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Strategist
2014 Aug 4, 9:11am
Unless you tell me we'll wait for rates to go back to 8% which may be never, not pracitical. Notwitshanding all the associated factors that have transformative change beside interest rate flux.
They could one day easily surpass 6%.
Heraclitusstudent
2014 Aug 4, 9:26am
At the minimum low interest rate means low permanent cost of ownership
You clearly misunderstood the point. Low rates don't mean low cost of ownership: The cost of ownership doesn't change. It's the balance interest vs principal that changes.
The cost of ownership will be much less if interest rates are higher later and you have cash to buy.
please suggest when rates will go up
That's the $1m question, is it not?
Rates are almost guarantied to go higher over the next 20yrs.
Reasons for that:
- Demographic: boomers retirement, meaning less retirement money invested, worldwide.
- Huge increase of the money base will slowly flow into the economy.
- todays rates are low compared to historical averages.
- Inflation in developing countries
But when are they going to move? No one knows. Maybe slowly over 20yrs. Maybe in one big crisis.
tatupu70
2014 Aug 4, 9:33am
The cost of ownership will be much less if interest rates are higher later and you have cash to buy.
You're making a false assumption there that housing prices will go down if rates go up. Historically, that has not been the case.
Rates are almost guarantied to go higher over the next 20yrs.
Reasons for that:
- Demographic: boomers retirement, meaning less retirement money invested, worldwide.
- Huge increase of the money base will slowly flow into the economy.
- todays rates are low compared to historical averages.
- Inflation in developing countries
If rates go up because of inflationary pressures, housing will almost certainly rise as well.
SFace
2014 Aug 4, 9:44am
At the minimum low interest rate means low permanent cost of ownership
You clearly misunderstood the point. Low rates don't mean low cost of ownership: The cost of ownership doesn't change. It's the balance interest vs principal that changes.
The cost of ownership will be much less if interest rates are higher later and you have cash to buy.
Future interest rate is another input bias. What you pay to the bank is a fact. The lower the interest rate the less cash out for a permanent cost. Speculating on the future is unproductive. If the permanent cost are low and it is rent generating (either from yourself as a guaranteed tenant or someone else), it is an asset and will never be distressed.
Rates are almost guarantied to go higher over the next 20yrs.
Reasons for that:
We all know nothing is guaranteed. and besides, if interest rates rise, it is likely in response to inflation, in which case, you want inflation proof asset like housing.
Eman
2014 Aug 4, 9:48am
"We all know nothing is guaranteed."
Wrong. Death and taxes are guaranteed. :0))
"3.Because it's a terrible time to buy when interest rates are low, like now. House prices rose as interest rates fell, and house prices will fall if interest rates rise without a strong increase in jobs, because a fixed monthly payment covers a smaller mortgage at a higher interest rate. Since interest rates have nowhere to go but up, prices have nowhere to go but down. When housing falls, you lose your equity, but not your debt. "
Another item that sounds great in theory, but please suggest when rates will go up. rates can go down or up, if it was that easy, we can just put our life savings in Bonds and become investment god.
Unless you tell me we'll wait for rates to go back to 8% which may be never, not pracitical. Notwitshanding all the associated factors that have transformative change beside interest rate flux.
At the minimum low interest rate means low permanent cost of ownership, which has a real impact to cash flow. It is very easy to maintain an asset that have low fixed permanent cost. A lack of property for sale is a function and result of low interest rates.
#housing