patrick.net

joeyjojojunior says

The poll wasn't biased or wrong, people changed from undecided to Trump.

Yes, they were biased and wrong. This isn't even something that's debatable anymore since we have the data and have gone over it for months since the election. In fact these same polls CONTINUE to oversample/undersample for everything from approval polls to issue polls. Take for instance the ABC News/WaPO National Poll in January gauging Trump's favorables, a poll that featured prominently in Silver's data. Also consider that according to Gallup the most recent breakdown of their party identification statistic breaks down like this; 29% Republican / 40% Independent / 28% Democrat / 3% other.

31% democrats, 23% republican, and 37 percent independent. That's a 8+ point SWING towards Democrats in that poll alone. You think that poll is not tainted by bias?

CNN has also been caught loading 8-10 point partisan gaps into their polls regularly.

Like I said, Lynda.com is free, and I'll chip in for an upgraded account so you can take a few courses.

It's not even debatable anymore?? Really? The average of polling data on Nov. 8th was Clinton +2.9 and the final election tally was Clinton +2.1. It's not possible that undecided voters accounted for 0.8% of the vote in Trump's favor?

You really are a CIC alt, aren't you? That was his favorite topic--the supposed polling bias in favor of Dems. Only the results are amazingly accurate for having any bias. Or are you saying this bias accounted for 0.8% of the vote?

joeyjojojunior says

You really are a CIC alt, aren't you? That was his favorite topic--the supposed polling bias in favor of Dems.

Are you actually denying that ABC News/WaPO and CNN engaged in poll loading?

Are you actually saying that pollsters whose job and livelihood depends on accurate results purposely made such an obvious mistake as oversampling Dems? That's what you think?

joeyjojojunior says

Are you actually saying that pollsters whose job and livelihood depends on accurate results purposely made such an obvious mistake as oversampling Dems? That's what you think?

CNN depends on accurate polling results for its livelihood?

CNN doesn't equal pollsters.

The network doesn't rely on it, but the employees who CNN pays to get polling data certainly do.

joeyjojojunior says

CNN doesn't equal pollsters.

The network doesn't rely on it, but the employees who CNN pays to get polling data certainly do.

Yeah that makes a lot of sense, the pollsters who work for CNN wouldn't dare manipulate data even if it didn't agree with the narrative CNN was trying to push. CNN being a network of the utmost trustworthiness would always expect perfectly sampled, non-loaded, completely unbiased polling data.

Ah, the CNN is biased narrative. So, I'm assuming the CNN polls were wildly different than other polling firms then, right? Since they were trying to push a specific agenda that others weren't?

Oh, wait, the CNN results are similar to everyone else? I guess you're wrong again.

Goran, just ignore joey/tatupu. It's obvious he lives in denial or is just trolling you.

He's like the fat obnoxious kid at the party who thinks he's always right and won't shut the fuck up. Even when he's blatantly wrong.

joshuatrio says

Oh, wait, the CNN results are similar to everyone else?

Yes! Did you notice how 95% of the MSM media got the election completely and utterly wrong? It proves my point. Nate Silver's model was compromised by loaded, tainted data.

joshuatrio says

Goran, just ignore joey/tatupu. It's obvious he lives in denial or is just trolling you.

He's like the fat obnoxious kid at the party who thinks he's always right and won't shut the fuck up. Even when he's blatantly wrong.

Probably trolling, but if not, I would like to see how far people will travel up "the nile" to avoid the truth. For purely entertainment purposes.

Obligatory:

"Yes! Did you notice how 95% of the MSM media got the election completely and utterly wrong? It proves my point. Nate Silver's model was compromised by loaded, tainted data."

So, that actually proves my point. CNN didn't have any alternative agenda as they agreed with all the polling data that was out there.

I still haven't heard any explanation for why all these biased polls, when averaged, were only 0.8% off. Care to take a crack at it?

"Goran, just ignore joey/tatupu. It's obvious he lives in denial or is just trolling you."

So, proving that Goran wrong is now considered trolling? Great.

What exactly am I in denial of? That the polling was well within normal error bars?

joeyjojojunior says

So, that actually proves my point. CNN didn't have any alternative agenda as they agreed with all the polling data that was out there.

True, they didn't have an "alternative agenda", I think it was pretty obvious ABC/WaPO/NYT/CNN all had the same agenda.

Goran_K says

True, they didn't have an "alternative agenda", I think it was pretty obvious ABC/WaPO/NYT/CNN all had the same agenda.

And don't forget such liberal bastions as FOX, Wall St. Journal, Economist. They were clearly in on it too as their polling matched everyone else's.

Yep, all three were anti-Trump, the first two until he was inevitable.

TwoScoopsMcGee says

Yep, all three were anti-Trump, the first two until he was inevitable.

They weren't anti-Trump on Nov. 8th.

joeyjojojunior says

They weren't anti-Trump on Nov. 8th.

The Economist has been and still is anti-Trump and endorsed Hillary for her Private Policy of Bank Love.

joeyjojojunior says

FOX, Wall St. Journal, Economist

True.

WSJ and Economist were definitely anti-trump.

FOX was 50/50 depending on who was reporting (Megyn Kelly was one of the most vocal anti-trumpers on MSM and worked for FOX during the election).

Not that it matters. ABC News/WaPO was weighted nearly twice as high as FOX in Nate Silver's model anyway.

Goran_K says

Not that it matters. ABC News/WaPO was weighted nearly twice as high as FOX in Nate Silver's model anyway

Of course it was. Silver weighted on past performance.

Still waiting for the explanation of how a 0.8% difference from Nov. 8th polling to actual result on Nov. 9th constitutes a major miss and evidence of a biased methodology. Especially since its pretty well founded that late deciders went for Trump.

joeyjojojunior says

Still waiting for the explanation of how a 0.8% difference from Nov. 8th polling to actual result on Nov. 9th constitutes a major miss and evidence of a biased methodology. Especially since its pretty well founded that late deciders went for Trump.

What? Literally no one has made that argument in this thread.

We're telling you that 95% of the national polls being wrong is almost unheard of for any national issue. Even with Brexit, the polls were 40/60, 30/70, but 95/5? That's called story telling.

Goran_K says

We're telling you that 95% of the national polls being wrong is almost unheard of for any national issue. Even with Brexit, the polls were 40/60, 30/70, but 95/5? That's called story telling.

Actually you have made that very argument in your last dozen posts at least. You are just not well versed enough to realize it.

I'll help you understand--how is being off by 0.8% considered "wrong"? What do you consider "right"?

Goran_K says

Why, this is a great example of a model being proved right. Moving 180 degrees in the span of a few hours.

Ah, so you are seeing your mistake now?

I've said all along that for sure most of the MSM models were shit. They didn't account for dependency of many of the probabilities and underestimated the error of polls with such high levels of undecided voters.