patrick.net

"I’ve found ways to get some of that info… "

Aside from having a relative in the business?

Aside from having a relative in the business?

Nope, haven't gone there yet; we may consult a friend when we do buy a new place.

There are a few sites that will show how many days on market, last sale price, and since many realtors are sloppy at updating data, tracking price reductions isn't too hard either. Perhaps these sites have been mentioned before, but when I have a moment I'll post the links.

ScottC, it is hard to believe someone who doesn't answer a simple question. What do you think of David Lereah?

From the article Now and Then

[snip]
Let's take a look at what David Lereah, chief economist for National Association of Realtors is saying now :

"It’s not too late to increase your stake in the greatest real estate boom of our generation. Whether you are a first-time buyer or already own your home, Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom? will show you how you can dramatically increase your overall wealth. Author David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, shows why the real estate market is poised to climb higher over the next decade—and explains what you can do to profit from it."

What do you think of this guy Scott? Save the speeches and just answer my simple question.

This is so true. I swear politicians must be taught this stuff in the crib to be so proficient at it.

Same goes for realtors.

In ancient Greece & Rome, sophistry was actually a respected art, taught at the finest learning institutions of the day. Though it's fallen somewhat out of public favor, it has never fallen out of use. Given human nature, and the never-ending struggle over power and scarce resources, I suspect it never will.

There are a few sites that will show how many days on market, last sale price, and since many realtors are sloppy at updating data, tracking price reductions isn’t too hard either. Perhaps these sites have been mentioned before, but when I have a moment I’ll post the links.

KurtS,

It would be very helpful to have these for future reference (aside from the typical Domania & Realtor.com). When you get the chance, please do so, thanks.

Speaking of honesty and business ethics...

Real Estate Articles from Inman News
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Is real estate fraud getting the greenlight?
Industry executives point to lenders' tolerance of fraud
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=48992

Speaking at a Texas Mortgage Bankers Association event in Dallas earlier this month, Morris complained that too many industry members tolerate fraud. "We are our own worst enemies, believe it or not," he said, demanding that "we can't have a tolerance for it, we just can't."

David Lereah is an economist. He analyzes market data and presents reports. He doesn’t sell real estate, so I don’t give his analysis any more credence than I would any other economist, which isn’t much.

Ok....maybe so after reading his biography, I just figured someone who is supposed to be an expert on RE would have started out selling RE.

Anyway.....

Have you read about Mugford deals

[snip]
Even though the vast majority of Ontario real estate agents are honest, other agents tempted to pull a "Mugford" scheme have now received a signal from RECO that if they are caught, they won't lose their licence.

David Lereah is an economist. He analyzes market data and presents reports. He doesn’t sell real estate, so I don’t give his analysis any more credence than I would any other economist, which isn’t much.

Ok….maybe so, I just figured someone who is supposed to be an expert on RE would have started out selling RE.

Anyway…..

Have you read about Mugford deals

[snip]
Even though the vast majority of Ontario real estate agents are honest, other agents tempted to pull a “Mugford” scheme have now received a signal from RECO that if they are caught, they won’t lose their licence.

Here’s a link to david Lereah’s biography. Interesting.

Yes...I sent that same link in a previous post, but it's caught in moderation purgatory.

Here is the link to Mugford deals since my previous post got corrupted.

If you let the threadmaster know a post is in moderation, they can take it out. Otherwise, we don’t know that something has ended up in moderation.

SQT aren't you a moderator? If so, I give you permission to take it out.

David Lereah doesn’t have a clue. NAR doesn’t have a clue. Tierre Grande doesn’t have a clue. You won’t find any information about this market in any state or national publication.

And yet this is where there is a whole lot of money to be made. This is the area that is the center of commerce between the US and Latin America. They are building a transcontinental superhighway from McAllen to Canada to facilitate the transport of goods and produce. It is not hyperbole to say that this area is perhaps the single best market to invest in in the entire United States. The potential profits to be realized here are exceeded only by Las Vegas.

Step right up folks! You won't find this info anywhere!

hmmmm.....Sounds like a promo for real estate in Texas. ScottC, you sound like you want all the speculators to come into your market!....kind of like a local David Lereah!

Now my posting of Lereah’s biography is redundant. Oh well.

Huh? Are you starting with my SQT? :)

I’m getting phone calls from people in California every week. Hell, I’m getting phone calls from people in Idaho and several other states. People who are getting out of overinflated bubble markets and investing where there’s money to be made.

