patrick.net

Ha Ha says:
Can’t we survive by real estate jobs alone :-)

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I fear that all the fearmongering about outsourcing will prevent young talented people from learning about software development, making outsourcing a necessity and thus seal the fate of the U.S. as the place to create innovative products.

That's a good point. Presently, the trend is clear, but it is dependent on the availability of higher-value (equivalent production at lower cost) labor overseas. Probably, what will happen is that the markets will approach equilibrium... Pay will rise in India (this is already happening) and production will shift to other places (China, Russia). At some point, the talent pool will reach another mostly stable point, until the next batch of outsourcing locations come on line. This is the natural order of things. There will always be software developers in the USA, and there will always be a premium for local talent. But the numbers and the margins will get tighter.

I agree that software has proven extremely difficult to specify to the same precision as hardware. But look at the trends in software development, toward decoupling and multiple interfaces...it isn't a leap to imagine that components with clear APIs can be built elsewhere, with local (or imported from the USA) talent used for the interfaces.

But you were talking about internal development work, for which I agree, there will always be a need. So there will always be jobs. But now we will have to share with the rest of the world. Actually, a local internal development team might be considered a service. They aren't selling a product (internal designations of "product", "customer", etc are just convenient shorthand...there is almost never a market, so the concepts are meaningless).

There is no wealth in services. IP and creative capacity can disappear more quickly than factories can. We don't want a living standard normalized against the (ambitious) developing world.

quesera:

I think you are far too pessimistic about the future of development here in the US. A good local developer is worth the cost. Y2K gave outsourcing a good name, but the hardest part of software development is clear communication of requirements, and, as I understand it, most post-y2k outsourcing efforts are either failing outright, or turning out to save far less money than projected.

Not that I don't have fallback plans. Or that any imaginable outcome for my career short of an insane public offering would allow me to buy a decent home in the BA. Which is why I don't plan on being here much longer.

_smile_

Cheers,
prat

I just wonder why America is still the source of many innovations, even in its hard times (such as the 2001-2004 period, with Google), instead of China, Taiwan, or India. Our education system is terrible, with kids lacking interest in all subjects (but sports), and our technology system is still filled with people who can't distinguish a phone connector from a CAT-5 one. Yet, the computers, the Internet, the search engines, Windows (does this count?) are still originated by Americans, in various American companies. What makes our engineers different from the rest? Is it because the creativity? The effects of multiple personal freedoms on the minds? Or is it because McDonald's and Burger King's food additives help brain rewirings?

Maybe,when we can find out what makes us able to formulate new ideas and turn them into success, that is when we find the right stuff to put aside outsourcing for good.

To me, outsourcing is a fad. One company does it, and the others follow. While they can get rid of overpaid and under-educated staffers, companies soon realize complex projects still require on-site personel. If that is true, the answer to beat outsourcing is probably just keep learning and making yourselves recognized as irreplaceable. Be a clever acrobat with office politics.

Great idea! Check here for the whitepaper: http://tinyurl.com/aoehp

While some have argued that the fraction of income spent on mortgages must remain under
100%, not all economists agree. Dr. Hallucinatory R. Heartwarming (a mainstream economist)
defended the New Housing Economy:
“Using the most modern econometric techniques, we can project where the mortgage payments
of all home owner reach 100% of national wage income. Basically what we do is draw a graph
of the percentage over time, lay a ruler over it, and draw a straight line. We use the point in
time where the line crosses 100% as our forecast”, he stated.
Some have charged that this type of forecasting is devoid of any economic reasoning, and even
that it violates common sense. How, for example, could mortgage payments reach or exceed
100% of income?
Dr. Heartwarming responded to these charges, “Home owners can simply extract equity from
their home by refinancing and use the cash they take out to pay the difference between their
income and their mortgage.” Home owners extracted $491 billion of equity from their homes in
2002 according to the Wall Street Journal. “Home owners are already using home equity from
refinancing to meet ongoing monthly expenses”, he continued, “It is a small step forward to start
using these funds for the mortgage itself.”

Very funny paper indeed!

Yet, the computers, the Internet, the search engines, Windows (does this count?) are still originated by Americans, in various American companies. What makes our engineers different from the rest? Is it because the creativity? The effects of multiple personal freedoms on the minds? Or is it because McDonald’s and Burger King’s food additives help brain rewirings?

IMHO, it's a combination of culture of innovation, world class universities that attract the best and business people who are smart enough to finance developing that innovation into products, even if it may not pan out.
That's still unique in the world AFAIK, and it's hard to copy, even if there's the political will to do so.

In Europe (at least the countries I know), you have to prove to the bank clerk without doubt that your innovation is going to pan out, you won't get much money anyway, and you're personally liable for everything you borrow.
I grew up with stories about people whose businesses failed and who were now in the hock for the rest of their lives. No fostering of innovation and risktaking in _that_ culture, that's for sure.

Here's a good example of what Girgl was saying before.... If you use Netscape and you create an email account and want to use their email client, you can't.....It's bugged and has been for the last few revisions. I don't even have to verify it but, it is work that is outsourced and is not getting fixed. If you try to set it up you get the following messagebox:

"The registration server is not available at this time"

Will this ever be fixed? Probably not, at least not anytime soon......and if you search around, you can find that so many people have complained about it. If this work was done here, it would have been fixed ASAP because peoples jobs would be on the line.....but those who are doing the work overseas get much more slack. I have also tried to setup a Netscape email account for my sister through the Netscape email client...couldn't do it because the "state" listbox was made too small that when you clicked on it nothing happened, so after all the work filling out the form, I couldn't complete the application using the email client...however, on the website I was able to set it up.

These are just simple examples that everyone can see and if you look around the net, you can find plenty more. We have pretty good quality control here in america or at least we had. If there was something wrong, something wasn't working correctly, it would be fixed in minutes, or days....not years! Sure hope the firmware that goes into pacemakers doesn't get outsourced!

Goldeneye977,

Now that the housing market has clearly turned, do you still feel so confident? Sales in every bubble market (CA, FL, AZ, NV, OR, WA, MA, etc.) have fallen off a cliff, inventories are up --WAY up-- and same-house prices are falling nearly everywhere. Hell, even the usual perma-bulls/industry cheerleader types (NAR, Toll Brothers' CEO, WSJ) have gone on record and (reluctantly) admitted things are not doing well now.

Still bullish?

I thought not. :lol: