patrick.net

When I know the left and right are united bearish against America... I see a opportunity to show why the extreme take on the American decline is way too bearish

For a country our size, no body does it better and nobody will.

History has show us that demogoues are a function of historical human nature

HydroCabron says

The usual "Hillary is to the right of Pinochet" talk, used to justify supporting Trump, is risible, but this is even funnier.

The progression of the Democratic Party

What's next

Logan Mohtashami says

I am so against the Anti American Bears

Logan Mohtashami says

left and right are united bearish against America

First of all, the stock market isn't America. I'm all for the stock market and our corporations doing well, but America is much more than the price of it's assets. If anything what ruins America is too much emphasis only on it's assets increasing in price.

Secondly, bears aren't anti America. If they are right, they are helping to prevent a future crash due to over priced markets bid up by gung ho "patriots" lol.

If they are wrong, they are simply adding bricks to the necessary "wall of worry" that a secular bull market needs.

Ever heard of a "short covering rally?"

When everyone is long equities, to the hilt, then the market will have nowhere to go but down.

Patriotism has nothing to do with it.

Plus technology has been a boost

Linkedin and others aren't killing jobs,

We aren't losing our jobs to robots

https://www.linkedin.com/in/logan-mohtashami-5167631?trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile

marcus says

First of all, the stock market isn't America.

I am not talking the stock market, I am talking economics. Old school economics and the left and right for their own agenda purposes have lost it with their false economic theories

This is why I target Gold Bugs and MMT which I have studied for years now and Lord have mercy they're so not versed in economics that they simply just make up stuff that's not true

Especially the lie that 24-95 million Americans aren't working

That's not how economics work

In their lies about America

We ended with

43 low claims and 16 year high in Jobs openings

Just calling them out for the lack of depth

I have to assume the housing prices are a result of too much money chasing too little product?

Apparently you are saying that the current interest rates are new normal.

I get it.. if you're an extreme left and right economic thinker this was your shot to try to make America some imperialistic empire that was about to decline

Hell No... Lord you guys completely whiffed on that

Hence why I wrote the

American Economy Is About To Crash article just to prove the point that Math, Facts and Data Matter

We are going to spend the next 20 years remembering all the Anti American Talk and drags their names out for 2 decades as being Demagogues, very sensitive men who have no idea what it means to be American tough

It will be my pleasure for the next 20 years to do this

indigenous says

Apparently you are saying that the current interest rates are new normal.

Low rates are the norm, high rates and inflation isn't

and the increase in the housing prices?

Don't forget the power of this

The king dollar, that is from toughness? or iniquity?

indigenous says

and the increase in the housing prices?

It's hot for sure, demographic demand for housing was good from 1996-2007 ... soft patch here and then we will get a better demand curve

However, be mindful not to mix renter economics with ownership economics

2 different sets of financial profiles

indigenous says

The king dollar, that is from toughness? or iniquity?

Biggest economy in the world, biggest military in the world, 81% prime age working force are working! 100 Trillion Dollars of net worth

I can't express how the Anti American Bears have blew it bad this cycle

The owner profile has been given a windfall from the housing crash and the renter profile has been given the sharp stick in the eye?

indigenous says

The owner profile has been given a windfall from the housing crash and the renter profile has been given the sharp stick in the eye?

This cycle and it shows in total home sales number

Mind this fact

2008-2016 total mortgage buyers have been under 5 million the entire time

Let me repeat that fact. 2008-2016 total mortgage buyers ( total home sales both new and existing) have been under 5 million since 2008-2016

1. Demographics Ages 17-29 massive Ages 49065 Massive, not natural home buyer demographics, renters at best
2. No more exotic loans
3. Mass exodus of defaults --> pushing to renting demand Gen X
4. Longer duration period time of home buyers ---> marriage later
5. Older Americans choosing to rent more in this cycle

This is why we have had a massive renting boom and not a ownership

But this will change in a few years

Logan Mohtashami says

Biggest economy in the world, biggest military in the world, 81% prime age working force are working! 100 Trillion Dollars of net worth

I can't express how the Anti American Bears have blew it bad this cycle

I'm talking about the advantage of owning the king dollar.

I have to admit I went to school on the demographics as they trump any economic theory.

However I'am not willing to throw the baby out with the bathwater. You are assuming that Austrians have nothing to say of value, not the case.

indigenous says

You are assuming that Austrians have nothing to say of value, not the case.

For a weak economy based on importing stuff and exporting stuff : Austrian economic discussion has merit

However, America doesn't fit that profile, in fact it's a special beast itself

Logan Mohtashami says

However, America doesn't fit that profile, in fact it's a special beast itself

The two biggest attributes of the US are the king dollar and the demographics to come.

The current slump was exacerbated by government meddling. Which always the case with any bubble.

Raise of Hands who is with me on this Pro American Push!

Lincoln was the guy who got 800,000 Americans killed. Admittedly his Hamiltonian ideas were very bearish for America.

indigenous says

Lincoln was the guy who got 800,000 Americans killed.

Much better, hopefully he is going to fire a rocket up Lincoln's ass

indigenous says

The owner profile has been given a windfall from the housing crash and the renter profile has been given the sharp stick in the eye?

