patrick.net

Logan - do you have an overlay of the LEI graph against the S&P? I basically want to know if it's possible to see a downtrend in LEI before the stock market tanks?

Logan Mohtashami says

Logan - do you have an overlay of the LEI graph against the S&P? Best I can do for now

At this point, it's clear that profit margins have peaked, X energy S&P earning are up 7% I believe, so it depends on your view if you think earnings can still grow enough before the recession hits

Logan Mohtashami says

At this point, it's clear that profit margins have peaked, X energy S&P earning are up 7% I believe, so it depends on your view if you think earnings can still grow enough before the recession hits

It appears as such. Thanks for posting

This is a nasty commodity crash, but unlike other countries it's not that big of a factor for the U.S.

Then again it's all about timing, Russia's stock market for whatever it's worth is up big this year even though they're in a deep recession

That unemployment and S&P overlay graph sure makes Obama look like the new Reagan.

YesYNot says

That unemployment and S&P overlay graph sure makes Obama look like the new Reagan.

Thank the Fed.

"Thank the Fed."
Just as Republican & Democratic voters intended in their stupidity.

Logan Mohtashami says

Then again it's all about timing, Russia's stock market for whatever it's worth is up big this year even though they're in a deep recession

Huge burst of Agra and Grocery activity in Russia thanks to sanctions, the kick in the ass Russia needed to reform it's Food System from top to bottom.

Tremendously undervalued. If Gas Prices go up.... RSX is going over $20.

YesYNot says

That unemployment and S&P overlay graph sure makes Obama look like the new Reagan.

I am not a big believer in Presidents and Economic cycles due to the structure of their power and economics

However, here is more data on that

thunderlips11 says

Huge burst of Agra and Grocery activity in Russia thanks to sanctions,

Ruble getting whacked due to oil

Russia like a lot countries have bad demographics going ahead, it's going to be a rough road for them the next 3 decades

2016: It becomes legal for Realtor's and Mortgage Brokers to marry, provided they do not breed.

jvolstad says

2016: It becomes legal for Realtor's and Mortgage Brokers to marry, provided they do not breed.

conflict of interest ... stay away from that marriage

On a positive note birth rates are finally positive again, that's good for us!

Anything is possible next year.

Either the establishment will self correct what has been intentionally broken, so that the Libtards can say "See it only took 8 Years but Obama's policies saved our bacon from Bush".
Or they'll double down, on the same ole same ole, while blaming trump for those kind of policies. I had a friend tell me the other night Trump was bad and belonged in Jail because he used the system and bankrupted out of failed businesses. He was saying this with conviction, convinced that he was breaking some law, real or otherwise. I told him that's like calling me a criminal for filing my taxes last year.
The last time he was here, he was saying Trump was a racist. He gets his gut feeling about Trump based on what ever propaganda CNN is spreading that moment.

Don't forget the Libs haven't gotten to the OWS assets Hillary has them on tap for after the primaries. They'll be out parading and spreading the down with the 1% mantra right out in front of Trump Tower.

One thing for sure, we wont have free markets. In anything.

A lot of pending home sales weakness isn't related to TRID, but the closing on some deals will be pushed onto the next month numbers, so I wouldn't read too much into the existing home sales miss last month

Tenpoundbass says

can say "See it only took 8 Years but Obama's policies saved our bacon from Bush".

Or they'll double down, on the same ole same ole, while blaming trump for those kind of policies.

Weren't you blaming Obonzo for Bush's TARP/Fed/bank bailouts? Weren't you blaming Clinton for Bush's econo-bomb in 2007? You swing your blame stick as far and narrow according to your platitudes as much as any libfuck does. I'm kinda tired of blaming presidents. It's time to blame ourselves for a change. Trump isn't going to change any of it. And Hillary sure as hell isn't, either. We're royally doomed if we don't storm the castle.

Another thing to watch in 2016

2's vs 10's

Something I talked about in my 2015 Housing Predictions, but the battle over short and long isn't over, it's just starting

As always be mindful of demographic economics these days, it's not as damaging to the U.S. and U.K. as it is to other countries, but a story line for 2016

hope says

LEI graph against the S&P?

LEI is still holding it's own with claims, but if it wasn't with how the S&P has looked since April of 2015, it could be more alarming. However, we don't have any real hard core economic data being bad outside of mining & manufacturing.

Typically in the last 50 years when industrial production falls 1% year over year it means a recession but this cycle it's different due to the weakness over seas and the super cycle being a dud