patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

10 15 years from now

When America sits on top of the world and all the soft talk of secular stagnation and new normal goes away

Remember me.

You may be right. However many of the negative factors that were present 10 years ago are still here today. We just bought ourselves time by lowering interest rates 300 basis points.

- rising uncontrollable healthcare costs
- rising uncontrollable education costs
- lack of affordable housing in job centers
- underfunded pensions

Yes there are many positives and that's why US is at the top in comparison to other first world countries that are also becoming feudal. For example, home ownership rate in Switzerland is 44%.

tr6 says

You may be right.

This is my biggest concern I have going forward

Household $ needed to take care of the old

This is a biggest spider web variable that I can't get a grasp on

Logan Mohtashami says

We aren't losing our jobs to robots

No we are losing jobs to trade.
The benefits of increases in productivity had always been spread across the population before. Until trade came in, added hundreds of millions in the labor supply.
Then all benefits, including those of technology, suddenly became concentrated on the owners. Coincidence?

Heraclitusstudent says

No we are losing jobs to trade.

Where on this chart did we lose our jobs to trade?

Starting about 1980ish you can see the slope of the line change. If you best fit that graph, it won't be a line but more of an exponential function. Because of all the jobs lost overseas and to automation.

If the money was redistributed back to the people who lost their jobs we'd be OK. But, instead all of the profits from increased productivity are enjoyed by a very small population. Therefore you have reduced velocity, reduced demand, structural unemployment, and stagnant wages.

tatupu70 says

Starting about 1980ish you can see the slope of the line change. If you best fit that graph, it won't be a line but more of an exponential function. Because of all the jobs lost overseas and to automation.

If the money was redistributed back to the people who lost their jobs we'd be OK. But, instead all of the profits from increased productivity are enjoyed by a very small population. Therefore you have reduced velocity, reduced demand, structural unemployment, and stagnant wages.

I disagree with everything you said right there

Logan Mohtashami says

I disagree with everything you said right there

Logan, you don't see it in your business because you just make % of the asset price essentially. I can assure that in fields that compete globally wages are down 40-50% in real terms in the last 10 years.

Distribution of economic output only grows with labor force and that needs consumption demand to service based model

At the start of the 1980's was one of the most strongest labor force growth periods in the history of mankind and that led to consumption model demand

You Left thinking people put too much weight on Reagan and the right put too much weight on Clinton

And in that political madness you missed the best demographic push ever which needed jobs which came from the service jobs

You left leaning people forgot how you go have it in America

My Lord self entitlement you think you have as a human beings is boggling

2 Trillion economy to 18 Trillion With 43 year low in claims and 16 year high in Job openings and the best arugument you have against capitalims is that high school drop outs can't make a living wage

tr6 says

Logan, you don't see it in your business because you just make % of the asset price essentially. I can assure that in fields that compete globally wages are down 40-50% in real terms in the last 10 years.

If that was even 10% no way PCE consumption as a % to GDP would be here

We don't have enough labor for demand and we are crying about jobs...

Go to Europe and try to pull off the complaint or go to Japan where unemployment is low but demographics is killing their capacity to push any growth

Logan Mohtashami says

Where on this chart did we lose our jobs to trade?

You are right we didn't "lose" jobs. We just crushed jobs. We destroyed good paying jobs and replaced with commodity workers, flipping burgers or equivalent.
But that wouldn't show on your nice graph of "jobs" that doesn't go down. (what you call facts)

You also have a nice graph of retail sales that goes up.
But does it mean people afford more stuff? Or does it mean they pay more for the same stuff? or maybe that rich people spend more on luxuries while everyone else is crushed?
These graphs hide the entire reality that is behind them.

Up to 2005, most people profited from housing prices going up. Now they are tearing society apart. But it looks the same on a chart.