You should have listened to the housing bulls.

47% of Americans on some form of govt. assistance?
How many can't handle a sudden $1000 expense?
How many can afford full coverage (Sorry!We don't cover that procedure,) healthcare under ACA or private health insurance?
Anyone can add to this list if they choose,there's plenty.

No Jobs,No Consumers. Anyone paying attention to
all the trains & ships that aren't moving freight/consumer goods.
Bear/Bull Shit is unimportant compared to a few facts.

I forgot to apply Pretzel Logic so I missed that everyone is doing fine.

10 15 years from now

When America sits on top of the world and all the soft talk of secular stagnation and new normal goes away

Remember me...

Because none of you Bears should ever take glory in what this country is about to do

Don't forget.. I am calling you all out Left and Right

Bad time in economic history to get super bearish on America

Logan Mohtashami says

10 15 years from now

When America sits on top of the world and all the soft talk of secular stagnation and new normal goes away

Remember me.

You may be right. However many of the negative factors that were present 10 years ago are still here today. We just bought ourselves time by lowering interest rates 300 basis points.

- rising uncontrollable healthcare costs
- rising uncontrollable education costs
- lack of affordable housing in job centers
- underfunded pensions

Yes there are many positives and that's why US is at the top in comparison to other first world countries that are also becoming feudal. For example, home ownership rate in Switzerland is 44%.

tr6 says

You may be right.

This is my biggest concern I have going forward

Household $ needed to take care of the old

This is a biggest spider web variable that I can't get a grasp on

Logan Mohtashami says

We aren't losing our jobs to robots

No we are losing jobs to trade.
The benefits of increases in productivity had always been spread across the population before. Until trade came in, added hundreds of millions in the labor supply.
Then all benefits, including those of technology, suddenly became concentrated on the owners. Coincidence?

Heraclitusstudent says

No we are losing jobs to trade.

Where on this chart did we lose our jobs to trade?

Starting about 1980ish you can see the slope of the line change. If you best fit that graph, it won't be a line but more of an exponential function. Because of all the jobs lost overseas and to automation.

If the money was redistributed back to the people who lost their jobs we'd be OK. But, instead all of the profits from increased productivity are enjoyed by a very small population. Therefore you have reduced velocity, reduced demand, structural unemployment, and stagnant wages.

tatupu70 says

Starting about 1980ish you can see the slope of the line change. If you best fit that graph, it won't be a line but more of an exponential function. Because of all the jobs lost overseas and to automation.

If the money was redistributed back to the people who lost their jobs we'd be OK. But, instead all of the profits from increased productivity are enjoyed by a very small population. Therefore you have reduced velocity, reduced demand, structural unemployment, and stagnant wages.

I disagree with everything you said right there

Logan Mohtashami says

I disagree with everything you said right there

Logan, you don't see it in your business because you just make % of the asset price essentially. I can assure that in fields that compete globally wages are down 40-50% in real terms in the last 10 years.

Distribution of economic output only grows with labor force and that needs consumption demand to service based model

At the start of the 1980's was one of the most strongest labor force growth periods in the history of mankind and that led to consumption model demand

You Left thinking people put too much weight on Reagan and the right put too much weight on Clinton

And in that political madness you missed the best demographic push ever which needed jobs which came from the service jobs

You left leaning people forgot how you go have it in America

My Lord self entitlement you think you have as a human beings is boggling

2 Trillion economy to 18 Trillion With 43 year low in claims and 16 year high in Job openings and the best arugument you have against capitalims is that high school drop outs can't make a living wage

tr6 says

Logan, you don't see it in your business because you just make % of the asset price essentially. I can assure that in fields that compete globally wages are down 40-50% in real terms in the last 10 years.

If that was even 10% no way PCE consumption as a % to GDP would be here

We don't have enough labor for demand and we are crying about jobs...

Go to Europe and try to pull off the complaint or go to Japan where unemployment is low but demographics is killing their capacity to push any growth

Logan Mohtashami says

Where on this chart did we lose our jobs to trade?

You are right we didn't "lose" jobs. We just crushed jobs. We destroyed good paying jobs and replaced with commodity workers, flipping burgers or equivalent.
But that wouldn't show on your nice graph of "jobs" that doesn't go down. (what you call facts)

You also have a nice graph of retail sales that goes up.
But does it mean people afford more stuff? Or does it mean they pay more for the same stuff? or maybe that rich people spend more on luxuries while everyone else is crushed?
These graphs hide the entire reality that is behind them.

Up to 2005, most people profited from housing prices going up. Now they are tearing society apart. But it looks the same on a chart.

Heraclitusstudent says

We destroyed good paying jobs and replaced with commodity workers

Let's take Bernie's assumption of 800K jobs lost

Poor Bo Ho

154 Million Americans working and the entire manufacturing world is in a slow down and China is desperately trying to switch to a service economy

The Only reason we don't have High Unemployment is that we moved to a service sector economy

and we are still the 2nd biggest manufacturing country in the world

That's what all the fuss and crying and Boo Hooo poor Americans are all cry babies making min wage

3.3 Million Workers getting paid $7.25

Min wage jobs in other countries they wouldn't have any

Fair enough... I will be the lone Bull on America,