patrick.net

Student Loan Tuition Inflation Cost Scary

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Logan-Mohtashami-140221-Mortgage-Purchase-Applications.php

Quotes from National Association of REALTORS® chief economist Lawrence Yun at today's January existing home sales presser, after announcing sales down 5.1%mm to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million units:

"The decline [in sales] that occurred in January can partly be explained by weather, but given the West [sales down most--7.1%mm], one can assume that there are other factors."

"The lack of supply is greatly hindering buyer enthusiasm"

Supply was lower last year and market acted much better

"Affordability issues"

Main reason I see and if you follow or believe in market economics. Rates Rose, Purchase apps fell and then in a few months sales numbers got soft

"Tight credit"

Biggest cop out reason ever, there is No tight lending in America when all you need is 3.5% down 620 Fico ... &*() now 580-600 and DTI up to 43% with Non QM loans being given out still

"2014 is off to an unhappy beginning after a nice two years of recovery"

"The housing market is underperforming...well below 'normal' going back to 2000, when housing was boring and annual sales were 5.2 million"

Logan,

I wonder if have statistics for "all cash" purchases? my intention is to gauge investor interest in this market.

bubblesitter says

Logan,

I wonder if have statistics for "all cash" purchases? my intention is to gauge investor interest in this market.

Cash buyer stayed strong with the recent NAR report on a national level basis. In fact if it wasn't for the cash buyer at 33% this number would have been softer

I know here in So Cal we have gone from 33% to down to 26%. It's a reason why sales out West is falling fasting than everyone else

Call it Crazy says

That was actually in the link in my post above from the NAR release:

I know, but my problem is I won't trust NAR data.

Battle Ground article came last year between the NAR and I

May 7, 2013 Yun was boasting that demand is there and only held back by inventory and I counter that when Housing Inflation runs on both fronts ... that is the main item you should be worried

http://loganmohtashami.com/2013/05/07/housing-mammoth-stuck-in-tar-has-bigger-problems-to-worry-about/

Watching them back track on everything and now complain about affordability has been nice to see

However, their core thesis is still wrong. It's not tight lending it's the economy STUPID..

Something Mark Zandi still doesn't get

http://loganmohtashami.com/2014/01/27/mark-zandi-its-the-economy-stupid/

If you thought today's number was bad wait until next month, it's going to be worse

Median Incomes
Mortgage Purchase Apps
Existing Home Sales

real estate commissioned sales persons' best advice:
"I sure you will get this lovely home if you offer 50% over listing price but you need to make the offer,immediately."

It will be interesting to see the next pending sale number. December's numbers were very soft which leads to the next existing home sales number to be weak.