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Is Soros prescient?


               
2014 Aug 15, 3:09am   895 views  3 comments

by indigenous   follow (1)  

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-15/soros-put-rises-record-billionaire-investor-betting-market-crash

Soros Fund Management, the investment vehicle of the famous Hungarian billionaire investor revealed in its Q4 13F that the firm had taken its bearish S&P 500 ETF - aka SPY - put exposure to a then record $1.3 billion notional, prompting us and many others to ask if Soros was preparing for a market crash.

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1   Peter P   2014 Aug 15, 6:18am  

The hallmark of a great trader is the prioritization of profit over opinion. A trade is not a conviction of truth. Soros is known to be "wrong" many times. Yet he possesses the epistemic humility to change his mind at the right time.

Sometimes a trade is put on simply because of its attractive risk/reward characteristics. Do not read too much into it.

2   Ceffer   2014 Aug 15, 9:16am  

Don't know, but he is definitely postmenopausal.

3   mell   2014 Aug 15, 9:29am  

I think he is hedging in case of a black swan, i.e. Ukraine or Ebola worst case scenarios. Without a true black swan I cannot see the market go down significantly right now. I am sparsely hedged as well, but the long positions outperform the short positions by far. As long as the tech trannies such as FB or TSLA make new highs it is hard to bet against this market. That doesn't mean that they are rationally valued of course, just look back 5 years.. ;) I think tech and real estate are the most overvalued sectors right now, but tech has the tranny momentum and real estate has ZIRP going for them.

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