patrick.net

Of course there are a myriad of factors, but I'm convinced, because of the predictable behavior of both parties over the past 20 years, that surges of needy immigrants into the United States will help trigger a real estate crash. It is because the allegiance of the powers-that-be are divided between the rich and poor.

While the Central Banks will toil endlessly to maintain the status quo of wealth trapped in over-leveraged real estate, the 'elected' US government, regardless of party, will maneuver legislation to encourage lending for the purposes of providing lower cost housing, reasonable rents, and affordable mortgages to the swelling rolls of lower class residents. Watch closely as lending requirements are lowered and lowered and lowered. Eventually some punctuation event (which precise nature is unknowable) will trigger rapid instability in derivatives.

Take from the Rich, give to the government, make the poor subservient to the government, keep the incentives to both the rich AND poor flowing, so that neither group picks up the pitch forks.

And in my opinion, the real estate market has yet to crash. Look back to 1997 for valuation stability.