patrick.net

Prices are collapsing

It's a plant with a beautiful, utilitarian flower. The price will continue to trend lower as cannabis is commoditized.

Invest in it all so you can speed along the death of the Marijuana Rentiers!

Prices have already cratered from ~ $10 a gram , down to $2-3. That's some serious disruption.

Let's start there...

Does anyone know what the ballpark street cost has been in CA while illegal?

And what will be the cost, purchased legally, here in CA?

Will there be different types offered just like booze?

I want to know when it will be in Home Depots herb section, will ever be that common of a plant?

Antelope Valley area is looking like its going to be a major player with growing.

To invest for the most part other than in the black market your left with buying marijuana stocks on
the OTC market (pennies market) which carries more inherent risk then just about any other market.
Here are a couple that I have a stake in that are doing well. There was lots of speculation $ going into
them a few weeks before the election and have held up fairly well since, AGTK being my best performer
hitting 2700% profit on house shares I still own. Now it's sitting at 1500%+ however I'm giving it lots of room
to move because I expect several 1000% more in profit before I close it down.

AGTK, MCIG, TRTC, CBIS, BLOZF, XXII, ICBU

MJNA is a possibility, I'm looking for a little stronger confirmation before I execute a trade.

WE HAVE LAWS IN THIS COUNTRY!
Rep/Con/Teas that use/used this killer drug or have any financial connection should be tried as domestic terrorists & executed.
These people are drug cartel,sleeper cell members?
They hate america & it's laws.

Scroll far down the list to #3
https://www.drugs.com/article/csa-schedule-1.html
......
5 time Draft Dodger,Not My president will not enforce federal laws?
Hates america?

"In terms of marijuana and legalization, I think that should be a state issue, state-by-state," Trump told The Washington Post. "… Marijuana is such a big thing. I think medical should happen — right? Don’t we agree? I think so. And then I really believe we should leave it up to the states."

http://www.businessinsider.com/where-donald-trump-stands-on-weed-legalization-2016-11

errc says

Prices have already cratered from ~ $10 a gram , down to $2-3. That's some serious disruption.

Dispensaries down here are still charging $10 for bottom shelf. Prices have been steady in San Diego for the past four years, at least at the shops.

To clarify, I'm not necessarily talking about investment in marijuana. I'm talking infrastructure, equipment, breathalizer technology, etc. Think outside the box.

And those stock tickers, my goodness. That's straight gambling. Thank you for sharing, I will look into them.

It may be a good idea to short stocks associated with the prison industry. They make a large fraction of their money on the basis of locking up marijuana dealers, and will now have fewer prisoners to charge taxpayers for.

They were I think the biggest lobbyist against legalization, and the beer distributors were second.

So perhaps it may also be good to short beer distributors and producers. Or to buy puts for more safety than shorting.

Though it looks like some alcohol producers may be getting into cannabis production: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/reads-weed-kend-beyond-marijuana-200538728.html

lol, my sentiments exactly Patrick.

What fraction of our US prisons are non-violent marijuana related users/sellers?

BayArea says

That's straight gambling. Thank you for sharing, I will look into them.

Absolutely... It's a market you trade risk capital in it's truest form and definition of a zero-sum game.
The idea is look for trades that have high probability of 100% and ideally 200% gains then sell off for profit and keep some house shares for a bigger run.
You can use http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=runreport,predefalli to find OTC high volume and 52 week new highs to see what the flavor for the
day is. OTC is definitely not for everyone but is the best way a person can leverage and have exposure to this market.

Cigarette makers, duh.

Graybox says

AGTK

With this kind of volatility and small market caps, can I expect that limit orders will always execute? Let's say I'm investing 4 or 5 figures at a time.

What's been your experience with this?

Volatility is what gets myself and other traders interested because we know other traders are interested in our trade.
I never have a problem with execution.

The Arcview Group (https://arcviewgroup.com) estimates that now that Prop 64 passed, legal sales of cannabis products in Cali, currently valued at $2.7 billion, will grow to $6.4 billion by 2020.
I can't think of another industry with that projected growth rate.

rpanic01 says

I want to know when it will be in Home Depots herb section, will ever be that common of a plant?

I don't know how it's going to be done in CA, but in Maryland, you have to have a license from the state, and there are only a very limited number of those, most likely only available to individuals who made the appropriate bribes (AKA campaign contributions).

Straw Man says

Cigarette makers, duh.

Are they any currently operating cigarette factories in CA?

rando says

So perhaps it may also be good to short beer distributors and producers.

You really think people are going to drink less alcohol when legal pot become available? I have not heard that before. Perhaps there is some data on this available from Colorado that can confirm this.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

You really think people are going to drink less alcohol when legal pot become available?

Absolutely.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

rando says

So perhaps it may also be good to short beer distributors and producers.

You really think people are going to drink less alcohol when legal pot become available? I have not heard that before. Perhaps there is some data on this available from Colorado that can confirm this.

Alcohol sales in Colorado actually increased after Cannabis became available legally for recreational use.

errc says

Alcohol sales in Colorado actually increased after Cannabis became available legally for recreational use.