Heraclitusstudent says

We destroyed good paying jobs and replaced with commodity workers

Let's take Bernie's assumption of 800K jobs lost

Poor Bo Ho

154 Million Americans working and the entire manufacturing world is in a slow down and China is desperately trying to switch to a service economy

The Only reason we don't have High Unemployment is that we moved to a service sector economy

and we are still the 2nd biggest manufacturing country in the world

That's what all the fuss and crying and Boo Hooo poor Americans are all cry babies making min wage

3.3 Million Workers getting paid $7.25

Min wage jobs in other countries they wouldn't have any

Fair enough... I will be the lone Bull on America,

I think Logan's FRED chart at the top proves exactly NOTHING. What is your thesis about the chart, Logan? I think I can guess what the thesis is, but perhaps you should be explicit about it.

justme says

perhaps you should be explicit about it

Very Simple None of you have any idea How good you have it in America ... and how much life has gotten better here from 100 years ago

While entire world is slowly down we are complaining about a country that sits on top of the world, coming off the Great Recession

1. 43 Year low in unemployment claims
2. 16 year highs in job openings 5.8 million bigger than the total population of many of your beloved Nordic countries
3. Real Median and Nominal wages are at Today current cycle highs

This is what you guys are crying about.. the end of American's Imperialistic economy and now back to Serfs

From my bottom of my heart to every single person on Patrick.net

This video from my own words is for you!

#USA Baby, love it or leave it but don't cry about every day, that is for the soft and the weak

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10153602547313250/?type=3&theater

Logan Mohtashami says

You lefty people really believe this stuff don't you...

I see you guys on facebook crying every day about America and then going back to single family homes and kids with your cars...

Right have just as many crazy economic theories as well but they just hate Mexicans and Middle Eastern too much to care about anything else plus with their Bathroom issues

Both have lost your way!!!

You mean... all is not perfect in Armorika?

Heraclitusstudent says

You mean... all is not perfect in Armorika?

Facebook is a awesome place to listen to people who think they're the smartest economic people in the history of the world.

Some of you here know this because you're facebook friends of mine and you see what I have to deal with everyday

The deflationary spiral didn't happen! Core is up well over 1% now since the 2015

Let me ease all your concerns about America..

We are going to be fine, not just fine, we are going to do great and the world around us will have to fight demographics from behind while we lead from the front!

Logan Mohtashami says

The deflationary spiral didn't happen! Core is up well over 1% now since the 2015

Just wait till Trump builds his wall and puts his tariffs on China.
No one will be talking of deflation anymore.

Logan Mohtashami says

(Very Simple None of you have any idea How good you have it in America ... and how much life has gotten better here from 100 years ago

Uh, Logan, I was asking about the FRED chart in the thread post. The one that depicts w=(x-y)/z where x=fixed private investment, y=consumption of fixed capital, z=GDP.
What the hell does that supposedly have to do with "No crash coming!". Talk about mumbo-jumbo. Explain your thesis or quit. No more of this complete lack of logic:

1. post some random chart
2. mumbo-jumbo
3. therefore "No crash coming!" and "None of you have any idea How good you have it in America"

WTF man? You are making about as much sense as a Ten Pound Bass flopping around on dry land, to allude to another poster that seldom makes any sense.

Heraclitusstudent says

Just wait till Trump builds his wall and puts his tariffs on China.

If anyone believes that garbage then they should go short retail stocks now

justme says

WTF man?

Recessionary economics

Over investment thesis that creates a supply to demand imbalance, tech 2000 and housing 2007.

We have none of that here, none what so ever, Oil over investment thesis came and went and it did nothing in terms of job loss on a national level.

justme says

2. mumbo-jumbo

How is it mumbo jumbo all the charts are wording to them

If want wording here

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/02/10/mortgage-purchase-applications-recession-watch/

Recessionary economics needs a few things

1. Over investment thesis
2. Fed fighting inflation
3. Claims to rise above 323K
4. Falling LEI for 4-6 months

Logan Mohtashami says

Oil over investment thesis came and went and it did nothing in terms of job loss on a national level.

Oil deleveraging and negatives effects are in the 3rd or 4th inning right now.

tr6 says

Oil deleveraging and negatives effects are in the 3rd or 4th inning right now.

