patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

(Very Simple None of you have any idea How good you have it in America ... and how much life has gotten better here from 100 years ago

Uh, Logan, I was asking about the FRED chart in the thread post. The one that depicts w=(x-y)/z where x=fixed private investment, y=consumption of fixed capital, z=GDP.
What the hell does that supposedly have to do with "No crash coming!". Talk about mumbo-jumbo. Explain your thesis or quit. No more of this complete lack of logic:

1. post some random chart
2. mumbo-jumbo
3. therefore "No crash coming!" and "None of you have any idea How good you have it in America"

WTF man? You are making about as much sense as a Ten Pound Bass flopping around on dry land, to allude to another poster that seldom makes any sense.

Heraclitusstudent says

Just wait till Trump builds his wall and puts his tariffs on China.

If anyone believes that garbage then they should go short retail stocks now

justme says

WTF man?

Recessionary economics

Over investment thesis that creates a supply to demand imbalance, tech 2000 and housing 2007.

We have none of that here, none what so ever, Oil over investment thesis came and went and it did nothing in terms of job loss on a national level.

justme says

2. mumbo-jumbo

How is it mumbo jumbo all the charts are wording to them

If want wording here

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/02/10/mortgage-purchase-applications-recession-watch/

Recessionary economics needs a few things

1. Over investment thesis
2. Fed fighting inflation
3. Claims to rise above 323K
4. Falling LEI for 4-6 months

Logan Mohtashami says

Oil over investment thesis came and went and it did nothing in terms of job loss on a national level.

Oil deleveraging and negatives effects are in the 3rd or 4th inning right now.

tr6 says

Oil deleveraging and negatives effects are in the 3rd or 4th inning right now.

I am seeing upside in 2 quarters and the Philly Fed data even shows South D. in the Green

We have seen the worst from Oil, that portion is done

low velocity to this economy only 1% of the jobs in real terms, hence why it didn't have more of a impact

Speaking of oil and PMI if you guys want to read a good article, My friend wrote this, we have taking a lot joy in ripping the recession bears this cycle

It might be a bit complicated but I trust all of you will get it

US Recession Callers Are Embarrassing Themselves

http://www.macrofugue.com/us-recession-callers-are-embarrassing-themselves/

explain better why the PMI hawks blew it in this cycle

Logan Mohtashami says

This is what you guys are crying about.. the end of American's Imperialistic economy and now back to Serfs

The reason I point out the issues with the US economy is because I love my country. I want people like you to open their eyes and see what's happening around you.

You cry about things that mean nothing like existing home sales numbers and ignore what really matters. Like real wages. Inequality.

It's sad.

tatupu70 says

Like real wages. Inequality.

It's sad.

What you should be focused on is this group only

Because you think you have the moral high ground doesn't give you a right to make up data

- High School Drop Outs
- Non College educated Americans
- Non Trade Show Skill Americans
- Drug users not in rehab
- Criminal active Americans not in Jail

This is your wage problem group, the middle class is fine, the educated class is fine, channel your group down.. Don't mention the middle class what so ever

Have a good weekends guys and gals!

Logan

Is there any correlation to demographics and the great depression?

Logan Mohtashami says

What you should be focused on is this group only

Because you think you have the moral high ground doesn't give you a right to make up data

Make up data??? Your own charts prove my point--not yours. Inequality is rising. real wages are stagnant for the last 16+ years.

How do you think that contradicts anything I said?

Logan Mohtashami says

Because the air is so much better now than what it was

Technology did that, highly doubtful that it was the AQMD

tatupu70 says

How do you think that contradicts anything I said?

Employment to population and real median wages run hand in hand for a very long time for a reason, This is why Liberal Economist of the extreme left some that I call friends of mine have 100% missed the impacts of demographics.. Though I will say with a great big smile I am starting to get through... even some of my MMT people

So employment to population rise and shocking so does real wages, nominal wages always grows...

