patrick.net

When the recession happens, unless this cycle last another 7 years, oh lord the bears would hang themselves by then... it will look more like 2000 than 2007.

However, can't look that far out in time, really working off 90 day data lines always.. Even the yearly predictions are suspect to changes late in a cycle not so much in the early years or mid cycle.

This will be the longest economic expansion ever..

The Bears never learn. There is no no reason for a recession on the horizon. We are gonna see the greatest home construction boom in the next few years. Home building and it's related services are such a huge part of the economy, there is no way we can have a recession. Sure there will be a recession one day, but not in the foreseeable future.

Strategist says

greatest home construction boom in the next few years.

Years 2020-2024 you have better demographics for housing construction, always was going to be impossible to hit the 50 year moving average in this cycle but the next decade should look better than that chart above due to chart below

As we have replacement workers we do have replacement buyers, just have less capacity in context to boomers because of all the homes we have built for decades as those homes will still be around when the boomers die off



Single family starts still growing, MF boom in terms of rate of growth has cooled down since the 2015 Tax credit expiration

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/09/19/hurricanes-harvey-irma-maria-and-housing-starts/

Logan Mohtashami says

Years 2020-2024 you have better demographics for housing construction, always was going to be impossible to hit the 50 year moving average in this cycle but the next decade should look better than that chart above due to chart below

As we have replacement workers we do have replacement buyers, just have less capacity in context to boomers because of all the homes we have built for decades as those homes will still be around when the boomers die off

What a beauty. We have a lot of catching up to do in the home building sector.. Add to that the positive demographics emerging for the home construction business.
It's an opportunity of a lifetime folks. Buy homebuilders NOW.

Strategist says

Buy homebuilders NOW.

KBH $10 bucks was a steal back then ;-)

Three generations ago we would be spending this time hustling to ensure we had enough to eat next week.

Now, we spend that time on the Internet screeching at one another about how "terrible" everything is.

deepcgi says

The most amusing part though, from the perspective of the R&D I have been involved in for the past 8 years, is that you seem to believe you will not have to tear your shacks down to the baseboards to be on the wise side of the next big fear.

Tell us more.

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Buy homebuilders NOW.

KBH $10 bucks was a steal back then ;-)

It's still a steal. My largest holding is "ITB" - Home builder ETF. Up 33% in the last 12 months.

Strategist says

"ITB"

KBH since $10

Logan Mohtashami says

1. Longest job expansion in U.S. history, almost double the previous record

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=fgh1
1959 - 1973: 25 million jobs gained ~50% expansion in jobs vs. 30% expansion of working-age population.

[mild recession in 1960 saw 200,000 jobs (0.4% of workforce) lost but that's irrelevant to the bigger picture]

1974 - 1980: 12 million jobs gained -- 16% expansion in jobs vs. 12% expansion in population

1981- 1990: +18M jobs -- 20% expansion in jobs vs. 10% expansion in population

1991 - 2000: +22M jobs -- 20% expansion vs. 13% demographics

2001 - 2006: +6M jobs -- 4.5% expansion vs. 7.8% demographics (in 2005 boomer echo was age 5-23)

2007-2016: +6M jobs, 4.6% expansion vs. 5% demographics

(these are peak-to-peak numbers, Dec 2007 employment level wasn't recovered until mid-2014)



shows how the Fed pumped $3.4T of new money into the economy 2009-2014.



red is corporate profits added. Flat since 2012 oddly enough. Something rotten in the State of Denmark with that.

Graccius was about 150 years before Diocletian. So if we are (your words) mirroring Rome year for year we have a 150 year golden era before peak and several hundred years of decline.

Double hooray!!!

Bellingham Bill says

(these are peak-to-peak numbers, Dec 2007 employment level wasn't recovered until mid-2014)

Do you guys realize that

A. Longest job expansion on record

B. We have 6,200,000 job openings, the highest every in human kind history

So much for the pathetic 96,000,000 people out of work non sense

C. Outside the Hurricanes, unemployment claims look really good

Even with manufacturing going into a recession in the U.S. in this cycle

tr6 says

Personal income is not wages

indeed! everybody knows WASCUR is wages :)

blue is PI, red is WASCUR, green is WASCUR / PI (right axis)

Bellingham Bill says

One of my favorite Cute cuddly American bear charts it goes into the category



D. The extreme left wing makes everyone out to poor to hate on Capitalism

Logan Mohtashami says

Even with manufacturing going into a recession in the U.S. in this cycle

capacity is at recessionary levels still

not that that is necessarily a bad thing, idle capital is still capital, but the question is jobs.



no movement on the needle in manufacturing jobs since 2010.

I agree the construction print is a crime and should be double that to replace our shitty aging postwar housing stock

green is information jobs, software is still eating everything.

Bellingham Bill says

Even with manufacturing going into a recession in the U.S. in this cycle

Prime example .... what I tell the kids, is when these old guys run manufacturing charts ... show this

then show the Output charts






I wrote this article Manufacturing Under President Donald Trump

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/12/09/manufacturing-under-president-donald-trump/

To show exactly why the American bears hooked on Manufacturing jobs were going to be blazed out wrong ... Dean Baker got me on this with his rants of that the Dollar needs to be 20% lower for output and jobs to come back

Not 1940's -1960's anymore old days ... Productivity gains came in this sector leading to higher output

Logan Mohtashami says

Which still needs to live off a weak yen

360, now that was a weak yen. 110 is still on the strong side, McDonald's wages are $13/hr there, vs $19 when the yen was at 80.

