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The U.S. Economy Is About To Crash


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2016 Apr 1, 6:56am   25,225 views  82 comments

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54   _   2016 Apr 13, 7:03pm  

Strategist says

$995,000. Take it or leave it young man.

You were busy in 2010

55   Strategist   2016 Apr 13, 7:07pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

$995,000. Take it or leave it young man.

You were busy in 2010

I purchased rentals close to me in Ladera Ranch spring 2012, and a bunch of land in Feb 2013. I did nothing in 2010.
Trust me, Ladera Ranch will beat the rest of OC in appreciation.

56   Strategist   2016 Apr 13, 7:08pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Speaking of which I have $1,895,000 home for you, not far from where you live, old man!

57   _   2016 Apr 13, 7:10pm  

Strategist says

Ladera Ranch

That area had the highest deliquesces, but smoke em you got them.

My rental is in Trabuco Canyon

58   Strategist   2016 Apr 13, 7:16pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Ladera Ranch

That area had the highest deliquesces, but smoke em you got them.

My rental is in Trabuco Canyon

The whole place was built during the bubble era. When the crash took place, everyone walked away making the place a super bargain. In 2012 90% of the homes were short sales. Today, almost nothing is a short sale.
Trabuco Canyon has good potential too, along with RSM.

59   _   2016 Apr 13, 7:24pm  

Strategist says

Ladera Ranch

A lot Option Arms in that neighborhood .... during the bubble years.

They're building in Trabuco Canyon near my rental, 1 bedroom 1 Bath Condo 280k Rent $1,400

60   Strategist   2016 Apr 13, 7:28pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

They're building in Trabuco Canyon near my rental, 1 bedroom 1 Bath Condo 280k Rent $1,400

A few more of those, and you are set.

61   _   2016 Apr 16, 12:24pm  

Strategist says

A few more of those, and you are set.

Maybe in 4 -6 years

62   Strategist   2016 Apr 16, 3:36pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

A few more of those, and you are set.

Maybe in 4 -6 years

You'll be late to the party.

63   _   2016 Apr 16, 3:38pm  

Strategist says

You'll be late to the party.

64   _   2016 Apr 20, 2:27pm  

65   _   2016 Apr 20, 5:48pm  

beershrine says

I see you have been studying those really scary economic charts from Mish.

The best response to this article today

66   _   2016 Apr 20, 5:51pm  

2009-2016... has been the single worst periods for the Perma Bear group and the cycle duration outlasted their fraud economic theories

It has been so much fun this year... tearing up their none sense

People forget that this is #America not some sissy crying begging country debasing it's currency for hope of an exporting bailout of their economy...

:-)

67   beershrine   2016 Apr 20, 6:05pm  

Logan, I can't believe your new forecast. All your your charts show zero trouble for the economy other than home prices.

68   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Apr 20, 6:13pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Bears have been wrong about America for 226 years and you guys had your best shot to try to convince people that America is a failure

You're not talking to me, I hope. America was the Greatest 1930-1980, when we experienced the greatest increase in power, standard of living, and technology ever seen on the face of planet earth.

Using temporary demographics-driven (all the boomers turning 20-30 in the 70s) inflation as an excuse, the laissez faire schmucks came out and to get an extra 1-2% return a year, started gutting the country.

There were no power outages in California until the Energy Industry was Deregulated. There had been no massive financial crisis with banking since the 1930s, until the repeal of Glass-Steagle.

We know what works - everybody profits under the new deal. But some would prefer for 45% of the population to suck it, just so they can be a little more rich than they already are.

People would piss their pants to have the kind of real growth among all segments of society that we had 1936-1980. Neoliberalism's record is a pale shadow in comparison. Any red herrings "Oh we already achieved maximum consumer growth" are simple unverifiable assertions and excuses.

69   _   2016 Apr 20, 6:14pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Logan, I can't believe your new forecast. All your your charts show zero trouble for the economy other than home prices.

Since inventory fell below 6 months which happened in 2012

2013
2014
2015
2016

Yearly Housing Predictions articles have all had price gains, because it's been the same thesis always

2016 inventory levels are still low enough for price gains, the median price cool down in 2015 for new home prices had more to do with a make shift of sales prices on lower end lows, which isn't a bad thing... actually it was a thesis of mine for more sales if that did happen.

Economics though....

Claims, JOLTS, LEI, these things have had a economic equilibrium factor for decades, so the recession calls were always silly, but 2016 was the epic year, the destined cycle is too old we have to have a recession by now time warp thesis that the economy is always on the verge of the 2nd great recession

It was just nonsense..

We are at 43 year lows on claims

and 16 year highs on Job openings with 5.4 million plus

Bill Mcbride at Calculated Risk and Myself like to poke fun of the yellow journalism Zero Hedge crowd so my snickered at this article because it's very popular only due to headline ....

The emails I got back after my bearish friends read this... #Classic

The extreme left and right have gone hay wire crazy with their economic theories on the U.S. economy...

All based on a lack of understanding on demographic economics

70   _   2016 Apr 20, 6:19pm  

thunderlips11 says

You're not talking to me, I hope. America was the Greatest 1930-1980, when we experienced the greatest increase in power, standard of living, and technology ever seen on the face of planet earth.