The joke I run on my Liberals is that they blame Nafta for every single problem on earth and on Planet Mars as well and yet when NAFTA was started we had a strong increase on real wages

That had only to do with employment to popualtion

So in a nut shell both the left and right are 100% wrong on the wage issue it doesn't make any sense, some use data taking Americans who retire and only collected S.S. as a form of wage decrease that matters nationally

So the problem here is that ... When employment to popualtion rises and wages are up then it seems like the Problem group above that I have talked with .. that group is fixed

No .. not even close, this is not a century for being a high school drop out, Drug addict, active criminal or non trade show skill America

These people need Federal Intervention help because they simply lack any skill of value to make any decent wage

So as you can see the up to date information of wages not the 2 year old data looks a lot different ... It looks better

But be mindful of this, poor uneducated people need massive federal intervention the skill they posses is off the grid in terms of making money most are working in food service business. If it wasn't for that they wouldn't even be employed

This site really needed someone in the middle ... left vs right stuff is a pizza fight gone stale!

Logan Mohtashami says

So in a nut shell both the left and right are 100% wrong on the wage issue it doesn't make any sense, some use data taking Americans who retire and only collected S.S. as a form of wage decrease that matters nationally

So the problem here is that ... When employment to popualtion rises and wages are up then it seems like the Problem group above that I have talked with .. that group is fixed

No .. not even close, this is not a century for being a high school drop out, Drug addict, active criminal or non trade show skill America

These people need Federal Intervention help because they simply lack any skill of value to make any decent wage

Once again you cant see the forest for the trees. You're basically saying that in the past when unemployment was low, real wages went up. No kidding. That's called supply and demand.

What you're missing is that past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The economy of today is a LOT different than the economy of 1980 or even 2000. There's a reason that each cycle's peak and trough are lower than previously. There are structural problems with this economy that are not going away. They are getting worse.

You're good at making charts--just not so good at understanding what they should be telling you.

Logan Mohtashami says

This site really needed someone in the middle ... left vs right stuff is a pizza fight gone stale!

lol--this isn't like the porridge from 3 bears. There is a right answer and a wrong answer.

Logan Mohtashami says

So as you can see the up to date information of wages not the 2 year old data looks a lot different ... It looks better

But be mindful of this, poor uneducated people need massive federal intervention the skill they posses is off the grid in terms of making money most are working in food service business. If it wasn't for that they wouldn't even be employed

You realize that if all these "poor, uneducated" people got college degrees, the supply/demand of the educated labor force would be greatly changed and the wages of the educated would stagnate, right?

Stop looking at the trees, and look at the forest.

tatupu70 says

You're good at making charts--just not so good at understanding what they should be telling you.

Do you know that when you called me a Douche-bag I thought to myself what Man says that word ;-)

You have a good heart, all my liberal friends and you lefty people here ... investment groups friends talking to each other all time

And by the way.. I want to say Hi to Ren.. because he runs this site, You should ask I found that out just by his sentence ...

You guys all mean...

well

But you're wrong ...

Globalization, Technology, Debt and Demographics have changed the economic landscape big time and America was the one that took over the economic world because our people chose to kick ass and work

What you have is a problem is the low end of the educated and skill gap and not the middle class and we don't have to worry about the Rich

Wages move with inflation but the lower end doesn't get that factor and cost of living has exploded for them... Focus on poor.. don't worry about the middle

Logan Mohtashami says

And, fyi--no change in real income for 16 years despite huge productivity gains isn't "better" in my book.

tatupu70 says

productivity gains

Productivity and wage correlation is a awful example wages move with inflation

Logan Mohtashami says

Do you know that when you called me a Douche-bag I thought to myself what Man says that word ;-)

I did not know that.

Logan Mohtashami says

But you're wrong ...

Nope. We're right. All your charts actually prove it. You just can't understand what they mean so you don't see it.

