patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

You're comparing countries that have low Per Capita Income to the United States of America, it's a silly thesis

Norway doesn't have a high per capita income?

Egypt and Bangladesh should be flooded with industries taking advantage of all that young, energetic labor!

thunderlips11 says

lack of wages tracking with productivity gains

I never understood why Liberals think wages would match productivity from 1970 when Globalization came and destroyed poverty and we created a massive service sector that gave everyone jobs as compared to a hard export economy that would have been a disaster for America

Working from a low population base into a mass expansion of working population

Chinese got the memo and are desperately trying to switch their economy,

thunderlips11 says

Norway doesn't have a high per capita income?

Your first 2 countries, not Norway or Denmark, they found a oil boom and have a relative small population

Declining population means higher wages and cheaper rents for the young! Some things must get done, can't be substituted or automated as the supply of labor dwindles. The less people, even if the housing stock completely stops expanding, landlords will have to offer bigger space and/or cheaper rents to fight vacancies.

It's also fantastic for the planet, for education, people and esp. children become more important, etc.

In societies with too many young people, life becomes cheap, pollution gets worse, education sucks.

It's why neoliberals are desperately open border, even though all but the dimmest must feel the pushback. Can't let their landlord and low wage service donors feel the pinch!

Logan Mohtashami says

The higher end is entry level in California. LOL.

Strategist says

The higher end is entry level in California. LOL.

I see some 280K-400K In Riverside but under 150K for a new home not even in Garden Grove I would see that in 2016 pricing

Logan Mohtashami says

Your first 2 countries, not Norway or Denmark, they found a oil boom and have a relative small population

Sweden then. Or Iceland, which has nothing but fish and volcanoes. Or Luxemborg. Or Austria. Or Japan.

I'd much rather live in Japan than Egypt if I was 20 years old.

thunderlips11 says

neoliberals

It's been interesting see the left fight the left in economics this cycle

thunderlips11 says

Iceland

More people working at JC Penny and Costco than the entire population of Iceland, 330K people

thunderlips11 says

I'd much rather live in Japan than Egypt if I was 20 years old.

You're white, you should not want to live in a Middle Eastern Country

Also: a youth bulge creates inflation, which creates the temptation to strangle growth to kill the inflation.

See the 1970s, worldwide.

As always, can anyone point where we lost all the jobs to robots and globalization on this chart...

You can see why America has the best domestic economy in the world for a country it's size

Not bad for a country over 323 Million to have 43 year low in claims and 16 year high job openings total of 5.8 million

The old can't work forever, thankfully we have a massive young labor force coming on line!

Logan Mohtashami says

More people working at JC Penny and Costco than the entire population of Iceland, 330K people

So what? We're speaking of general trends. It's amazing Iceland can support 300,000+ people on pretty much fishing alone, hardly much tourism.

And Japan? Lots of people, 4 small islands.

thunderlips11 says

See the 1970s, worldwide.

thunderlips11 says

much fishing alone

I always call it a finishing village

But they tried their Hot Money Banking suck in

90 Billion Dollar of Hot money total GDP there is 14 Billion

Didn't the Head guy resign their recent after the Panama Papers...

Now the Pirates are coming politically

Arrrggggggghhhh

Yep, too many young people disproportionate to the rest of the population, all forming households at once and entering their prime consumer years, create inflationary pressure.

I think the proportionality is the issue. There are many millenials but just as many boomers. When the boomers were in their peak years, they overawed all other age groups.

thunderlips11 says

create inflationary pressure.

See my above post... there are about as many millenials and boomers - that wasn't the case in the 70s and early 80s when the boomers dominated the demographics, overarching all other age groups.

thunderlips11 says

70s and early 80s

We had great demographics in 1980's and 1990's prime age labor force growth was awesome then

Logan Mohtashami says

Then the sales metric is still bad but not as bad as it looks

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/05/22/demographics-housing-starts/

This shit is managed. The solution to massive foreclosures threatening the financial sector was to restrict building. And it worked: they have their prices back. But doing so they painted themselves into an impossible corner: Many young people will be locked out FOREVER unless they allow enough construction to push prices down. This in turn would be very unsavory to many older people.

More 18-34 leaving with parents than with a partner:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-24/more-young-adults-now-live-with-parents-than-partners

The only thing to expect from demographics is that young people take over the politics.

Young people need to smell the coffee and wake-up. Boomers too: millenials are never going to pay what zillow say your home is worth.

Logan Mohtashami says

We had great demographics in 1980's and 1990's prime age labor force growth was awesome then

Growth for some, not so much growth for others.

The Silents had it great: Scarce Labor.

Logan Mohtashami says

I never understood why Liberals think wages would match productivity from 1970 when Globalization came and destroyed poverty and we created a massive service sector that gave everyone jobs as compared to a hard export economy that would have been a disaster for America

Destroyed poverty? What are you smoking?
Globalization destroyed developer nations middle class and made some very rich, and that's about it.

thunderlips11 says

We had great demographics in 1980's and 1990's prime age labor force growth was awesome then

This is the big liberal chart I have seen for years and then I add this because that chart complete non sense
'

How could this if everyone is so broke and there is no middle class...

