patrick.net

One of these days, you guys are going to remember my demographic economics and then it's going to make sense

Outer band limits can be discussed both positive and negative

But not the core thesis ...

That's kind of how economics works

If you theories were valid we would see much lower bands of economic output.. especially in this cycle...

Which I have said since 2010, was going to be weak... but you guys are taking it to a much darker place...

Ironman says

And that's the problem with your skewed narrative... you just want to count "bodies" employed versus reality on the ground.

I do feel sorry for a high school drop out working at Home Depot, or a non college educated America working at home depot and a non trade show Skill American working at home depot

But ...

They're working and if they were in a lot other countries they wouldn't be working at all...

Back to the cute thesis

Logan Mohtashami says

Back to the cute thesis

The chart you posted above shows those aged 25-54 have fewer part time jobs which makes sense given they are less attached to the labor force in general as the chart below shows:

This 25-54 age group is not working as much,
their incomes are not rising,
they have over a trillion in student loan debt (nearly half in default) and
new home prices are at all time highs, so fewer new homes are sold.

No amount of posting endless charts and ridicule will change that.

Ironman says

There you go.. I wasn't referring to the high school kid or non-educated... but you refuse to read and learn.

Who do think is working at these jobs

College 2015 Grad median pay is 48K-54K...

smaulgld says

See the %, do you now get why I find this thesis to be strange

It moves with employment to population metrics

Look at the % gaps, I mean you're basically saying America is a failure because

The last remaining high school drop outs, high school grads, and those who are drug addicts and criminal active aren't working full time jobs?

Because the rest are working

Again, you guys are versed in the data and now you're making my points for me

This is all you guys got about how pathetic America is ..

Try harder than that ....

Back to the cute thesis, look at all these job openings???

Where the hell are these last remaining Americans not working??

Might it be that prime age labor force growth has something to do it...

Ironman says

There are many EXPERIENCE workers at Home Depot (business people, experience contractors, etc.) who are working there

I know a few-they don't make it to a chart

The question remains unanswered. New home sales remain abysmal. Why? If there is a supposed roaring economy with full employment and rising incomes why hasn't that translated into new home sales?

Nothing to do with no wage growth, massive student loan debt overhand/defaults, low labor participation rate among 25-54 year olds and all time new home prices?

smaulgld says

massive student loan debt

Majority of Student loan debt is under 14K

30% of all student loan debt are from college drop outs and the average balance their is 9K

40% of total Student loan debt are from Grad students and trust me on this ... you don't need to worry about Grad Students, they will be fine

Logan Mohtashami says

30% of all student loan debt are from college drop outs and the average balance their is 9K

40% of total Student loan debt are from Grad students and trust me on this ... you don't need to worry about Grad Students, they will be fine

I don't even see student loans as a problem. If no one went to college our country would become like Africa.

A better thesis to use for the weak demand curve for new homes in this cycle, which I have been writing about for years

1. New Homes much more expensive than existing homes

2. The build out curve has been bigger and bigger homes making the demand curve much less

3. Without exotic loans, the capacity for the middle end to buy higher end is limited

4. Massive over investment and over purchase new home housing bust from the previous cycle

Looking longer term, you will need the builders to build cheaper homes to get the growth because their are limits on the high end

5. Demographics prime age labor for growth peaked in 2007

Strategist says

I don't even see student loans as a problem. If no one went to college our country would become like Africa.

Most of the wage, income and job problems comes from those who don't finish high school or never go to college

All my buyers for the last 20 years had one thing in common

They went to college

Logan Mohtashami says

All my buyers for the last 20 years had one thing in common

They went to college

Which is why they can afford OC prices.

Ironman says

Aren't we in 2016, not 2012?

2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 all the data lines are very similar, never changed at all

People aren't versed in this data line, because they hear on T.V. that everyone has 70K

Tsk tsk....

This is why the real focus problem group is the 30% of total college debt held by college drop outs, they make up majority of the delinquent loans in the loan profile

Because college Grads work and base median pay for 2015 was between 48K-54K

Ironman says

Again

Because student loan debt can't BK like other debts, the nominal growth will be flushed higher because you can't BK the debt

Ironman says

This stuff works on being not versed in the data, I know, I have seen this for 8 years on social media, especially on facebook...

But you have to explain all the variables

40% of all student loan debt comes from Grad students which make 100% of the higher debt loads

:-)

No jobs/poor paying jobs,no consumers.

The economy doesn't need no stinkin' consumers.
We just need to to pray to our pretzel logic economic theology to make things change.
More fiat currency,more subprime loans,more financial instruments & reduction in manufactured goods. "YEAH! That's the ticket."

Creation of more "apps" & tech gadgets will certainly send the economy soaring.

Ironman says

and you try and spin your way out of reality..

It's not spin it's data

Some of you are preaching to the man who said demand would be soft this entire cycle, but I am not making some end of American growth thesis here

I really do explain it here

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/01/25/home-builders-new-homes-sales-and-the-affordability-myth/

Ironman says

There's always the July 4th party, which is bigger. I wonder if Dan will show up this year.