Any data on Washington State?

https://www.leafly.com/news/politics/how-have-alcohol-sales-been-impacted-since-cannabis-legalization

Since Colorado legalized recreational cannabis 18 months ago, alcohol sales have "seen phenomenal growth," according to Justin Martz, the owner of a wine and spirits store in Denver.

Martz isn't the only person in the alcohol industry who's enjoyed an uptick in sales post-legalization. The New Belgium craft brewing company hasn't seen a negative impact in sales, either, with its spokesperson arguing that alcohol and cannabis can actually boost each other's overall sales

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2015/09/15/legal-weed-in-colorado-doesnt-curb-alcohol-sales/

Alcohol excise tax collections were up 2.4 percent, to about $42 million. Marijuana-specific taxes came in at about $70 million.

Haven't found any articles on Washington State yet.

OK, maybe alcohol sales will go up with legalized pot. Not sure why, but it's believable.

Maybe people need something to quench their dry mouth?

BTW @Graybox thanks for posting the stock tips. I may check one or a few of those out.

just_passing_through says

Maybe people need something to quench their dry mouth?

I was thinking along those lines myself...

NuttBoxer says

Dispensaries down here are still charging $10 for bottom shelf. Prices have been steady in San Diego for the past four years, at least at the shops.

http://www.priceofweed.com/prices/United-States/California.html

Amazing everyone can charge that much. The stuff is literally a weed, though I guess the intensive cultivation has certain costs in power and fertilizer.

just_passing_through says

BTW @Graybox thanks for posting the stock tips. I may check one or a few of those out.

Thanking me now cussing me later... lol Just a note, my trading and executions are system based and not so much on the fundamentals.
The problem with sharing tickers is 95% of participants don't really know how to trade and the pennies market is the dirtiest market on earth
just about.

Have you ever traded the OTC markets?

Legal marijuana has two positive side effects:

1. environmental: an estimated 11% of all electricity in California is spent on indoor pot farming using electrical growing lights. Now the growing can use sunshine instead. Winning! Growing marijuana with lamps really is obscene. Also probably some benefits from avoiding unnecessary fertilizer use and pesticide use.

2. fiscal and social: as people have pointed out, the benefit of not unnecessarily criminalizing and jailing large swaths of various minority populations will have social benefits, as well as fiscal savings. Only problem is, what underground jobs might replace the MJ?

rando says

NuttBoxer says

Dispensaries down here are still charging $10 for bottom shelf. Prices have been steady in San Diego for the past four years, at least at the shops.

http://www.priceofweed.com/prices/United-States/California.html

Amazing everyone can charge that much. The stuff is literally a weed, though I guess the intensive cultivation has certain costs in power and fertilizer.

Most of the costs come once the plant is cropped. Yea, you can cure it on the cheap like a shlep. But if you want the kind of raw chronic that my friend had delivered to my hotel room in Las Vegas, that My friend happily paid $25 a gram for, you need some expensive, labor intensive processes to get you there.

Frito-Lay, 7 & I holding Co, and PBH which owns Clear Eyes.

rpanic01 says

Frito-Lay, 7 & I holding Co, and PBH which owns Clear Eyes.

I was meaning to mention something about Doritos and brownies.

rando says

Amazing everyone can charge that much. The stuff is literally a weed, though I guess the intensive cultivation has certain costs in power and fertilizer.

The cost is driven by prohibition. Plants all take about the same amount of effort and cost, although trimming is quite time intensive. I expect costs to be way lower for the ditchweed they'll sell at Walmart, produced by big tobacco. But I expect craft weed, like craft beer to continue to have a place in the industry, and carry a premium.

rando says

OK, maybe alcohol sales will go up with legalized pot. Not sure why, but it's believable.

The only correlation I can think of is the heightened sensory perception that comes with smoking cannabis.

"Have you ever had a craft beer? Have you ever had a craft beer, on weed!?"

Bump for Patrick

Yes, I remember.

rando says

They were I think the biggest lobbyist against legalization, and the beer distributors were second

Biggest reason why NY/NJ will be last blue states to get recreational weed

justme says

n estimated 11% of all electricity in California is spent on indoor pot farming using electrical growing lights. Now the growing can use sunshine instead.

Sodium vapor lamps would still produce a more consistent product. Indoor usually bears outdoor on potency

Graybox says

AGTK being my best performer

hitting 2700% profit on house shares I still own. Now it's sitting at 1500%+ however I'm giving it lots of room

to move because I expect several 1000% more in profit before I close it down.

You must buy these at absolute lows for these gains, most people don't have the time to scan and most companies like AGTK will end up at zero making lower lows and lower highs. AGTK may be doing better and be more serious with decent insider ownership, but the OTC market will rip-off most investors as death spiral financing and extreme dilution is the norm.

Graybox says

Thanking me now cussing me later... lol Just a note, my trading and executions are system based and not so much on the fundamentals.

The problem with sharing tickers is 95% of participants don't really know how to trade and the pennies market is the dirtiest market on earth

just about.

Have you ever traded the OTC markets?

That sounds like better advice.

mell says

AGTK

I'm not recommending just sharing real trades I'm currently managing. I do target lows and I only buy the pennies
market I don't short sell. AGTK I've played multiple times and won't let all that profit go, but they are free so it don't
hurt for me to play it out.