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Housing - I was wrong, and I am sorry.


               
2015 Jun 27, 2:18pm   13,805 views  15 comments

by JasonM   follow (0)  

Thanks to everyone who responded to my previous thread. Some of the stuff you posted caused me to think and I am still processing it. The nice thing about being here is I dont carry any baggage or ego associated with my old blog. I was so wrapped up in my old bearish handle, my ego would never allow me to admit I was wrong.

So maybe now is time to take stock in all the shit that caused my housing decisions to screw me. On the off chance there is any sort of karmic justice out there, maybe I need to confess my sins and repent for being a real dipshit, and things will work out for me. Here is what I can think of off the top of my head:

I would rail and lash out on blogs because housing cost too much and it frustrated me and made me angry.
I made my housing decisions not based on logic, but emotion.
I presented my opinion as fact.
I dismissed supply and demand and relied on bearish rules "proving" that prices would crash.
I believed in the “shadow inventory” (what a bunch of bullshit that was).
I listened to Denninger.
I read Zero Hedge.
I posted shit that even I didn't think would happen.
I refused to listen to anyone who said prices could rise.
I continued to spout off about how prices would crash, even when I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about. At the time, I will admit it made me feel good. It satisfied this need to take a shit on housing when I knew I couldn't have it.

In the long run, this did nothing for me, and that sort of mindset really fucked me in the long term. For the past 2-3 years, I had a sneaking suspicion the bottom was in, but I ignored it, downplayed it, dismissed it, and now suffer because of it. For all these things and more, I was wrong, and I am sorry.

#housing

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1   HEY YOU   @   2015 Jun 27, 7:40pm  

JasonM says: "... housing cost too much..."

It's not the cost. The problem is that idiots pay too much. This is why prices rise.

Agents,sellers,banks want full price. Who represents the buyer's interest since he is not stupid,merely foolish?

Overpaying for anything is brilliant,personal financial theology,because The American Dream.

2   Strategist   @   2015 Jun 27, 9:36pm  

jazz music says

What do you mean "permabulls start to dominate" .. how can they do anything since they refuse to buy???

I get that the top is coming, but how does anything permabulls do set up the next top? --they've been standing on the sidelines while Chinese buy and fund managers form REITs.

The Chinese and fund managers are bulls. You think it's the housing bears that buy homes?
Folks, this is what you get when you learn Econ 101 from Fidel Castro.

3   David9   @   2015 Jun 28, 12:00am  

I do not know you, but I actually thought about your previous thread.

Why is this guy being so hard on himself? I thought.

As I have said several times on this board; Yes, I was wrong about the housing market, prices going up, all of it.

However, I still do not redact any of my statements. Certainly not going into detail, that is what I thought at the time.
I made a financial miscalculation (Nothing was lost) and lost out on a potential hundred grand.

Also, I have more of 'bear' tendencies. That is simply a part of who I am.

Additionally, I gained something. If I ever do buy property again in California,
I will just accept the risk and the price within budget, that the value can fluctuate some.

4   Ceffer   @   2015 Jun 28, 12:35am  

You can't think the economy into doing what you want, it doesn't cooperate.

You can't predict the future, and anybody who says they can, is a con artist. If you think you can predict the future, you are conning yourself.

You shouldn't buy a home because you want to speculate on it's value. You should buy a home in your prudent price range because you want to own a home, will feel good about owning it, want to live in it and plan to stay in it for at least seven years. If you can afford the payments, market cycles should be irrelevant.

If you thought you could time markets, then you are a speculator and got burned. Welcome to the wonderful world of speculative investing. Getting burned is what happens to a lot of speculators, so boo hoo hoo.

Don't gamble if you are not prepared for losses.

A lost opportunity is not a loss, it is a fantasy of entitlement based on the past, which is unchangeable. Get back into the real world instead of feeling sorry for yourself over something you can't change.

5   HEY YOU   @   2015 Jun 28, 8:15am  

BAO says:"Affordability (which means I always bought way below what I qualified for) prudent pricing, decent location, something I could maintain myself with little outside help and the freedom more or less to do with it as I pleased. Staying well under what I "qualified for" allowed me to have a life outside of the physical structure I lived in."
WTF!

True Americans buy more shit than they need & overpay for it. You need to get with the program.lol

I will go to garage sales for entertainment. I've been counting all coffee mugs. When I see three more the count will be one trillion & one. I haven't had time to count all the other duplicate crap.

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