patrick.net

I avoid any semblance of predicting markets and have done reasonable dollar cost averaging a la Vanguard. It has worked out great over years.

If you can't force markets to your will, then forget about market timing. Market timing will drive you crazy, and you will never beat it. Or, you will beat it one day, then lose to it the next. That is just the gambling superstition stating to you that you are fated to prevail over statistics. It is just generally better mental health not to buy into the notion that you are stochastically blessed. If you are, it will happen anyway. If you aren't, then you haven't wasted your precious life mooning over it or trying to direct it.

The gurus don't know, either, they are just in the business of pumping up the suckers, and profiting on the inevitable and inveterate gamblers. Remember the cardinal rule of addicted gambler's self reportage: they never talk about their losers, or about the sum total of winning and losing, just about their winners. They also talk about their superstitions surrounding their next big sure thing.

Also, sure, there will be lucky stiffs purely as a matter of random chance, not inspiration. These random lucky stiffs will often become gurus, to deploy their luck by exploiting the suckers. Looking at and following winners is inductive reasoning, not deductive, and does not work on random markets.

The Wall Street Journal did an article about chasing winners, and actually tracked theoretical investments in past big winners. They showed that chasing winners was the best guaranteed way to become a financial loser. The true future winners were never predictable.

You are in the casino for the long run and the house always wins over the long run. Your real power is compounding over time without losing frivolous amounts gambling.

Ironman says

Depends on where you have it invested. If you are heavy in stocks, you'll just ride the roller coaster of the market during the year

So, in that case, you would do 1500/month? What if one selected an S&P index fund?

Ceffer says

then forget about market timing

I guess though, indirectly I've selected timing by virtue of the fact I'm loading it up every year in the earliest months. Should I go with a flat rate throughout the year instead?