patrick.net

Is Logan saying there can't be a correction?

Good times are here to stay, but only for people already having good times. If you aren't having a good time, you never will. #NewReality

Good times are here to stay, but only for people already having good times. If you aren't having a good time, you never will. #NewReality

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The Land of Opportunity. Don't you worry, you can take out a loan for an education, then take out a loan for a place to live, and then hope you're fortunate enough not to be bankrupt from Affordable Healthcare.

#theNewNewNewEconomy

What are you guys talking about? We are in a recovery.

Strategist says

What are you guys talking about? We are in a recovery.

After step 12 you remain in a recovery. For the rest of your life.

correlation was pretty tight between corporate profits and the S&P up to 2009.

yield expectations have been cut by half thanks to all the printing, so maybe we're allowed more upside in the S&P 500 now.

OTOH, when Hillary wins should the GOP retain the House, things are going to get totally, totally fucked in DC.

If you had only listened...

Go look at what I wrote

Because oil is rising Q4 2016 or Q1 2017 Earnings will turn positive that is the reason the markets should hit a new all time high because consumption levels are still good enough..

Oh by the way

MASI (Main stock)
ATEN
UNXL
Z
GPRO
KBH
WTW
HP

TWTR

DB had a stop loss provision in it

That's a nice % return if you go time stamp every time I said to buy it

But stick to cash and ARLP... that is the safe way to play since the market cycle is very old and employment cost index is in it's first stage of rising

#Loganswan

When the next severe downturn happens, which will be far sooner than most expect, and brutal in depth & length, Logan will disappear or try and revise his prior permabull bullshit statements (ad nauseam).

Data trends turn negative then we switch from growth to recession trends and tracking when we can see the recovery data flip and here it happened on June of 2009 right when the markets turned as well

Logan Mohtashami says

the next recession will be very normal

I learned long ago that investors keep fighting the last war. I was 30 during the 1987 crash, had been investing for 11 years. The memory of that event kept so many people waiting for "another, worse one". The '08-09 crash was much worse so it's not surprising people think:

freespeechforever says

When the next severe downturn happens, [it] will be far sooner than most expect, and brutal in depth & length

They're conditioned.

One thing to remember about economic cycles.

You have pin point where the over investment was and how high a multiplier you want to give it.

Housing was a high multiplier due to the consumption base model economics we have here in the U.S.

Professor Sufi from Chicago Booth and I have been at 2 conferences together as we talk about this very topic. So much economic output tied to housing and people forget the cash out boom from 2004-2006

www.ns4bxXfqOow

neplusultra57 says

Logan Mohtashami says

the next recession will be very normal

I learned long ago that investors keep fighting the last war. I was 30 during the 1987 crash, had been investing for 11 years. The memory of that event kept so many people waiting for "another, worse one". The '08-09 crash was much worse so it's not surprising people think:

History shows those worst crashes are the best time to buy. Not just for stocks, but for real estate too.

Ironman says

Logan Mohtashami says

One thing to remember

is why are you still here??

Logan Mohtashami says

Goodbye Patrick.net... it was a good time!

We are his friends. He can't just pack up and leave.

Logan Mohtashami says

Because this cycle lacks a high multiplier debt leverage bubble the next recession will be very normal

Really? debt levels in the US and other countries are not at historically high levels?

We are growing at 1% a year. There is a basic reason for this slow growth: growth in the developed countries depend on debt growth, and many people are loaded with debts (or rich), same with companies and governments, and borrowing more is difficult or unpopular. The government could borrow to infinity, it's just extremely unpopular.

Growth therefore is petering out. Capital investment is lagging, and productivity dying.

This is not a depression but I would not call this perspective particularly bright - except maybe in comparison to others.

There is a reason why we have 10yrs rates at 1.5%: we are simply not growing.

Heraclitusstudent says

Really? debt levels in the US and other countries are not at historically high levels?

Debt servicing ratio are at decade lows, the debt structure are the cleanest on record... a lot fixed debt on rising wages

Debt to asset ratios are the best the world has ever seen

Next recession will be very minor unless this cycle goes on for another 6-8 years

The market doesnt crash off market highs, and close to all-time implied-vol lows.

It'll be a few months at a minimum. My guess for next few months: the market will stay high as long as hillary remains clear favorite. If/when Trump becomes a threat to win, the market may have a temporary sharp Brexit-type drop.

If the equity market environment changes to a possibleequity scenario, ill see it beforehand in the options market.