x their annual income. If they are partnered, it reduces to 5-6 x combined annual income roughly, still too much.

That most definitely is NOT the norm. Please tell me where you can get a loan for 10X income.

DukeLaw says

There's no wrong or right answer. Just be smart for your financial circumstances.

Give me a break and admit luck also.

I refuse to believe that more than 10% of people in the fortress are making half a million annually in stock options that are just an added "bonus" of living there. I refuse to believe that the majority of those who do will continue to do so for years to come.

However, I do find it hilarious that people who get boners on the "half million unplanned" are also paying multiple millions for shacks and traffic :-)