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81
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 12:06pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 12:06pm
kt1652 says
It wasn't cherry picking. It was what happened. Yes, I was probably a lucky smart ass. Not a fancy-pants smart ass though. At the time (2006 -2007) I was (wrongly, as it turned out) paranoid about hyperinflation and thought that if I generated my own electricity, it would be a small hedge against a collapsing US dollar. Moreover, I was not smart enough / savvy enough to trade FDIC insured bank deposit to "buy the big dip" of SP = 666 in March of 2009. Still paranoid then. It was only when I max'd out the tax loss harvest late in the year that I started cost averaging, in a very small way, using the gains 2010-2012 to hedge the new purchases.
Rin's stocks are not Rocket Science. They are called dividend aristocrats. Yes, some are losers. Like GE or until very recently BP. They average out with the Steady Performers.
I have some friends with rooftop solar. If they care about the environment, or they want to have a Status Symbol on their rooftop, or if they want to provide economic stimulus for the jobs they provide, then God Bless Them All, Mister Scrooge. But, "INVESTMENT?" Hahahahaha!
PV solar: ymmv. Taking ’09-’12 stock return as benchmark is silly. If that isn’t chery picking data big time. Feb 2009 is the market bottom of the great recession, The rest is history. If I only look at sp500 return from 2009 to 2018 (SP500 when from 750 to 2900, eyeballing ok?) Genius. Let look at house price appreciation too from 2009. Lol
It wasn't cherry picking. It was what happened. Yes, I was probably a lucky smart ass. Not a fancy-pants smart ass though. At the time (2006 -2007) I was (wrongly, as it turned out) paranoid about hyperinflation and thought that if I generated my own electricity, it would be a small hedge against a collapsing US dollar. Moreover, I was not smart enough / savvy enough to trade FDIC insured bank deposit to "buy the big dip" of SP = 666 in March of 2009. Still paranoid then. It was only when I max'd out the tax loss harvest late in the year that I started cost averaging, in a very small way, using the gains 2010-2012 to hedge the new purchases.
Rin's stocks are not Rocket Science. They are called dividend aristocrats. Yes, some are losers. Like GE or until very recently BP. They average out with the Steady Performers.
I have some friends with rooftop solar. If they care about the environment, or they want to have a Status Symbol on their rooftop, or if they want to provide economic stimulus for the jobs they provide, then God Bless Them All, Mister Scrooge. But, "INVESTMENT?" Hahahahaha!
82
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 12:26pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 12:26pm
ThreeBays says
What country (or state) do you live in? Ordinary dividends are taxed at 15% for every US taxpayer: Warren Buffet, Fancy-Pants Silicon Valley Hipsters, and Flyover-State Joe Sixpack.
With my tax rates, $3000 dividend is only $1500 after-tax.
What country (or state) do you live in? Ordinary dividends are taxed at 15% for every US taxpayer: Warren Buffet, Fancy-Pants Silicon Valley Hipsters, and Flyover-State Joe Sixpack.
83
kt1652
2019 Feb 10, 12:26pm
kt1652
2019 Feb 10, 12:26pm
Rin being a "genius" - sarcasm. If you read any of Buffett's books it basically same advise for dividend stocks.
Years ago I had said buy SDY, an aristocrat dividend ETF, the same thing. (circa 2012, before Iw0g went ballistic. ;-)
Wish my wife had listened, instead of losing $ on TSLA.
Most sane FIRE (financial independent retire early) forum member use 4% as a safe withdrawal rate for retirement planning. Some really knowledgeable and sensible financial strategies there. PERS Calif St Emp Pension (largest in the USA) use somewhere from 6-7% future return and they may be too optimistic. If I use 2009-2012 market return I would be loony.
Years ago I had said buy SDY, an aristocrat dividend ETF, the same thing. (circa 2012, before Iw0g went ballistic. ;-)
Wish my wife had listened, instead of losing $ on TSLA.
Most sane FIRE (financial independent retire early) forum member use 4% as a safe withdrawal rate for retirement planning. Some really knowledgeable and sensible financial strategies there. PERS Calif St Emp Pension (largest in the USA) use somewhere from 6-7% future return and they may be too optimistic. If I use 2009-2012 market return I would be loony.
84
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 1:00pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 1:00pm
ThreeBays says
Nothing funny about The Environment, nor the Economic Stimulus. The person I'm acquainted who works for an installer did some prison time. Now he's installing solar on Techies' rooftops in the Bay Area. Thank you everyone.
What is funny is how folks will rationalize how smart they are, such Financial Savvy, with their Rooftop Solar. Sunk, ill-liquid capital in a depreciating asset on their rooftop.
The high pressure sales tactics... it wasn't so many years ago I was harassed by good-looking young talkers from their tables in the local hardware chain store, with their solar-installer company-logo polo shirts, asking me if I'm a homeowner (none of your business, kid) as a lead-in to the high pressure sales tactic that always led to "we'll need to schedule an appointment at your house to give you a quote". You would have thought they were selling timeshares. Besides working the aisles at the hardware store, they came door-to-door, also.
