patrick.net

George Pearkes ‏@georgepearkes My end of day wrap-up today. "Housing Supply Still Weak"
https://www.bespokepremium.com/the-closer/the-closer-32316-housing-supply-still-weak/ …

(Another text book chart to show that the low inventory to sales thesis isn't correct )

new homes are a luxury item. latest and greatest style, what you see on tv with fixer upper and all that bullshit.

KBH, it wasn't that great of a report ... but as you can see a trade can be done at any point of a cycle, $10 to $14 was the run, I wouldn't be pushing it here

Logan Mohtashami says

KBH, it wasn't that great of a report ... but as you can see a trade can be done at any point of a cycle, $10 to $14 was the run, I wouldn't be pushing it here

You ain't seen nuttin yet. Just wait till the middle of summer.

Strategist says

You ain't seen nuttin yet. Just wait till the middle of summer.

That's the problem, flattish growth for the rest of the year, sales are up only 4% year over year even with their horrible misses from last year

This is value play here, the stock from 2013 has been horrible, bastard builder child but then again that's why it was trading with a low liquidation value at $10

In any case, this is the worst one on the crop

But to your point

You have 4 months to show headline growth on the new home sales report as for now we down negative growth year over year .... No revision negative, if that doesn't happen

There is a change we get flat to negative growth this year in total new home sales.

I am still looking for 4%-8% growth with some upside if median home price falls since we are working only from a 500K level, but man... have to have to sales come through in the next 4 months