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10

_ 2017 Jan 10, 8:13am

Ok

So

The horrible economy

Consumption is at all time highs, home sales are running at 6 million and 165 million people are working when labor force growth was running at 7 million post 2007

Car sales just hit an all time high

All when inequality is rising

Just don't... don't dig even deeper

11

_ 2017 Jan 10, 8:15am

Can't have record high demand and then say consumption is being held up... it doesn't work that way

Focus on the uneducated and unskilled, stop worrying about the middle class

12

indigenous 2017 Jan 10, 8:15am

The Capt'n had it right when he said the economy changes in new ways it does not go back to the old ways.

13 joeyjojojunior 2017 Jan 10, 8:16am

See, this is where you always lose. And why you ignore my point about how the economy was running in 1928. Economy running relatively well now doesn't mean there isn't a recession looming 12-24 months in the future.

14 joeyjojojunior 2017 Jan 10, 8:17am

"Can't have record high demand and then say consumption is being held up... it doesn't work that way"

Well, actually you can. You just don't have as much demand as you would have had if inequality was lower.

15

_ 2017 Jan 10, 8:17am

joeyjojojunior says

was running in 1928.

What you're implying now is that high economic output in an over investment thesis can lead to a 1929 crash?

Recession come and come... but your thesis of the U.S. has never happened..

I promise you.. I will not fail you.. my model of economic cycle timing has never failed me once post 1960...

16 joeyjojojunior 2017 Jan 10, 8:18am

"I promise you.. I will not fail you.. my model of economic cycle has never failed me once post 1960..."

Of course it has. Demographics does not explain the economy since 1960. Absolutely not.

17

_ 2017 Jan 10, 8:19am

joeyjojojunior says

You just don't have as much demand

Demographics demographics demographics .....

18

_ 2017 Jan 10, 8:20am

as a country gets older their older population .... doesn't spend like they do when they were in their 30's and 40's

Household formation is the key and that is always a function of demographics ...

I am trying to save you guys from messing it up big time... even Japan didn't see this epic collapse they're just old

19 joeyjojojunior 2017 Jan 10, 8:21am

So, to show that you're right since 1960, you post charts starting in 2001? Typical Logan.

20 joeyjojojunior 2017 Jan 10, 8:22am

Logan--

You should worry about saving yourself from looking like a bigger idiot than you already do.

21

_ 2017 Jan 10, 8:24am

joeyjojojunior says

Typical Logan.

LEI, Claims, over investment thesis

I felt so bad for my recession bears that I finally just gave the model out because I knew their recession calls where worthless

7. Recession Watch

I recently joked on a Facebook live that once President Trump got in the office a lot of my fellow conservatives would change their bearish outlook on the American economy to a more sunny, bullish one before any new legislation even got passed. It was shocking (not!) that is exactly what has happened. As a prime example, Harry Dent took back his weekly claim of the Dow going to 6,000. I would like to suggest that we look a data rather then ideology to predict whether or not we should expect a recession.

For those who agree, here are some things to look for:

A.Is there over investment in a key economic sector of the economy such as housing or the stock market? Over-investment is necessary in order to prime a recession. Unless you scale the heights you cannot take a great fall.
B. Are leading economic indicator falling for 4-6 months straight? A dip for one or two month does not a recession make.A sustained trend is needed to indicate a recession rather than a temporary correction.
C. Have unemployment claims gone over 323K on the 4 week moving average?
D. Has the Federal Reserve taken steps to fight inflation?

22

_ 2017 Jan 10, 8:25am

Since 2009 we havenâ€™t seen any of the above indicators and unemployment claims has had a streak of 95 weeks under 300K. For 2017 we are safe. Oil prices have gone up from the lows of 2016, PMI numbers are looking better and world trade is picking up. The dollar is on the verge of making an epic break out. If it breaks over 106 â€“ 108 then manufacturing will get hit again but for now the dollar commodity relationship has calmed down from itâ€™s initial big impact in 2015.

Trump and the Economy

As I stated earlier, I believe that demographics and inflation have a greater effect on the economy then any sitting president. I am not concerned that Trump will cause rising mortgage rates and bond yields or start a trade war in 2017. President elect Trump may make some deals to keep a few companies from moving jobs overseas, but to date he hasnâ€™t threatened tax penalties for those who already have factories in other countries. I go into more detail on the potential effects of the Trump presidency on manufacturing in a previous article and will not reiterate those points here.

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/12/09/manufacturing-under-president-donald-trump/

23

_ 2017 Jan 10, 8:25am

Regarding infrastructure expenditures and tax reform I expect both to be fully implemented in 2018. I expect President Trump and congress to aggressively attack or dismantle the Affordable Healthcare Act, but have no expectation of an agreement for some other plan to take its place.

2017 should be an interesting year because there is a risk that both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year yield could go higher â€“leading to problems in manufacturing and housing. I would keep my eye out for those two variables. On the positive side, continued economic weakness in China, Japan and Europe still will not have the dampening power to put the U.S. into recession as many have said over the last few years. This is America folks, not some 3rd world country with a devaluing currency leading to massive inflation.

24

_ 2017 Jan 10, 8:26am

joeyjojojunior says