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Peak Oil Demand Is Millions Of Barrels Away


               
2017 Jul 10, 4:40pm   524 views  13 comments

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The notion that demand for crude oil will soon peak has largely replaced the idea from a decade ago that crude oil production was about to peak for geological reasons. This new idea is that we will no longer need oil (or at least a lot less of it) because consumers will choose alternatives to oil.

But actual oil consumption numbers suggest that peak demand for oil won't happen soon, and when it does happen it will do so at a demand millions of barrels per day (BPD) higher than current demand.

Proponents of peak demand expect that exponential growth in electric vehicles (EVs), and to a lesser extent an increase in biofuel production will send oil demand into permanent decline. In fact, nearly a year and a half ago Bloomberg suggested that at a continued annual growth rate of 60%, electric vehicles could displace two million BPD of oil by 2023. At a 30% growth rate, two million BPD would be displaced by 2025.

I addressed the key problem with the Bloomberg scenario here. In a nutshell, the article treated oil demand as stagnant, which resulted in the assumption that in 2023 the displacement would take place from current demand levels. In other words, if 2016 demand was 95 million BPD, the Bloomberg scenario presumed 2023 demand at 93 million BPD (and falling every year).

The flaw in the scenario is that for over 30 years average oil demand has grown each year by more than a million BPD.ï„¿ï„¿ Over the past decade, oil demand has grown each year by 1.1 million BPD. Over the past five years, 1.4 million BPD. Last week the bible of energy statistics was released -- the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017 -- and it showed that oil consumption grew by 1.6 million BPD last year:

Full Article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/06/19/peak-oil-demand-is-millions-of-barrels-away/#4d3817446940

Related: The Global Oil Demand Driver That Is Being Ignored. http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/The-Global-Oil-Demand-Driver-That-Is-Being-Ignored.html

Related: After Peak Oil, Are We Heading Toward Social Collapse? http://www.countercurrents.org/2017/07/01/after-peak-oil-are-we-heading-toward-social-collapse/

#PeakOil #AlternateEnergy #ElectricCars #SocialProblems

Comments 1 - 13 of 13        Search these comments

1   Dan8267   2017 Jul 10, 5:00pm  

Yeah the global economy will tank, but a few billionaires will double their money, so it's worth you losing your job and your kids dying needlessly when you can't afford healthcare. I mean, the alternative is unthinkable. Imagine if we cleanly produced energy, which has always been cheaper than coal and oil if you stop cost shifting via pollution and would only get cheaper if pro-pollution policy didn't pick the winners. Also we wouldn't be dependent on Muslim oil and wouldn't be Saudi Arabia's bitch. But all this is outweighed by the fact that some hippies from the 1960s would be mildly happy if we made the switch, and we can't allow that. For Reagan's sake, we can't allow that.

So instead, we welcome our new Islamic overlords.

#SaudiArabiasBitch

2   Strategist   2017 Jul 10, 5:32pm  

Folks, the days of fossil fuels are numbered:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/05/autos/volvo-electric-cars-internal-combustion-engine/index.html
Volvo is going all in on the electric car.
The Swedish automaker is slamming on the brakes on vehicles powered solely by internal combustion engines, announcing that every car it makes from 2019 onward will have an electric motor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/business/energy-environment/france-cars-ban-gas-diesel.html?mcubz=1
France Plans to End Sales of Gas and Diesel Cars by 2040

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/03/technology/future/india-electric-cars/index.html
India to sell only electric cars by 2030

3   Tenpoundbass   2017 Jul 10, 5:43pm  

If peak Oil is already a problem then Peak Rare Earth happened millions of years ago.
Electric cars are doomed.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/06/25/america-rising-squared-report-bashes-evs-using-same-rare-earth-metals-gas-powered-cars

Our Electric Cars will depend on if China gives us enough resources to make that a reality.

https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/us-vulnerability-mammoth-battery-disconnect-rare-earth-supply/

4   Strategist   2017 Jul 10, 6:03pm  

Tenpoundbass says

If peak Oil is already a problem then Peak Rare Earth happened millions of years ago.

Electric cars are doomed.

No worries Captain, other technologies are already in the works.

5   MolotovCocktail   2024 Nov 25, 1:37pm  

All bullshit (about peak oil)

That chart has been proven to be bullshit, as we all know now.

Shale oil producers lie about their reserves. Because if they report anything more than 30 years, the government does something bad. Nationalize them or something. So, they all report 30 year reserves left.

But overtime - like between 2017 and now - it's proven to be bullshit.
6   WookieMan   2024 Nov 26, 3:22am  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

All bullshit (about peak oil)

I'm no oil guy, but no different than lava, this shit just keeps oozing up and we figure out how to capture it out of the ground. There's small oil fields in IL of all places. Hell, has anyone explored the Great Lakes for oil? So much surface and water areas that have never been inspected for oil.
7   zzyzzx   2024 Nov 26, 5:23am  

WookieMan says

has anyone explored the Great Lakes for oil? So much surface and water areas that have never been inspected for oil.

Perhaps you should suggest this to the oil majors.
8   zzyzzx   2024 Nov 26, 5:23am  

So, buy oil stocks, even at these prices?
9   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 18, 9:04pm  

Well @Strategist and other Peaksters, WTF happened?
10   🎂 AD   2025 Aug 18, 10:09pm  

.

Have to understand how oil and natural gas "are made" below ground

That gives context on supply meeting growing demand as far as ensuring adequate supply

I know from my line of work there is ways to make natural gas such as in a biodigester

Seen biodigesters for a large-scale poultry farm since poultry waste has a very high BTU to pound mass ratio, or energy content or density

.
11   MolotovCocktail   2026 Jan 26, 8:44am  

Strategist says

Folks, the days of fossil fuels are numbered:


http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/05/autos/volvo-electric-cars-internal-combustion-engine/index.html

Volvo is going all in on the electric car.

The Swedish automaker is slamming on the brakes on vehicles powered solely by internal combustion engines, announcing that every car it makes from 2019 onward will have an electric motor.


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/business/energy-environment/france-cars-ban-gas-diesel.html?mcubz=1

France Plans to End Sales of Gas and Diesel Cars by 2040


http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/03/technology/future/india-electric-cars/index.html

India to sell only electric cars by 2030




This didn't age well.
12   Tenpoundbass   2026 Jan 26, 9:17am  

Strategist says

Tenpoundbass says

If peak Oil is already a problem then Peak Rare Earth happened millions of years ago.

Electric cars are doomed.

Strategist says

No worries Captain, other technologies are already in the works.


Well I'm waiting!?
13   rocketjoe79   2026 Jan 26, 10:50am  

Oil companies are profit driven. The "Easy" oil is already being pumped, or depleted. The Harder-to-get Oil is being accessed with directional drilling. The Canadians are boiling tar sand that has to be mixed with lighter distillates to be viable, and they still make a profit. Oil companies are ALWAYS searching for new deposits, and they have identified reachable oil and gas deposits that will last 47-50 years (per Grok.) As soon as suppies get lowish, exploration ramps, deposits are "magically" found, and resource extraction continues. No need to explore too actively if supply is ok. I gotta believe they keep some in their back pocket (possible collusion) to make sure the price doesn't go too low.

Watch Landman, the new TV series, for a primer on Oil Economics, and other fun stuff. It's basic education for 20-somethings wrapped in an entertaining story, and head-nodding, "I-told-you-so" shit for Boomers. Actual conservative programming, sorta.

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