Heraclitusstudent says

Destroyed poverty? What are you smoking?

Come on

You guys can do better that this

Tell me how broke stupid and pathetic Americans

are again

Poor America...

Logan Mohtashami says

As frequently talked about here: a farmer doing subsistence farming "earned" nothing and was counted as poor, but a semi-slave in a shoe factory wearing diapers because no bathroom break earning $2/day isn't.
That's the exact opposite of reality.

Logan Mohtashami says

Poor America...

The standard of living after paying for housing, healthcare and education collapsed dramatically.
An other fine example of lying with charts.

Heraclitusstudent says

The standard of living after paying for housing, healthcare and education collapsed dramatically.

An other fine example of lying with charts.

If that was case you have a mass exodus of Americans

Logan Mohtashami says

If that was case you have a mass exodus of Americans

I didn't say things are better elsewhere. Globalization, you know.
The only refuge is to be rich.

Heraclitusstudent says

The standard of living after paying for housing, healthcare and education collapsed dramatically.

An other fine example of lying with charts.

And child care. The only reason the 100+ line is going up is because women got jobs instead of taking care of the family.

I was hoping for the pothead picture...

Ironman says

I think your glasses have a certain "tint" to them:

-



-

(hint: Rose)

Awww How cute all the liberals who cry about American joining forces

This is exactly what I want... I hope your Gold Bugs Right extreme friends who cry about America eveyrday join you and your Zero hedge friends because all of you can't read data at all

Soft is Soft for a reason... Real Americans don't cry every day... thankfully there is more of us than you!

You're all going to lose at the end ... wrong country to bet against.... bad bad bet

Ironman says

Move OUT of CA..

Net migration data ages 30-39 has be shown an outflow from CA due to housing cost.

Why is this, because people work hard and they have the ability to move to cheaper states such as Arizona and Atlanta for example.

You might not have faith in our kids, but those who work hard, finish high school, go and finish college, or have a trade show skill

Give them some credit for being productive people, they don't have the structural issues that non educated Americans have or those with a drug problem

Have some faith in your fellow Americans, and only focus on helping the poor and those who have substance abuse, they need it more than anyone :-)

Ironman says

Heraclitusstudent says

You have millions of millenials in CA that would absolutely buy a house for $300K.

Move OUT of CA.. They're are TONS of houses less than $300K that you can buy in many areas of the country..

The problem with you Millennial whiners, you want your cake and you want to eat it too.

You don't anything about me: neither my age, nor my net worth, nor where I live. It's not about me. So STFU.
You're the one whining btw. I was just describing facts about the market in CA.

Logan Mohtashami says

You might not have faith in our kids, but those who work hard, finish high school, go and finish college, or have a trade show skill

This is a straw man. This is not a question of faith in this person or that one. It's the aggregate that doesn't add up. There is a generation gap between what millenials can pay, and what boomers think they will get. The housing permanent equity elevator is dead. History will unmask the "wealth effect" as a giant centrally organized deception. The basic mechanisms that maintained the increasingly tattered veil of glittery wealth in the west are falling apart.

Which is why you can show 20 charts showing how good things are, if this is all sitting on one artificial leg and this leg breaks, then these charts mean absolutely nothing.

Logan Mohtashami says

Atlanta for example.

Anecdotally, shitload of Californians in Atlanta over last 3 years. Having said that, most of the starter level(town houses) new construction inside I-285 is now starting around 500K, which is roughly around $227/sqft. Even my area is around 165/sqft and I bought less than 3 years ago at 89/sf

Heraclitusstudent says

This is a straw man.

Everything is straw man argument when you point out that the extreme left is 100% wrong about how bad things are in America

Guys it's over

The days of you lying on this site about America is coming to an end

You had your chance of some titanic Recession that was going to bring down Capitalism in a soft demographic patch cycle

It didn't happen, none of the new normal secular stagnation thesis happened even in a light demographic patch cycle 2008-2019

Adjust your language or be prepared to deal with me and my charts for the next 20 years ...

It's not going to get any easier for you guys post recession

Best part is

Your beloved Europe had had a terrible economy since 2011 and not even their weakness dented us

You think we went from a 2 trillion dollar economy to a 19 Trillion Dollar with 1/3rd the population of China and this was luck

No way!

Incidentally I don't believe the economy will collapse tomorrow, or that a depression must necessarily happen. You may well be partly right. If anything a building boom would be very good in terms of real economy. Asset prices are an other question though. There is a difference between real economy and asset prices.
The problem is that you think you know, when in fact there are way too many factors to consider, and just a few factors can throw your nice prediction in the garbage bean. Your confidence is misplaced. The future will be very different from what we imagine. For one thing, banking and mortgage lending will probably be fully automated soon. Get on with the program.

Logan Mohtashami says

Your beloved Europe had had a terrible economy since 2011 and not even their weakness dented us

Europe is doing efforts to reform itself and this is always painful. We have every reason to think Europe will emerge stronger from this.