patrick.net

"Sales down is not equal to a CRASH. In fact, it is so far from it that the distance is like one end of the universe to the other end." -- Fake P.

Wrong again. A real estate market, being inherently far less liquid than a financial market, will have a long sustained price decline caused by decreased transaction volume caused by decreased demand. Demand has decreased due to currently high cost and a rising interest rate environment which increases monthly cost. A real estate market crash will be spread over a minimum of two years and will likely last much longer. You're an idiot. I'm shocked that you can even read and type.

@SFRenter

You’re an idiot. I’m shocked that you can even read and type.

Have you considered the liberal use of profanity?

"Have you considered the liberal use of profanity?"

I have, but in this guy's case, it would be like swearing at my dog. Yelling at a poor dumb animal just doesn't make sense because it's clear that it cannot comprehend certain concepts.

@SFR hehehehe, thanks for the laugh ;) dogs.

Hah hah hah hah! Give that monkey some darts and let him pick some Real Estate portfolios for us!

Way back during the boom boom dot com 90's, comedy central had a "stock pickin chicken" and it actually out performed the experts.

Have you considered the liberal use of profanity?

San Francisco RENTER,

Surfer-X was just being ironic here (see our previous exchange above). Instead of calling another blogger an "idiot", let me recommend some better, more flame-retardant variations:

"your arguments are illogical and not supported by the facts"
"the basis for your conclusions is badly flawed"
"you are employing a straw man/Reductio ad absurdum in your reasoning"

“Sales down is not equal to a CRASH. In fact, it is so far from it that the distance is like one end of the universe to the other end.” -Fake P

Also, given that the Universe is constantly expanding at the speed of light, your distance measurement is impossible to quantify according to the theory of relativity.

Well folks, I'm just going to go off and bang my head against a wall so I don't have to read any more Fake P postings. Have a great weekend!

Fake P,

IANAB (I am not a broker), but my understanding is that low sales volume in a market does not indicate crash directly, but it strongly indicates reversal of the trend. Since the market is extremely high right now reversal would mean prices going down (i.e. crash).

You are right though that in different state of market (e.g. falling market) low sales volume could indicate recovery, but I think the trend has been clearly established upwards during last 5 years.

By te way that is the reason why market volume is so closely monitored (and reported in news) for stock market as well. If volume falls investors get nervous for trend to reverse. If volume is up everybody is comfortable that current trend continues.

Why must a reversal of trend ABSOLUTELY and NECESSARILY lead to a CRASH? Why? Why? Why? Most of you spoke as if you knew what exactly will happen in the future.

Fake p, I could tell you why....but it's pointless because its already been discussed previously...you can look though previous threads and find the answers....no need for us to repeat. If you want to see where the crash is starting to happen, read Seekonk foreclosure filings up 163 percent. This is Massachusetts.... It is ARM's and I/O (suicide)loans that have accounted for most of the foreclosures. In the bubble areas, many loans are of the I/O and N/A variety...and these loans are starting to adjust....just wait until spring, there will be many more! However, if you bought in this market, you have my condolences.

Ah…finally someone in this blog is able to understand me and communicate to me at the same level.

*Ahem* I could easily respond with something snotty like, "wouldn't 'same level' be an arrogant blow-hard who distorts and exaggerates the other side's positions?", but since I'm glad Fake P's back, I'll let this one pass :roll:

My initial point is that even if there is a reversal of trend, there is still a huge gap between “reversal of trend” and “crash”. “reversal of trend” could lead to any of the following (and much more):
1. flat appreciation.
2. 1% decline every year for the next 10 years.
3. 5% decline every year for the next 5 years.
4. and on and on, the possibilities are endless.

'Scuze me, but isn't #3 almost EXACTLY what I and most 'bubble-heads' on this blog have been predicting for the last 6 months? I guess-timated it would be a 30-50% decline in CA over at least a 5-7 year period, based on how overvalued homes are vs. rents/incomes. Check out the archives --be my guest.

No one here has ever said a housing crash has to play out exactly like a stock market crash --RE moves much slower and is much stickier on the way down, mainly due to its relative lack of liquidity, much higher transaction times, complexity & costs, time/trouble it takes lenders to foreclose, etc.

"I’ll check back with you guys 6 months later to see how the market is crashing."

Excellent. You should buy another 2 or 3 condos on negatively amortizing I/O loans and let us know how that works out for you. I bet you'll have doubled your investment by then!

Fake P.

"My initial point is that even if there is a reversal of trend, there is still a huge gap between “reversal of trend” and “crash”. “reversal of trend” could lead to any of the following (and much more):
1. flat appreciation.
2. 1% decline every year for the next 10 years.
3. 5% decline every year for the next 5 years.
4. and on and on, the possibilities are endless."