At cursory glance, I see some conflict with one location being a "bubble market" and another "where there's money to be made".

I don't want to lump ScottC in with cheerleading realtors around my locale, but by now any informed buyer should question those who pull a host of buzzwords from their hat to support a continued runup in prices. I live on the SFBay, in one of the priciest, over-hyped economies (and housing markets) around. It's not like we haven't debunked this all before.

SQT, I thought what you meant by "take it out" meant delete it and that was what I expected you to do. If you want, you can delete it....I give you permission. :)

For a bit of unintended humor, check out this woman's approach to seller her home. Apparently, she's part of the deal:

http://tinyurl.com/852bn

Some choice quotes:
"There was only one problem…I had not met that special someone to share this house with"...
"You might be wondering why I have my listing at $600,000.00 plus myself for bid as “priceless”. First, I estimate the value of the house with furnishings at approximately $600,000.00. When I asked my girlfriends their advice on what I (the “bride”) was worth, most responded that I was “priceless”."

Perhaps she's priceless, but "Mr. Right" is required to fully subsidize her overpriced home and decorating expenses? LOL!

People come to this blog and write the most ridiculous things about real estate and hurl the most vicious insults at realtors

ScottC, you insist that we respect who you are, that you are somehow different from the realtors we bemoan, yet you abuse us and possibly our intelligence with such long-winded sermonizing, ad hominem, and pitches that already sound old and worn to my ears:

"Are you missing out on the real estate boom? You are if you’re not investing in the Central Rio Grande Valley.

Most likely you don’t have any money."

Seriously, if you "just gave [us] information [we] won’t find anywhere else," why should other investors, business care about it? This so-called "money nucleus" should be getting large amounts of media attention, shouldn't it? Sorry, I don't buy it.

Kurt says, "Sorry, I don’t buy it."

But he can't be lying; he's a real estate agent. They're required to take ethics exams.

First Agent : Did you pass your ethics exam?
Second Agent: I passed my ethics exam, but I cheated.

Do you want to invest in real estate? Where? I just gave you inside information on one of the hottest markets there is. I just gave you information you won’t find anywhere else. You won’t find out what I just told from the news media. You certainly won’t find it on any real estate blog. You won’t find it on any current report from NAR or BusinessWeek, for that matter. You won’t find it in Tierre Grande, the magazine of the most prestigious real estate school in the state. Because it’s not being reported.

Isn't this a real estate blog?

ScottC, we are not looking to make money in real estate...we are not flippers! We are people who just want to buy a decent house at a normal (real) price using normal financing.....So save the snake oil for the flippers, we aren't buying it!

ScottC

Which Mexican cities have the most factories from which the goods will come?

It seems that El Paso, Laredo and McAllen have good positions as trade gateways. Which one has the best roads leading north? It looks to me like 35 from Laredo through San Antonio is the best route at this time. And that the roads through Monterey are the best routes from inside Mexico. Is that the case? Which city is expected to have the best roads after the upgrades?

For those who haven't seen it, here's an excerpt from the PBS Lereah interview yesterday.

GWEN IFILL: For months, economists and homeowners have been on the hunt for any sign that the nation's robust housing boom may be going bust. This has week has brought mixed news.

The Commerce Department reported today sales of new homes rose a record 13 percent in October, but yesterday, the National Association of Realtors reported sales of previously owned homes fell by nearly 3 percent in the same period. What to make of all of this? For help, we turn to David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

We heard bad news this week. Let's run through that. We heard that luxury home forecasts are down. We heard that existing home sales have dropped off. We heard that the inventory of unsold homes has increased. And then we hear this news today. What are we to make of that?

DAVID LEREAH: Well, first, most of the news has been softening in the housing sector. It's beginning to slow down. The boom is -- has peaked and we're starting to see some slowing. The news we heard today were new home sales. They were contracts. It was based on a very small sample that the government conducts. And it's subject to very, very large revisions.

So any economist will tell you that the new home sales release is probably going to be revised downward next month. So I wouldn't put too much stock into that number right now.

GWEN IFILL: Why do we measure new home sales differently from existing home sales?

DAVID LEREAH: New home sales are contracts and existing home sales are the actual closings when you actually sign the papers and move into the house. We do have pending home sales on existing homes which are contracts. It may sound complicated but next week we will come out with those numbers. Those numbers, I suspect, are not going to be great numbers.