I am seeing upside in 2 quarters and the Philly Fed data even shows South D. in the Green

We have seen the worst from Oil, that portion is done

low velocity to this economy only 1% of the jobs in real terms, hence why it didn't have more of a impact

Speaking of oil and PMI if you guys want to read a good article, My friend wrote this, we have taking a lot joy in ripping the recession bears this cycle

It might be a bit complicated but I trust all of you will get it

US Recession Callers Are Embarrassing Themselves

http://www.macrofugue.com/us-recession-callers-are-embarrassing-themselves/

explain better why the PMI hawks blew it in this cycle

Logan Mohtashami says

This is what you guys are crying about.. the end of American's Imperialistic economy and now back to Serfs

The reason I point out the issues with the US economy is because I love my country. I want people like you to open their eyes and see what's happening around you.

You cry about things that mean nothing like existing home sales numbers and ignore what really matters. Like real wages. Inequality.

It's sad.

tatupu70 says

Like real wages. Inequality.

It's sad.

What you should be focused on is this group only

Because you think you have the moral high ground doesn't give you a right to make up data

- High School Drop Outs
- Non College educated Americans
- Non Trade Show Skill Americans
- Drug users not in rehab
- Criminal active Americans not in Jail

This is your wage problem group, the middle class is fine, the educated class is fine, channel your group down.. Don't mention the middle class what so ever

Have a good weekends guys and gals!

Logan

Is there any correlation to demographics and the great depression?

Logan Mohtashami says

What you should be focused on is this group only

Because you think you have the moral high ground doesn't give you a right to make up data

Make up data??? Your own charts prove my point--not yours. Inequality is rising. real wages are stagnant for the last 16+ years.

How do you think that contradicts anything I said?

Logan Mohtashami says

Because the air is so much better now than what it was

Technology did that, highly doubtful that it was the AQMD

tatupu70 says

How do you think that contradicts anything I said?

Employment to population and real median wages run hand in hand for a very long time for a reason, This is why Liberal Economist of the extreme left some that I call friends of mine have 100% missed the impacts of demographics.. Though I will say with a great big smile I am starting to get through... even some of my MMT people

So employment to population rise and shocking so does real wages, nominal wages always grows...

The joke I run on my Liberals is that they blame Nafta for every single problem on earth and on Planet Mars as well and yet when NAFTA was started we had a strong increase on real wages

That had only to do with employment to popualtion

So in a nut shell both the left and right are 100% wrong on the wage issue it doesn't make any sense, some use data taking Americans who retire and only collected S.S. as a form of wage decrease that matters nationally

So the problem here is that ... When employment to popualtion rises and wages are up then it seems like the Problem group above that I have talked with .. that group is fixed

No .. not even close, this is not a century for being a high school drop out, Drug addict, active criminal or non trade show skill America

These people need Federal Intervention help because they simply lack any skill of value to make any decent wage

So as you can see the up to date information of wages not the 2 year old data looks a lot different ... It looks better

But be mindful of this, poor uneducated people need massive federal intervention the skill they posses is off the grid in terms of making money most are working in food service business. If it wasn't for that they wouldn't even be employed

This site really needed someone in the middle ... left vs right stuff is a pizza fight gone stale!

Logan Mohtashami says

So in a nut shell both the left and right are 100% wrong on the wage issue it doesn't make any sense, some use data taking Americans who retire and only collected S.S. as a form of wage decrease that matters nationally

So the problem here is that ... When employment to popualtion rises and wages are up then it seems like the Problem group above that I have talked with .. that group is fixed

No .. not even close, this is not a century for being a high school drop out, Drug addict, active criminal or non trade show skill America

These people need Federal Intervention help because they simply lack any skill of value to make any decent wage

Once again you cant see the forest for the trees. You're basically saying that in the past when unemployment was low, real wages went up. No kidding. That's called supply and demand.

What you're missing is that past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The economy of today is a LOT different than the economy of 1980 or even 2000. There's a reason that each cycle's peak and trough are lower than previously. There are structural problems with this economy that are not going away. They are getting worse.

You're good at making charts--just not so good at understanding what they should be telling you.

Logan Mohtashami says

This site really needed someone in the middle ... left vs right stuff is a pizza fight gone stale!

lol--this isn't like the porridge from 3 bears. There is a right answer and a wrong answer.