To paraphrase Governor Brown from his 1970's administration, the cheapest kilowatt is the one you don't use. Just came in from loading my Cool and Hip Solar-Wind Powered App (it also works on windless nights, but not nearly as fast) with a large load of laundry. Yes, it's cold in SJ today but it's windy: they will dry fast and that's about 3 kHr we won't be buying.
Folks rationalizing to me, what a Savvy Investment they made on their rooftop, sounds so much like folks rationalizing the Time Shares they have. Only once did a Solar Homeowner, a retiree in the Walnut Creek area, share with me any downside. When I was considering getting one a bit more than a decade ago, he said he was overall pleased with it . He also told me that he noticed a loss in efficiency / generation of it over time. He said if he went up on the roof and washed off the dust and bird poop he'd regain MOST of the lost capacity. As it turned out, they sold the home and moved to Vegas, "Sunk Capital" on his rooftop.
Environment, yes. Economic stimulus, yes. Investment? Silly.
What's funny?
Nothing funny about The Environment, nor the Economic Stimulus. The person I'm acquainted who works for an installer did some prison time. Now he's installing solar on Techies' rooftops in the Bay Area. Thank you everyone.
What is funny is how folks will rationalize how smart they are, such Financial Savvy, with their Rooftop Solar. Sunk, ill-liquid capital in a depreciating asset on their rooftop.
The high pressure sales tactics... it wasn't so many years ago I was harassed by good-looking young talkers from their tables in the local hardware chain store, with their solar-installer company-logo polo shirts, asking me if I'm a homeowner (none of your business, kid) as a lead-in to the high pressure sales tactic that always led to "we'll need to schedule an appointment at your house to give you a quote". You would have thought they were selling timeshares. Besides working the aisles at the hardware store, they came door-to-door, also.
To paraphrase Governor Brown from his 1970's administration, the cheapest kilowatt is the one you don't use. Just came in from loading my Cool and Hip Solar-Wind Powered App (it also works on windless nights, but not nearly as fast) with a large load of laundry. Yes, it's cold in SJ today but it's windy: they will dry fast and that's about 3 kHr we won't be buying.
Folks rationalizing to me, what a Savvy Investment they made on their rooftop, sounds so much like folks rationalizing the Time Shares they have. Only once did a Solar Homeowner, a retiree in the Walnut Creek area, share with me any downside. When I was considering getting one a bit more than a decade ago, he said he was overall pleased with it . He also told me that he noticed a loss in efficiency / generation of it over time. He said if he went up on the roof and washed off the dust and bird poop he'd regain MOST of the lost capacity. As it turned out, they sold the home and moved to Vegas, "Sunk Capital" on his rooftop.
Environment, yes. Economic stimulus, yes. Investment? Silly.
85
kt1652
2019 Feb 10, 1:13pm
kt1652
2019 Feb 10, 1:13pm
The more you write the more you step into "it".
Notice I don't mentioned green, environmental benefits...wrt solar PV economics.
If you know the first thing about PV solar basics, is you must first eliminate waste and reduce electricity consumption.
Buying solar panel to offset wasted energy is foolish.
If you dont like to read books, spend some time at :solarpaneltalk forum.
There is a retire solar engineer there JPM, moderator. He basically chews out any newbie who talks about installation of PV before chasing down waste with a kill-a-watt or by analysis. Your best return is the kw that you never used.
On unsupervised solar chats, people would come on and complain why after PV install on roof their rates actually went up. The family think they can now go hog wild burning electrons because they have solar. Or idiots who install 2X more than they need, just in case, more is better right? Wrong.
Notice I don't mentioned green, environmental benefits...wrt solar PV economics.
If you know the first thing about PV solar basics, is you must first eliminate waste and reduce electricity consumption.
Buying solar panel to offset wasted energy is foolish.
If you dont like to read books, spend some time at :solarpaneltalk forum.
There is a retire solar engineer there JPM, moderator. He basically chews out any newbie who talks about installation of PV before chasing down waste with a kill-a-watt or by analysis. Your best return is the kw that you never used.
On unsupervised solar chats, people would come on and complain why after PV install on roof their rates actually went up. The family think they can now go hog wild burning electrons because they have solar. Or idiots who install 2X more than they need, just in case, more is better right? Wrong.
86
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 1:32pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 1:32pm
kt1652 says
That's hilarious.
I really wanted to install one in 2007. Even spent on a new roof to get it ready, when the repair we did after the NY Eve Storm was sufficient. I understand about The Environment. That's why, I don't have an irrigated lawn, keep a small footprint, grow some of our own food, only ever drove small cars, carpool to work (do you?) only buy organic (at my age, it's not about health, it's about trying to help the whole organic supply chain to be viable), etc. ad naseum.
What cracks me up, is how sensitive-reactive some Rooftop Solar FanBoys go ballistic when I call BS on their Financial Savvy.