I agree that degree of the decline is far from being certain, but considering that current trend upwards has been unusually steep, the trend going down could potentially be as steep as well.

Anyway, regardless of the severity of down trend I think that buying into the market with current prices is disasterous to ones financial health. Considering any of your options 1), 2) or 3) will result in considerable loss of equity and/or negative cash flow over renting in next 10 years, if interest rates keep rising. And as far as I've heard that seems to still to be the plan for feds.

Long live Surfer-X.

Here here.

Wow, a lovefest for someone who's known best for his racist drivel. Nice. Congratulations, folks.

“The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $625,000 last month, a new record. That was up 1.8 percent from $614,000 in October, and up 17.3 percent from $533,000 for November a year ago. Annual price increases so far this year have ranged from 17.2 percent to 20.5 percent. ”

october: "My house didn't sell.....I'm going to increase the price 5%"

november: "My house still didn't sell....I'm going to increase it another 5%"

december: "Still not sold.......I'm going to increase the price another 5%"

.......hell, prices keep increasing while sales are slowing ;)

october: “My house didn’t sell…..I’m going to increase the price 5%”

…….hell, prices keep increasing while sales are slowing

LOL :lol:

For all the Bulls,

What's bulls have glossed over to a large extent has been the "sea change" in the habits of the American consumer. Consumers first, workers, well a distant second. Work ethic is scoffed at, along with company/employee loyalty. The housing boom held the promise of "Every Man a King!" A veritable Magna Carta. Liberation from the duldrums of the 40 hour week, just as the tech bubble promised. Many bestowed upon themselves a level of sophistication normally reserved for "old money". "What?" You're 45 and still working? It's fairly common knowledge that the koi ponds and SUV's were paid for with cash-out refi's. Home prices only needed to "flatten out" to derail the boom and become a bust. With this source of instant liquidity evaporated the party ended quickly.

SQT,

Kudos on the 5 stages, and I've been through them not once but twice! Once in the stock market and I've happily sidestepped the housing crash. Starting over once in life is enough, and I suspect that is what the bulls are grappling with. They didn't get to retire at 45 and now they're upside down in a McMansion until doomsday. I too love the smell of desperation in the morning!

Lulu is a pretty good restaurant in SF. I remember having the roasted whole seabass. :)

All PRIME(tm) counties (Napa, Marin, SF, San Mateo) have registed a MoM decline.

There is also a Lulu Petite in the Ferry Building. :)

Too bad we are not meeting there. :)

Racist? Me? Now I've been called many many things, asshole being on top of the list. But racist? I must hate my mexican half, self-loathing? now that explains it, thanks.

And thanks to you SQT :)

Surfer-X writes:
Racist? Me? Now I’ve been called many many things, asshole being on top of the list. But racist? I must hate my mexican half, self-loathing? now that explains it, thanks.

Dude, really don't want to disturb your blissful ignorance, but I got news for you. Just because you may or may not be a member of some minority doesn't mean you can now say everything about everybody. It goes both ways. Associating someone with Nazi criminals in the most insulting way imaginable just because he's German and somewhat obnoxious is racism in my book.

I lost my respect for you a while ago already. I know you don't give a shit about that. After your recent outbreak I'm instantly losing all respect for everybody who's showing sympathy for you. And I'm sure no one gives a shit about that either.
Just telling you how it is. Congratulations again.

But,… what about the fact that Bay Area homes prices reached an all time record high of $625,000?

How come we can ‘t have a rationale discussion about this? I don’t get it.

Median doesn't mean much......Just an article by some realtor who is making it out to be more than it really is....for every one of those, there are a thousand others referring to the bust. All it takes is one seriously stupid sheeple to buy a house at a high price on the high end of the market and the median will go higher. There are very fewer sheeple left to buy....and I'm glad if all the rest of them buy in now so that come spring time, the crash will be more pronounced. :)

"But,… what about the fact that Bay Area homes prices reached an all time record high of $625,000?

How come we can ‘t have a rationale discussion about this? I don’t get it." --Lulu