150 would be getting on the weak side again.

Bellingham Bill says

Which still needs to live off a weak yen

Logan Mohtashami says

weak

110 isn't weak. It's in the normal range. 80 was making Japanese labor utterly non-competitive with the US, let alone the cheap-labor countries.

Bellingham Bill says

Who do you consider extreme left?

Extreme Left = MMT ( Bernie Sanders Crew) God Bless Bernie for wanting to pay for everything as that makes him a No Go on MMT .. ..

Extreme Right = Gold Bugs Anti Central Bank

If you don't consider yourself any of this .... then you're not in that group

Bellingham Bill says

110 isn't weak. It's in the normal range. 80 was making Japanese labor utterly non-competitive with the US, let alone the cheap-labor countries.

I even spelled it out with the chart dude .. I am not talking about recent moves, they want the Yen weaker of course but it always doesn't work that way

This will be my last post on this thread and for 2017. So let wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years all at once

and know... the future .... it will not be nameless, it will not be faceless, it will not be heartless .... We are the United States of America, our people will succeed!

Cheers gents now you all can go back to your regular scream fest

#USA

Logan Mohtashami says

I even spelled it out with the chart dude

you're cherry-picking the yen graph

https://imgur.com/a/5Gtfh

Logan Mohtashami says

This will be my last post on this thread and for 2017

Come in here, diarrhea a bunch posts with graphs that you can't defend, and leave. That's Logan.

Logan Mohtashami says

However, you're running into a better demographic patch in a few years, this isn't like 2006, it's the exact opposite

That chart is moderately convincing of good times to come for home builders. Thanks for it, you've sure piqued my interest. How deeply have you looked into this?

I'm pretty laymen on the topic of housing demand, but I wonder how much this partial age segment (20-39) matters. I know people are waiting significantly longer and longer to marry and have children these last couple decades, and I think I heard that marriage+children is a big first-home purchase driver.

But also, what about the 40+ age segment? I'm more concerned about boomers that die or goto elder care, returning their home to the market, generating added supply that cancels the new demand from the 20-39 year olds.

I guess I'm looking for a more holistic view, and wondering if you've pursued that angle and have any info or charts to share. Well...I know you always have charts haha :p

See ya Logan. Thanks for taking a shit on these guys then leaving. Go out enjoy you life then come back next year. Don't worry, they'll still be here.

goat says

I'm more concerned about boomers that die or goto elder care, returning their home to the market, generating added supply that cancels the new demand from the 20-39 year olds.

Bingo. Not counting all the immigrants (and there are tens of millions) the boomers are 80M on the ground, same size as Gen Y (as all the boomers had 2.1 kids)

Boomers are age 53 to 71 this year. Gen Y is 17 to 35.

anonymous says

I'm not asking for anything close to numerical accuracy

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=fgpt
This is just a one-off chart comparing real GDP (red, 1960 = 100) to real corporate profits (blue, 1960 = 100).

This shows corporate profits could fall 50% to fall back to the long-term trendline. But the question is why & how they got their post dotcom expansion in the first place.



^ real (2017 dollars) corporate profits.

I mean, they tripled 2001-now. How did that happen? Real GDP is up $5T since 2000.



shows corporate profits have risen from 4% of GDP to 9%.

jazz_music says

Old age is the time when people reconcile and make peace with the world and their long journey through this world. Every culture there is attributes a long list of benefits to achieving old age. Not everybody gets to achieve old age, and if they do, its because they did something right.

I can't remember the last time you said something this good. You must have run out of the good Jamaican stuff.

Logan Mohtashami says

This will be my last post on this thread and for 2017.

You are such an asshole Logan. How can you leave me to handle all these crazy bears?

Logan Mohtashami says

Personally, I think you're terrible because you're all too old and cranky

I tell the youth, don't listen to Boomers, they're old and they have way too much baggage

They want to see America fall like Rome or become like Greece or what ever you old people call us....

Boomers are the most vain idiots ever. They literally think the world revolves around them, and thus because they are almost checking out of this world it's now apocalypse this and apocalypse that. They can't deal with the fact that they will leave this world, and this ball will just keep strumming along even better without them.

I suppose TV and Movies can partially be blamed for their condition.

Strategist says

OMG. Someone give me a gun. I need to shoot myself. I can't stand the pain.

Is that supposed to be ironic ? That is considering the numbers of middle aged people committing suicide or becoming addicted to opioid pain killers ?

>>What Happened To The Great American Crash?!?!?!?!
>>By Logan Mohtashami
>>A. Lack Discipline

Logan cannot formulate a complete thought, let alone a complete sentence. Logan's ability to formulate a coherent sentence is like that of a woman of ethnicity on a bad daytime TV dating show. Has everyone seen the following conversation a few times already?

TV host: What kind of man are you looking for?
WOE: Treat me like a lady!

jazz_music says

Logan Mohtashami says

What Happened To The Great American Crash?!?!?!?!

Ans: It was postponed by bail outs, Quantitative Easing and changes such as suspension of Mark To Market in Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. (GAAP)

And why would they not want to postpone it again and again?

Of course there is always the "they don't ring a bell at the top" theory: