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Macro Digest: Q1 was no blip the US economy is going south
2015 Apr 15, 5:07am 1,198 views 6 comments
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1
control point
2015 Apr 15, 6:09am
Remember when you said this last year? And the year before?
That was awesome.
2
indigenous
2015 Apr 15, 6:21am
indigenous
2015 Apr 15, 6:21am
Remember when you said this last year? And the year before?
That was awesome.
Refresh my memory
6
control point
2015 Apr 15, 7:35am
You would say that last year was terrific?
Nice strawman. The discussion then, and the implication here, is the US was\is headed for economic contraction.
You predicted contraction last year. Wrong. You predict contraction soon. You may or may not be right, but constantly predicting something that is inevitable to happen someday does not validate you or your idealogies. A broken clock is right twice a day, every day.
Don't blame it on the weather
US growth will hit zero QoQ by year end
Sell your stocks and take six months off
By Steen Jakobsen
Here's four interesting charts to peruse as the market continues to kid itself that the US economy's Q1 performance was a mere weather-related blip (ignoring the fact that the hard winter only hit the US East Coast which is roughly 20% of the entire country's US economy!)
This is NACM credit extended from National Association of Credit Management – I have taken data annualised change and made it lead by six month (average credit to impact lead-lag) – and then plotted it vs. 10-year generic yield.
Source for data: http://web.nacm.org/CMI/PDF/CMIcurrent.pdf
I ran my St. Louis Fed charts and found this "new break of trend†surprising…
Atlanta Fed GDPnow ("real time†GDP tracker) is going from bad to worse…..
Old one but… Albert's chart is still valid – there is a connection between the economy and profit despite denial from Wall Street…
Strategy:
My own advice, as quoted by Bloomberg:
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