Besides the retiree from Walnut Creek, a FanGirl and a FanBoy I know, also sold their homes and relocated before achieving the "break-even", leaving that Sunk/Trapped/Ill-liquid capital on the rooftop. I would not include the Walnut Creeker as a FanBoy as he shared a more balanced perspective.
Another FanBoy relocated and kept his house as a rental. Not sure who's benefiting from those "free" electrons now, him or the tenant. I should ask him.
The more you write the more you step into "it".
That's hilarious.
I really wanted to install one in 2007. Even spent on a new roof to get it ready, when the repair we did after the NY Eve Storm was sufficient. I understand about The Environment. That's why, I don't have an irrigated lawn, keep a small footprint, grow some of our own food, only ever drove small cars, carpool to work (do you?) only buy organic (at my age, it's not about health, it's about trying to help the whole organic supply chain to be viable), etc. ad naseum.
What cracks me up, is how sensitive-reactive some Rooftop Solar FanBoys go ballistic when I call BS on their Financial Savvy.
Besides the retiree from Walnut Creek, a FanGirl and a FanBoy I know, also sold their homes and relocated before achieving the "break-even", leaving that Sunk/Trapped/Ill-liquid capital on the rooftop. I would not include the Walnut Creeker as a FanBoy as he shared a more balanced perspective.
Another FanBoy relocated and kept his house as a rental. Not sure who's benefiting from those "free" electrons now, him or the tenant. I should ask him.
87
kt1652
2019 Feb 10, 1:42pm
kt1652
2019 Feb 10, 1:42pm
Investment can be safe, risky, sweat (open a business), time even education.
If something I purchase today or build today and it saves me money or prevent problems later, it would be an investment.
End of discussion, no data no reference...just "fanboy.... whatever...".
Show me some numbers, $s, real world calcs, lay down assumptions, parameters, projections, then talk.
If something I purchase today or build today and it saves me money or prevent problems later, it would be an investment.
End of discussion, no data no reference...just "fanboy.... whatever...".
Show me some numbers, $s, real world calcs, lay down assumptions, parameters, projections, then talk.
88
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 6:47pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 6:47pm
ThreeBays says
As I said, bless you all for your solar. There's lots of folks in the Bay Area who need the work doing the installs.
Ahem, the federal rate on Ordinary Dividends is 15%. If you have a high income, 18.8% with the Obamacare surtax. The top California rate for most of us is 9.3%. 18.8 + 9.3 = 28.1%. Not 50%.
Unless your income is over a half million. Then the state rate is 10.3%. Over 1 M per year, 13.3%. You make over 1 M per year, your combined taxes on dividends would be 32.1%. Not 50%.
Besides, you make that kind of income every year, you don't need to bother about the Investment Savvy of a solar installation on your roof.
my marginal tax rate on investment income is also a factor. Fed + CA + NIIT = 50.1% tax.
As I said, bless you all for your solar. There's lots of folks in the Bay Area who need the work doing the installs.
Ahem, the federal rate on Ordinary Dividends is 15%. If you have a high income, 18.8% with the Obamacare surtax. The top California rate for most of us is 9.3%. 18.8 + 9.3 = 28.1%. Not 50%.
Unless your income is over a half million. Then the state rate is 10.3%. Over 1 M per year, 13.3%. You make over 1 M per year, your combined taxes on dividends would be 32.1%. Not 50%.
Besides, you make that kind of income every year, you don't need to bother about the Investment Savvy of a solar installation on your roof.
89
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 8:58pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2019 Feb 10, 8:58pm
ThreeBays says
Thank you. You are right; I stand corrected. Mostly what it has meant for me, almost all the "Ordinary" dividends were also "Qualified". The exception was some income that was actually more like "interest" from bond funds and such.
but what I think you meant is Qualified Dividends
Thank you. You are right; I stand corrected. Mostly what it has meant for me, almost all the "Ordinary" dividends were also "Qualified". The exception was some income that was actually more like "interest" from bond funds and such.
90
Rin
2019 Feb 11, 5:10pm
Rin
2019 Feb 11, 5:10pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
The thing is that ordinary dividends are also given to swing traders, who may hold onto a stock for let's say a month and a half (the minimum is some 2 days), with the idea of getting some short term cap gains and a dividend check during quarter's end.
Qualified dividends are given to long term stock holders, who're then not doubly taxed, since the corporation already paid off Uncle Sam earlier.
Thank you. You are right; I stand corrected. Mostly what it has meant for me, almost all the "Ordinary" dividends were also "Qualified". The exception was some income that was actually more like "interest" from bond funds and such.
The thing is that ordinary dividends are also given to swing traders, who may hold onto a stock for let's say a month and a half (the minimum is some 2 days), with the idea of getting some short term cap gains and a dividend check during quarter's end.
Qualified dividends are given to long term stock holders, who're then not doubly taxed, since the corporation already paid off Uncle Sam earlier.
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