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Logan Mohtashami says

FED And The First Rate Hike

"It's coming it's coming" "Oh my God"
Worst kept secret on the planet. I won't be surprised if the stocks take a big jump the moment the rate increase is announced.

I like the graphic. Don't know your audience, but from my perspective, it would be an improvement to come out and say what you think they ought to be doing more clearly.

A long term plot with core inflation rate, unemployment, and FFR would be a useful plot as well to see how the FED has responded to inflation and unemployment in the past.

Strategist says

"It's coming it's coming" "Oh my God"

Worst kept secret on the planet. I won't be surprised if the stocks take a big jump the moment the rate increase is announced.

You would be surprised on how many people still don't believe they will hike due to the $ strength and weakness around the world

Strategist says

it would be an improvement to come out and say what you think they ought to be doing more clearly.

"– Another view I’ve held for years is that they should raise their inflation metric 2.25%-2.50% on CPI."

I would have been fine with the first rate hike if we saw CPI at those levels above. So, since it's not there, I can't approve 100% the rate hike. However,
I do understand their position

FED hasn't fought inflation since the early 1980's it's been a downward trend on rates for 34 years.
Now we have pocket inflation for sure, Home prices, Medical cost, Student Loans tuition

Strategist says

"It's coming it's coming" "Oh my God"

Worst kept secret on the planet. I won't be surprised if the stocks take a big jump the moment the rate increase is announced.

Still so many people believe they won't hike

The only thing I can think of that they won't hike rates is this

New Home Sales have had 3 months of negative revisions and a bad print in the last report

If we get a another bad print with a 4 month revision lower.

A. This would mean the 3rd year a row new home sales missed expectation and by a lot as well

B. That the move from 3.625% to 4.125% impacted the demand curve as purchase apps for new homes are coming in lower than expected now

However, I still don't think a 4 negative trend from new home sales would change their mind from #ZIRP

It's is supposed to be a modest increase, isn't it? And now China devalues its currency, and the dollar is stronger.

Blurtman says

It's is supposed to be a modest increase, isn't it? And now China devalues its currency, and the dollar is stronger.

If this economic cycle was slow and steady

The Rate Hike Cycle will be ever more slower than that.

Once the rate cycle starts, their is going to be an brand new ball game if the Fed did the right thing, should they stop, should they cut.

That will be the next phase of all this

Logan Mohtashami says

You would be surprised on how many people still don't believe they will hike due to the $ strength and weakness around the world

There's a (smaller) chance they won't hike it if the market breaks down before.

mell says

There's a (smaller) chance they won't hike it if the market breaks down before

We haven't had a real correction since 2011, so they haven't had to even think about that for a while. It will be interesting to see what would happen
with a serious correction with some duration time frame.

As for now a lot V shape Dip buying

I don't think it will be a blow out negative print on New Home Sales in the next report. However, the revision trend have taking a bit out of stronger start to 2015 which was sill below the sale expectation trends