They're not going to be 13 percent soaring activity like new homes so I suspect the new home sales numbers will come down. I don't think it's reasonable right now.

------------

The rest can be found here:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/economy/july-dec05/housing_11-29.html

How much of the trade will originate in Mexican factories located near the border? Of these, how much is near McAllen vs Laredo vs El Paso?

Recent quote:

"Right now, the market is caught up in the psychology of a bubble. You see the fastest increases just before the collapse. If you look at the past, the Nasdaq crossed 4,000 around the new year in 2000, and then two months later, it had already crossed 5,000. Suddenly in mid-March, the Nasdaq plunged 15%, and it was downhill from there." - Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic & Policy Research.

New home sales are based on survey data. The margin for error is high. The data is not reliable in any one month. Next month will probably be lower then usual.

Builders are more likely to be realistic about reducing their prices (or offering more for the same price) than are the sellers of existing homes.
So we could see a market where new home sales volume will hold up better than existing home sales for a while.

Frank, Dean Baker? Get real... You would go broke following his advice. He has been extremely wrong for years.

Was it really skinned, or just a chihuahua?

Frank, Dean Baker? Get real… You would go broke following his advice. He has been extremely wrong for years.

Dean Baker is not wrong.....He can only make guesses as to when the bubble bursts (already has). No one can predict exactly when a bubble will burst, if they could, they'd be the richest SOB in the country!

Market turns are inevitable. When making predictions about market turns it is the timing that matters. A prediction with bad timing is worse than no prediction at all. Dean Baker has been terribly wrong on the timing of the real estate market for several years. It's hard to be that wrong.

Mr. UP, Dean Baker was right there with him. Telling people to get out, right before the strongest up market in history.

If you want to make money read Dean Baker's advice, and then do the opposite.

Here is a good prediction by Dean Baker standards: "It will rain heavily next week."

When it fails to rain... "oh well, my timing is off a little, but it will rain NEXT week."

When it again fails to rain heavily... "Oh this can't go on forever, it will rain heavily next week..."

And so it goes until finally the inevitable does occur. So, eventually it will rain heavily and the prediction is declared accurate! He was just early.

Allah, Guessing is not predicting.

Allah you said: "No one can predict exactly when a bubble will burst, if they could, they’d be the richest SOB in the country!"

I agree. However, while nobody can predict the exact moment accurately and consistently, many people come close on a regular basis.

Remember when all those people were buying into the tech stock bubble... buying at the top? Someone was selling stock to those buyers in equal quantities. For every loser fool there is a smart winner.

It has been said that if you took all the money in the world and distributed it evenly among all the people, before long the same people would have most of the money again.

Mr.UP, I agree with you about sounding right vs. being right. It does me little good to sound right. I make my money by being right. For three decades I have had the good fortune to be either very right or very lucky (or both).

There is always luck. In order to reduce the adverse luck factor I put a lot of effort into knowing as much as possible about the things that affect my investments. That way the luck mostly goes my way.

...and then you must have the discipline to follow a plan, and the guts to act on your beliefs.

I have also started a few businesses -- always for large corporations or investors. I once raised $100 million from VCs (they are bastards) to start a financial services company. While I do not work in real estate, it is more than a hobby. It has been the cornerstone of my investment portfolio for three decades. Although, I have actually invested more money into stocks, and into bonds but ended up with more money in real estate than both combined due to superior returns (on a leveraged basis).

Zephyr,

Ask any economist why his prediction didn't pan out, and he will probably say “trends changed”. This is why an economist’s qualitative predictions can never be precisely on target. Economists work within a framework of assumptions and when many of those assumptions turn out to be wrong, their predictions suffer. Inflationary bubbles are notoriously difficult to predict because bubble psychology causes illogical behavior in market participants. In trying to predict the end of the current housing bubble, assumptions have been incorrectly applied by many a good economist. Baker therefore is in good company. I value Baker (or anyone else for that matter) as an economist not for his predictions, but for his interpretation of available information in light of his assumptions. Looking at a macro economic prediction solely in a right or wrong, black or white manner is for gamblers – not people who desire an understanding of what is really going on.

Mr.UP, Nice chart. When you factor in rents and dividents the gap narrows. I once asked Jeremy Siegel (Economist and author of Stocks for the Long Run) how the total returns compared for stocks vs Real estate and he said roughly one percent over the long run.