Well Lulu, there's just not much to discuss--I mean Bay Area homes just reached a RECORD HIGH! It speaks for itself, doesn't it?! And how many records have they broken already? No doubt they will keep breaking records forever! Bay Area homes have now risen far more over the past five years than they have over any five year period in history. And now that this train is in motion Lulu, it's got momentum--ain't nothin' gonna stop this runaway housing market train baby! I know you don't want to miss the train Lulu--there it is, leaving the station right now! You need to get into this market honey, RIGHT NOW!! Don't you realize that if you don't buy now you may never, ever, ever get to buy a house in your LIFE?! I mean Bay Area homes just reached a RECORD HIGH honey!! If you thought this past five years of housing growth was a wild ride you ain't seen nothin' yet! You know and I know that Real Estate prices in the Bay Area never go down, so don't listen to this discussion board full of losers. They're not getting on the train with you and me baby. We're going to leave them far, far behind. Now get out there and buy as many condos as you can--DO NOT, I repeat DO NOT listen to any of this crap about getting a "safe mortgage"--whatever the Hell that means. You get whatever mortgages you need to afford as much Real Estate as you can buy--and don't even worry about the total cost you're going to pay for this stuff--all you need to worry about is can you make those monthly payments? You know that you've bought enough property when you can afford to buy food and nothing else--all the rest of your income will be going to making your mortgage payments. This is all you have to do and I can guarantee you that you are going to be a Trillionaire. Now get out there and buy buy buy! And don't you forget this: Bay Area homes just reached a RECORD HIGH!

But to speak of the Germans as a ‘race’ lands us in precisely the pickle that we’re trying to avoid, doesn’t it? Volkishness?

Ok, then let's split some hair and call it "discrimination against one's nationality". The effect is the same.

@Girgl Just telling you how it is.

What a presumptuous fuckwad, I think you meant to say, "how it is in my book". English, it's not just for the Hun anymore. Ok, just for the "record" being "German" is no more an indicator of race than being "Amerikan". For your education, fuckwad, "Americans suck ass and are generally stupid fucking pigs that fill their empty shallow lives with trips to the strip mall" is not now nor ever will be racist. "Germans are hated world-wide because they are obnoxious, even more than the Americans, and have given their best try at whitewashing their history" is likewise not now nor ever will be racist.

Ok, then let’s split some hair and call it “discrimination against one’s nationality”. The effect is the same.

No, it's not, how's the air up on that soap-box? Just curious, were you so self-fucking-righteous when The Hun was putting forth the idea that most Americans were fat and lazy? Kindly put the beret back on, choogle back to Telegraph and get "real". A group hug with the patolui crowd should do wonders for your ruffled feathers, and why oh why can't we all jst get a bong?

How's this, I fucking hate hippies, personally I think they should have their hair forcibly washed and their bongs broken, to quote Cartman, "hippies want to change the world but all they do is bother people and smell bad". When one arrives here and tries to clean-state their past, tries to tell a long long long time Californian "how it is", yes i become offended. I thought it well advised to remind them of their history. Please go take mommy and daddies credit card, buy another tall mocha latte and learn the correct definitions of words.

For your futher "education" this is from miriamwebster

racism
One entry found for racism.

Main Entry: rac·ism
Pronunciation: 'rA-"si-z&m also -"shi-
Function: noun
1 : a belief that race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race

You see, fuckwad, when the Hun puts forth their opinions as they were fact, and when the Hun has a historic record of that indicates race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race, that makes their opinion highly suspect in "my book". Again, straighten up the Beret and enjoy your latte, fuckwad.

@Girgl

because you may or may not be a member of some minority doesn’t mean you can now say everything about everybody.

No, actually this does: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Actually I can say what ever i fucking want about anyone, how’s this, i really really really really really dislike the radically religious , and I would like to see all the greedy boomers live out the rest of their shallow lives drinking expired Assure in a shitty old folks home (oh, sorry my bad, I meant "elder care facility", fuckwad). Or better yet, I think greedy dishonest RealtorsTM should have their thumbs cut off, along with their equally as malfeasant appraiser buddies.

So it political incorrectness offends you, maybe you should think about finding another RE blog because the rest of us have come to think of Surfer-X as part of the core group that posts here, and I bet most people would vote enthusiatically to keep him around as much as possible.

SQT you are the most level headed person I have ever encountered, you rock ;)

If you're not offened, you're not paying attention. Offensive? not half as much as watching fucking morons swagger around thinking they are rich because they just extracted 100K in equity. Offensive? not nearly as much as watching California tumble to the bottom of school ratings while yuppie fuckwads buy another hummer with their equity. Offensive? Not nearly as much as watching my friends, who have worked thier fucking asses off, being pushed out of their hometown by carpet-bagging dickweeds who are solely here to make a quick buck. Fuck them.

Man, I am so fucking pissed in my fervor to rebut I spilled my '73 BV Georges de latour. Fuck.

"What makes a small shithole condo go up 200k in value in just three months.?" --moonvalley

Quite simply, an asset bubble created by our very own Federal Reserve Bank--a mistake they've made before. The FED cut interest rates too low and kept them too low too long in order to stave off a recession after 9/11 and (Oooops!) created the current housing bubble. Historically, when money is cheap (low interest rates) and credit is easy to attain, asset price inflation always occurs as the cheap money is used to buy assets. Or, to quote Peter Schiff of EuroPacific Capital:

"The mistake made by the Fed during the 1920's was expanding the supply of money and credit too rapidly. However, as increasing productivity prevented consumer prices from rising, the Fed was unconcerned about the inflation it was creating. Instead, the excess money and credit that spilled into financial and real estate markets caused asset prices to rise, which resulted in claims of a 'new era' (sound familiar?). The bust of 1929 led to the Great Depression of the 1930's not as a result of Fed tightening, as Bernanke claims, but due to the misguided economic policies of the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations."

