patrick.net

tatupu70 says

We're not exactly talking about the theory of relativity here. Anyone with half a brain can understand how the housing market works.

Good point, I see what the problem is now...

tatupu70 says

Will you seriously stop with nonsense about not having housing experience?

I am trying to give you guys some cover here, because what you're saying is that you want to deviate from not only American economic history but from actual private experience home builder history.

Both yourself and Herc are trying to deviate form the history of economics now. This shows a lack of housing experience which clearly is shown here so I am trying to give you two some cover

Causation
Correlation
Representation

50 year average of total housing 1.5 million

Economics is equilibrium to each cycle

Just look at when 2 million plus starts happens, there is a down draft right after going back to 1959. History of American economics and housing starts.

Again, math, facts and data. I know you don't like these charts but I am staying true to the history of economics and you're presenting a false narrative of some thesis that can't exist

If you had any private housing experience you would exactly know what I am talking about. Look at the last 2 million plus starts print and the collapse of what happened.

These people don't work for free? Housing isn't a cheap business either, there are many variables into building homes for each economic cycle.
They have business models and housing economic models as well.

I understand this might be a foreign concept because this isn't what you do for a living but look at the history of economics as a template

Logan Mohtashami says

I am trying to give you guys some cover here, because what you're saying is that you want to deviate from not only American economic history but from actual private experience home builder history.

Both yourself and Herc are trying to deviate form the history of economics now. This shows a lack of housing experience which clearly is shown here so I am trying to give you two some cover

Causation

Correlation

Representation

50 year average of total housing 1.5 million

OK great--50 year average is 1.5 million. Would you agree that household size has been shrinking over the last 50 years? Perhaps the number of housing starts needed now is not the same as 1960? And your own graph show housing starts well below 1.5MM for several years. I'm not sure what exactly your argument is at this point?

I love charts. I love data. I love facts. But I don't like it when you don't understand what the facts, data, and charts actually mean. You lack critical thinking skills.

tatupu70 says

I'm not sure what exactly your argument is at this point?

Right there..... you see....

You don't see the point. You believe in something that can't nor has it ever been proven to exist in the reality of American economics.
Even with the data line right there for you to see

Builders don't agree with you
Federal and State government doesn't agree with you

So the private and public sector don't agree with your thesis.

You believe they are wrong. Then write to the home builders, write to President Obama your state congressmen to expand some type of home building program and let me know what they say.

When all the data doesn't agree with you, just maybe your thesis has a flaw.

You two gentlemen seem like good men but what you're asking me to do is deviate form the laws of economics and mathematics which means creating an economic theory assumption that doesn't have any timeline of history of being true as the data has shown for years. This is something I can't do, I am sorry