patrick.net

joeyjojojunior says

have $$ to spend

First time buyers are 50% of all home purchases now.. M's are entering their 30's and buying homes

1929 crash is running into a higher supply of people that need shelter, food, energy and stuff....in the next few years...

Now as a demographic guy I don't believe older countries can grow fast for many reasons but then again I was a 2% GDP guy in this cycle

Does the smallest investor have exactly the same opportunity to profit as all other investors?
Yeah! Right!

I be loving me some data.

"According to the 2014 census, 14.5% of Americans, or over 45 million people, live in poverty, up from 11.3% in 2000; a rate not seen since the early '90s."
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/45-million-americans-live-poverty-you-wouldnt-know-it-watching-2016-coverage

"Almost 5 percent of Americans struggle living just one step above poverty, according to a new report by the Census Bureau."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/five-percent-of-americans-hover-just-above-poverty/2014/05/01/1d8fe754-d16a-11e3-a6b1-45c4dffb85a6_story.html?utm_term=.64bbec4f67d1

Let me cypher.
14.5% + 5%=19.5%

I am looking for the data that tells me how many of these will purchase
pitchforks & Guillitones preparing for revenge on RIGGED CAPITALISM,The Market,TBTF
& the rich. I'm sure the data will show they will act when they finally get pissed off & are tired of being
fucked by the 10%.
A great number probably own firearms.

Strategist says

Are you better off, or worse off?

What's important is how the "worse off" feel about being "worse off"
especially when there are many of them.

I've just had a glimpse of a Black Swan.

Repeal ACA. 20 million will be very happy.
Republicans messing with SS & Medicare,the poor will be ecstatic.
Of course there aren't any Con/Reps in the numbers of poor/near poor.
Trump better be making some jobs.

HEY YOU says

I be loving me some data.

Logan Mohtashami says

Millennials will be out of their highschool room at 31, rent, marry at 39, rent, they buy their first home at 51.
Here goes your demographic case.

I am trying to tell you guys, 1929 and 2017 are different beast ....

Logan Mohtashami says

Trust me.. nobody living in 1929.. is living now with their homes

Do you really not understand the point? I posted a chart of wealth inequality--homes are included in that chart. Saying more people own homes doesn't help because it's reflected in the data already posted.

Logan Mohtashami says

1929 crash is running into a higher supply of people that need shelter, food, energy and stuff....in the next few years...

Need and can afford are two different things. That's the point.

joeyjojojunior says

I posted a chart of wealth inequality--homes are included in that chart

What I am trying to explain is that more middle class Americans own homes and have that wealth than 1929, the distribution isn't the same. This is why a deflationary collapse in America is very unlikely

Logan Mohtashami says

I am trying to tell you guys, 1929 and 2017 are different beast ....

Then show all of those charts in 1928. Otherwise, how are you showing that it's different?

To show a difference, you have to compare them. All you are doing is showing graphs of today.

joeyjojojunior says

Need and can afford are two different things. That's the point.

Retail sales cycle highs
Home sales cycle highs , mortgage buyers cycle highs
Wages all time highs
165 Million working Americans
Highest Job openings print ever

These are not what you see in near deflationary collapses coming from a soft demographic patch as we are from 2008-2019

joeyjojojunior says

All you are doing is showing graphs of today.

We have more working people now than the total population back in 1929

Listen I am not a total Conservative tool here, I am open to more government spending for the lower end... just not worried about our middle class

I wouldn't come on this show if I was

Logan Mohtashami says

What I am trying to explain is that more middle class Americans own homes and have that wealth than 1929, the distribution isn't the same. This is why a deflationary collapse in America is very unlikely

And what I'm saying is that that is reflected in the chart I already posted.

Logan Mohtashami says

These are not what you see in near deflationary collapses coming from a soft demographic patch as we are from 2008-2019

Really? Retail sales always peak before a recession. Again--what were they in 1928?

joeyjojojunior says

Again--what were they in 1928?

This isn't a deflationary collapse working population data line

1929 collapse would need humans to not spend on food and energy in the same trend post 1939

Logan Mohtashami says

We have more working people now than the total population back in 1929

So what? We have more non-working people too.

Logan Mohtashami says

1929 collapse would need humans to not spend on food and energy in the same trend post 1939

Because they have no money?

joeyjojojunior says

We have more non-working people too.

Missing only 2.5 million prime age workers from the peak of the last cycle

Note what you're saying is roughly 43.7 million will refuse to buy food and gasoline which will send GDP to negative 10% and unemployment rates to 30

joeyjojojunior says

Because they have no money?

This theory that Americans are too poor to buy food and gasoline the middle class doesn't have any data to support it

Logan Mohtashami says

Note what you're saying is roughly 43.7 million will refuse to buy food and gasoline which will send GDP to negative 10% and unemployment rates to 30

Nope--that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying at some point people won't be able to borrow money any longer and therefore won't be able to spend at the same rate as they are spending now. They won't refuse to buy food and gas-they just won't be able to afford it.

Logan Mohtashami says

This theory that Americans are too poor to buy food and gasoline the middle class doesn't have any data to support it

Of course it does--I already posted it. The data is inequality. The pie grows at 2%/year roughly. If more and more goes to the top 0.01%, then it means that the other 99.9% are getting less and less. This can't continue forever.

joeyjojojunior says

They won't refuse to buy food and gas-they just won't be able to afford it.

I have heard of this theory that debt servicing for food and gasoline will go away

I just to buy it due to the distribution of income to consumption for both and not to mention we have SNAP today too

I've not read all the comments. Has anyone caught on to Logan.
He's so invested in his economic theology that he is doing everything to convince himself that the status quo can continue.
Living in fear is not the best choice of lifestyle.

Damned old data.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/

A lot bad things have to happen to have a 1929 deflationary collapse....

HEY YOU says

Damned old data.

Like I said you can't read data properly hence why you think everyone is poor outside the 1%

I understand why you do what you do.. but you're completely voided 7 decades of data

also your baseline assumption is that majority of Americans are poor living in high cost areas

Logan Mohtashami says

I understand why you do what you do.. but you're completely voided 7 decades of data

How does a median household income of $58K void anything I do? Half of all US households earn less than $58K/year. You don't see a problem there?

Logan Mohtashami says

also your baseline assumption is that majority of Americans are poor living in high cost areas

How is that one of my assumptions?

Does the bright future outlook take into consideration the potential impact of climate change, or that would be anti-American?

joeyjojojunior says

How does a median household income of $58K void anything I do? Half of all US households earn less than $58K/year. You don't see a problem there?

No it's not a problem. You have the opportunity to earn more.

joeyjojojunior says

They won't refuse to buy food and gas-they just won't be able to afford it.

Have you seen how fat Americans have become? It's due to eating too much food. Less food would definitely be a plus.

Strategist says

Have you seen how fat Americans have become? It's due to eating too much food. Less food would definitely be a plus.

Actually healthy foods are more expensive which is part of the problem.

joeyjojojunior says

Strategist says

Have you seen how fat Americans have become? It's due to eating too much food. Less food would definitely be a plus.

Actually healthy foods are more expensive which is part of the problem.

Eat more fruits and salads. They are much cheaper than McDonald's.

Strategist says

You have the opportunity to earn more.

Yeah, everybody should get a PhD, MD, JD, or become a financial blogger/writer and make > $100K. Educate people, educate!

FP says

Strategist says

You have the opportunity to earn more.

Yeah, everybody should get a PhD, MD, JD, or become a financial blogger/writer and make > $100K. Educate people, educate!

Don't drop out of school. Get same training on a skill. The opportunities are endless, but some people would rather not take it.