How the fuck can I show up at your address when you refuse to reveal it like the coward you are just like you were two cowardly to meet up at a public place? That's all on you.

Ironman says

if you're carrying a ton of school debt, it makes it a whole lot tougher to get approved for a mortgage..

Logic that no amount of chart or selfie postings can refute

If any of you can show me any actual evidence that student loan debt has held back housing for first time home buyers and not demographics in a meaningful way

I would love to see that work, I mean actual evidence

But you guys with conservative economic views are trying to say

Educated people who are making money buy homes

Uneducated people can't buy homes but for some reason this group is actually the ones with the big student loan debt and they don't show up in the data

I mean really....

Is this the thesis you have going here?

Come on, try harder than that

smaulgld says

Ironman says

if you're carrying a ton of school debt, it makes it a whole lot tougher to get approved for a mortgage..

Logic that no amount of chart or selfie postings can refute

Higher educated people have more debt, but they also have more income. Higher incomes make it easier to qualify.
eg. A Doctor with $250K in student loan debt will still qualify for an entry level home.
eg. A High school drop out with Zero student loans is unlikely to qualify for an entry level home.

Strategist says

Higher educated people have more debt, but they also have more income. Higher incomes make it easier to qualify.

And the new home sales show that people are not brushing aside poor job prospects and student loan debt and buying new homes. New homes are being sold at rates last seen in the 1960's when the population was just 187 million.

smaulgld says

population was just 187 million.

This is the mistake everyone makes

Totol population is meaningless unless you adjust it to prime age labor force growth metrics

Ages 16-24 not home buyers, ages 49-65 not home buyers

Ages 25-54 prime age labor force growth matters

Hence why prime age labor force population matters

We are very heavy ages 17-29 and 49-65

That's not how economics works, this is something the housing bulls themselves totally missed

Why, because most people don't track data nor are they people versed in economics, more ideology people on the internet

New home sector has it's long term issues but a lot of that has to do with home size and demographics

The functional economic output of demographics will always have a higher velocity in any early stage

Both the bulls and bears on housing have forsaking this path for their lust of investment theory economics

This is where you lack discipline and it makes your sentence structure very predictable

Demographics:

Millennials Are the Most Populous Generation in America
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-113.html

New Home Sales at multi decade lows because millennials aren't buying them

smaulgld says

New Home Sales at multi decade lows because millennials aren't buying them

Exactly your chart right there proves my point

Who you do think is buying these homes as first time home buyers running at 32% of the market place that is millions of homes bought by the young in the last 8 years

Existing homes are much cheaper than new homes and new homes are running at 1/10th of the market place running at 15%-20% of that market place

Ages 21-26 are the biggest in America today, these are still kids .... not home buyers in this cycle not until the next decade

Live population clock on Census

It explains a lot if you want to know the truth

http://www.census.gov/popclock/?intcmp=home_pop

Millions of Americans first time home buyers buy every year

The % curve which was 40% in a strong demographic profile and the juicing of fake loans is now running at 30%

Fallacy of logic is to dispute facts on the group

Once you adjust to demographics proper age Americans have been buying this entire cycle

Ironman says

Logan, you can spout all your nonsense about college grads with high median wages and low debt, but it doesn't come close to matching reality and facts on the ground.

This is the beauty of being a data guy only and not a ideological person. I track all data live daily so the facts are there to prove my thesis

But, everyone else has these big macro economic theories, most which have failed already.... and you still think you know what's going on in this country

Doesn't work that way, hasn't for many many years.

Ironman says

Here's the demographics. You have a huge bubble of kids from boomer parents that are past college and prime time home buyers. The housing sales should be off the charts.

The population has been growing the past ten years as have the number of people 'of home buying age"

Indeed that pool of people has grown but the percentage of people IN that pool has declined due to
outstanding college debt
lower median incomes and or under employment or lack of employment
higher new home prices.

Interesting to see a denial of facts obsfucated with charts, red herrings and self aggrandizing photos and pronouncements
Unimpressed

I hate to break this to you guys but millions of Americans are buying homes that are first time home buyers for years

This is a false narrative thesis debate

Let me repeat Millions have bought homes 2008-2016

The % gap is 10% lower from a prime age peak back in 2007

Making a false economic fact ....

Ironman says

Logan, You need better data sources,

You took a chart of California only and you think that has any bearing to what I am talking about, especially when net migration out of CA from ages 30-39 has been a real deal since 2013 due to high housing cost.

come on, really.. did you really think that was going to work?

Is this the best you guys got???

Ironman says

You're a Cali dude, should fit right in...

The only time I specially talked about California was at the BNY Mellon Stock conference at Dana Point and on record said 82% of the working population in CA are priced out once you exclude cash buyers and those making 3X median which is now over 190K

CA has specific issues, a lot couples make good money here but you really need dual income ( college educated) to buy homes here because the debt borrower ed is much higher here in CA, unless you got stock options

Ironman says

Adjusted to demographics, million of home buyers are buying homes in this cycle that are first time home buyers, because existing homes are much cheaper

I don't buy the thesis of low inventory, if they can't afford it, they can't afford it

New Homes have a different set of issues because they only build to the high end