patrick.net

gary, you dog you - destroying that el moussa family by bangin' the MILF.

You guys are economic cretins. Both of you. I nailed it about the Fed and why Trump is toast.

Gary Anderson says

I nailed it

we know, you fuckin' home wrecker.

Ironman says

Gary Anderson says

Trump is toast.

With butter or jelly?

Or maybe even French.

Check out my post on your thread, Ironman, you know about the gun in the hands of the guy in Alaska. Be shocked and saddened for your nation, Trump or no Trump.

As for economics, it makes no sense that the Fed would raise rates when there is no inflation unless it prefers recession over inflation. And that it does.

higher rates also create a stronger dollar, too, yes?

(blue is CPI and red is the Fed rate)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=cjwP

To the point, I think the Fed would be happy to see a 2001-style recession hit later this decade, but who the hell really knows what they want.

I do know that both household and gov't debt levels are still 2X over the happy zone:

Yes Bill, a strong dollar would help the American consumer but he is broke, but it will crater world trade. GDP could be destroyed. The Fed wants a recession because it hates and fears inflation even if it is not present!

There will be a recession anyway, Trump or no Trump. But the deepening of it will be because of Trump. He will make a recession worse. And then he will be gone in one term.

hmm, looking at that first graph above I do see a possible pattern we could follow, how the 1960s went from the ZLB after the '58 recession to 10% in Nixon's first term.

I think a 2001-scale recession is callable for 2022 or so. There's going to be too much LSD in the punchbowl for a serious recession to hit this decade I think.

According to this indicator, effective demand limit, the recession is near. Now, can Trump do anything to stop it when the Fed is raising rates? I don't think so. In the 1960's there were not trillions of dollars of derivatives that require collateral. If you read the article you will see how collateral is treated these days and how screwed we are as to growth when we have these weapons of mass destruction and their sensitive collateral, mostly treasury bonds.

Gary Anderson says

Does this graph have anything to do with demographics? You must be one of Logan's Heroes.