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

That's why I still love America despite how fucked up it has gotten.

Surfer-X says:
You see, fuckwad, when the Hun puts forth their opinions as they were fact, and when the Hun has a historic record of that indicates race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race, that makes their opinion highly suspect in “my book”. Again, straighten up the Beret and enjoy your latte, fuckwad.

I've had it with ignorant assholes like you who think they're somehow morally or otherwise superior with the only reason being that they're "not German", especially because all those wankers invariably know, want to know and ever will know about Germany is what Hollywood has chosen to present to them in order to make a quick buck, and what they have watched to get both a cheap little thrill and the warm fuzzies because obviously they're *better*.

I've had it *especially* with the kind of ignorant assholes who think it's a cool and acceptable move to play the "you must be a Nazi mass murderer or at least endorse these crimes just because you're German" card.

You really wanna relive WWII? You want to play the "count the war crimes" game? No? Then why the hell do you conjure up the ghosts of the past with that stupid drivel?

Guess what, from now on your pathetic little identity will cross my hun mind whenever "ugly Amerikan" (sic) is up, even though you obviously think you're far superior to your fellow countrymen by virtue of not being a "fat-ass boomer".

About the constitutional right to free speech:
I surely did not want to imply that anything or anyone in this country is keeping you from making a complete idiot out of yourself.

Oh yeah, speaking of freedom of speech: Hopefully your little army of cheerleaders won't be too offended by *my* liberal use of profanity since they love yours so much.

And guess what, wanker, just in case you're now again ready to squirt out the "Arbeit macht frei" killer argument:
My own grandfather died in a concentration camp.

He fell off the watchtower, piss drunk.

Chew on this, arrogant dick.

My own grandfather died in a concentration camp.

He fell off the watchtower, piss drunk.

Nice, I take it you are a Hun?

Surfer-X says:
Nice, I take it you are a Hun?

Of course. How else could I have such a bad sense of humor.

What's odd is that I heard that same joke from a visiting student from Aachen, must be a Hun thing. Aachen is an amazing place; Charlemagne’s 8th century cathedral is there. What’s even more amazing is that the 101st leveled it when they entered Germany, and you studious German’s put it right back together again. Deutschland uber alles, fuck yeah, suck my ass and lick my balls.

You really wanna relive WWII? You want to play the “count the war crimes” game? No? Sure, lets see, a war of aggression, racial and ethnic cleansing, but I’ve really got to give it to you, the German V2 designers really showed their stuff on the Saturn IV.

Sure. Lets start with the fact that a vary small minority of Germans were actually in the SS, yet the SS effectively policed an entire nation, what does that say about the inherent German character? I love the EU thingy the Deutschbank put forth, hell at least you're not rolling Panzers across the Arden again. Funny thing when ones history is too horrible to address, perhaps you’d be better served taking a long hard look at what makes a Nation so xenophobic and willing to commit such horrific crimes.

Good to hear your Grandfather had such a good time at the camps. Mine, unfortunately did not, you see the sucking chest wound at Basting kind of killed the party.

Shit sorry, housing, yeah housing sucks. Too over priced, but hey, at least we're not freezing our asses off in Germany wondering why we can't buy bread on a Sunday.

-Basting
+Bastogne

But hey, to be fair the Altbier I had in Dusseldorf really rocked, go Zum Uerige. Had the greatest humor moment in Japan, was at Mijima Island and there were these white tourists and the marines that were there were amazed that I knew they were german. I explained, if you see a guy that looks like he is gay but has a girl with him and thus he isn't likely, he's German, either that or he's trying out for an episode of Sprockets w/Deiter

Surfer-X says:
Sure. Lets start with the fact that a vary small minority of Germans were actually in the SS, yet the SS effectively policed an entire nation, what does that say about the inherent German character?

Aside from the fact that it was a bit more complicated than that with the whole policing thing, you really really think that the U.S. population as a whole, being in the *exact* same circumstances, would behave differently?
Be a nation of rebels and fight tooth and nail against the evil oppressor (who, by the way, just cut their taxes, got everybody back to work, built affordable housing and made education for their children free)?
If so, dream on.

Shmend says:
‘hey so we tried to take over the world and almost exterminated an entire ethnic group. water under the bridge!’

That's *exactly* what I'm talking about. You obviously didn't get the point.