The world changed... the economy changed... We went from 2 trillion to 18 trillion, no way on planet earth we could have managed a manufacturing high inflation economy with the globalization of the world

Here is my biggest problem with left wing economic thinkers, you loved the economy when it was small and yet you don't see the fruits of expansion labor due to a service sector economy.

China is desperate trying to get to where we are and they're having a rough time with their state capitalism

Nobody does it better than we do... if they did... Americans would have left a long time .... but everyone stays and everyone wants to come here

China
Russia
Europe
Canada
South America

...... None of them come close to us! and now we are about to press our demographic muscles... so we will have a recession for sure at some point but the crash thesis the end of America....

We don't beg... that's not an American thing...

71   anonymous   2016 Apr 20, 8:34pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

China

Russia

Europe

Canada

South America

...... None of them come close to us!

I am not sure about that - if you look at standard of living in germany for example, if you actually follow a 35 year old who works a good job and compare their live with anyone in the US you will find - 6 weeks of vacation, healthcare that's affordable or already paid for with your tax, overall a completely different lifestyle that is more based on where to travel next then when to loose your job. We work our asses off in this country. Americans travel 1 week max. That's not even a vacation in a european sense. That's a weekend.

72   _   2016 Apr 20, 8:51pm  

SubOink says

if you actually follow a 35 year old who works a good job and compare their live

Germany is a old country, they have done great controlling Euro and all the little puppets of Euro zone....who despises the German power control

How beautiful was it that Thatchers warned them all want Germany would do before the Euro and Greece and others would never leave due to the fear
of Inflation.

Germany has done well controlling the smaller weaker European countries

But ... they're old, hence why they're desperate trying to capture as many Syrians as they can because they need young workers ..... 500K a year until 2050 just to keep pace...

Europe is old.... 20 years have soft growth and now... now they face their demographic problem

73   _   2016 Apr 21, 6:22am  

I am sorry, I know promised not to add any more unemployment claim charts on this pages, but we just broke a under 250K print ... even with the oil crash, even with the world slowing down...

2016 The 2nd Great Recession Year is now showing historical lows in unemployment claims in a time where the world is slowing down.

#USA

74   _   2016 Apr 21, 8:50am  

USA!

75   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Apr 21, 9:59am  

Logan Mohtashami says

The world changed... the economy changed... We went from 2 trillion to 18 trillion, no way on planet earth we could have managed a manufacturing high inflation economy with the globalization of the world

Nope - you mean, Wall Street and DC aggressively lobbied to change the rules governing world trade. It didn't "Just Happen", it was facilitated. GATT/WTO/TPP/NAFTA etc. are all DC-Wall Street treaties backed by billions given to think tanks, lobbyists, lawyers, etc.

Germany is doing just fine, it was bringing in foreign workers as early as the 1950s because of massive production growth, so the "Asia and Europe recovered from WW2 in the 70s" excuse is bogus..

Big Business and especially finance had been champing at the bit to find an excuse to overturn the New Deal; the 70s 100%-demographic demand-driven inflation gave them their excuse. Instead of advancing low-interest loans to modernize factories, they decided to create an easy credit and deregulated banking system instead.

Neoliberalism's record compared to the New Deal Era Sucks Balls, and all neoliberals have is excuses as to why: "Lazy", "Wrong Skills", "If we didn't impose neoliberalism it would be worse (where is the scanner into the parallel reality to prove that?)" etc.

76   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Apr 21, 10:06am  

We should also discuss sky high private debt, which is now a thing in lieu of good wages.

We'll learn our lesson again though, it's not quite a circle but a spiral, it usually gets a little better every time around.

77   _   2016 Apr 21, 12:09pm  

thunderlips11 says

sky high private debt

Lets talk about that

Debt service ratios are very low

Shocking how educated liberals who cry about America everyday are also paying their bills on time

78   _   2016 Apr 21, 12:13pm  

thunderlips11 says

Nope - you mean, Wall Street and DC aggressively lobbied to change the rules governing world trade. It didn't "Just Happen", it was facilitated. GATT/WTO/TPP/NAFTA etc. are all DC-Wall Street treaties backed by billions given to think tanks, lobbyists, lawyers, etc.

So basically lets make America great again by trying to compete against the world by charging higher prices and paying people who do these jobs high wages to go against a declining profit margin apparel sector

Yup that sounds like a solid game plan

Thankfully everyone got the memo and poverty around the world collapse

Sucking out of the air of liberals claiming to care about the poor and not ever mentioning that globalization destroyed poverty around the world

79   _   2016 Apr 21, 12:39pm  

Strategist says

Strategist says

UNXL at $3 I am buying Dinner

80   ja   2016 Apr 21, 2:52pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Very last thing I am worried about are the educated middle class in this country

Can you adjust for price increases of healthcare and education?

81   _   2016 Apr 21, 2:57pm  

ja says

Can you adjust for price increases of healthcare and education?

82   HEY YOU   2016 Apr 21, 4:09pm  

Been there,wathcing that. What's this "About To" talk.

Many Americans beat others to the scene of the crash.

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