Logan Mohtashami says

Focus on poor.. don't worry about the middle

I'm focused on the US economy which includes rich, poor, and middle class. Educated, uneducated, folks who think they are educated, but aren't nearly as smart as they think they are...

Logan Mohtashami says

Productivity and wage correlation is a awful example wages move with inflation

That's why I said REAL wages. Please don't misstate my points.

Real wages absolutely should move with productivity gains.

tatupu70 says

Nope. We're right. All your charts actually prove it. You just can't understand what they mean so you don't see it.

Not only where you guys wrong... You were wrong in a a major way and now... You have lost your big advantage on trying to make America a economy that is about to collapse because we are all poor and broke

tatupu70 says

Real wages absolutely should move with productivity gains

This is goes into the spoon thesis

We can dig holes with a spoon and have many people work for it by digging holes with a spoon

Or we awake to modern day technology and have a machine do it much faster and better for us

Different time 1940'-1960's were our economy was small and we had no world competition

Never sustainable

Logan Mohtashami says

Not only where you guys wrong... You were wrong in a a major way and now... You have lost your big advantage on trying to make America a economy that is about to collapse because we are all poor and broke

What are you talking about? You're speaking in gibberish now.

Logan Mohtashami says

This is goes into the spoon thesis

We can dig holes with a spoon and have many people work for it by digging holes with a spoon

Or we awake to modern day technology and have a machine do it much faster and better for us

Different time 1940'-1960's were our economy was small and we had no world competition

Never sustainable

You are losing it. Are you arguing productivity gains don't create more wealth?

And you say here that the 1960s economy was "different" but you everywhere else you assume that the economy will act just like it did in the past when demographics change. Which is it?

tatupu70 says

What are you talking about? You're speaking in gibberish now.

If we are so broke then who the hell bought 100 Million cars and 40 million Homes in the last 8 years?

tatupu70 says

You are losing it. Are you arguing productivity gains don't create more wealth?

This was Elizabeth Warren Speech.. ;-) I use it all the times against Lefty's

Logan Mohtashami says

If we are so broke then who the hell bought 100 Million cars and 40 million Homes in the last 8 years?

When did I saw we are so broke? You are fighting against a strawman of me that doesn't exist. Read what I'm saying--not what you want me to be saying.

tatupu70 says

When did I saw we are so broke?

So people have the ability to spend then correct, the middle class did purchases goods, services and shelter

Logan Mohtashami says

This was Elizabeth Warren Speech.. ;-) I use it all the times against Lefty's

What? Are you really saying productivity gains don't create wealth?

Logan Mohtashami says

So people have the ability to spend then correct, the middle class did purchases goods, services and shelter

Of course some do. It's a long, slow journey to feudal times. We're not there yet.

tatupu70 says

What? Are you really saying productivity gains don't create wealth?

I am using her thesis that productivity gains was crazy high past the 1970's and no way wages could keep pace

This would be a high school drop out who has a drug abuse problem would be getting paid $22.70 for flipping burgers?

Not the best model to use.... if she knew it ...

But all your rich Liberals if you believe in that thesis

Open a store and then pay your people Productivity wage gains and lets see how long that business last because you would need to raise prices above inflation

Logan Mohtashami says

am using her thesis that productivity gains was crazy high past the 1970's and no way wages could keep pace

Keep pace--that's hilarious. Real wages gained exactly ZERO. I'd say that's a little worse than "not keeping pace"

tatupu70 says

Of course some do. It's a long, slow journey to feudal times. We're not there yet.

RIGHT THERE......

That's what I wanted to hear

the SERF thesis

I am going to have so much Joy in the next 20 years tearing the left thesis apart ...

It will be my pleasure

Logan Mohtashami says

RIGHT THERE......

That's what I wanted to hear

the SERF thesis

I am going to have so much Joy in the next 20 years tearing the left thesis apart ...

It will be my pleasure

Unfortunately, I'll have no joy proving you wrong over the next 20 years.