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There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


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2018 May 14, 8:51am   79,216 views  699 comments

by Goran_K   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  



Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

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557   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 4:18pm  

Cook Report had FL-16 listed as "Competitive" and FL-26 as "Toss Up"

Currently, the GOP candidate is leading by about 14 pts in FL-16 and by about 6 pts in FL-26.

Only a handful of precincts reporting.
558   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 6:41pm  

I haven’t been keeping up. Is everything called?
560   SoTex   2018 Nov 6, 7:22pm  

The blue wave was in Guam. True story!
561   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 7:23pm  

Goran_K says
There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


I don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?

I reckon it depends on how you define blue wave.
562   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 7:24pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


I don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?

I reckon it depends on how you define blue wave.


I’d say that is in line with expectations. Incumbents have only held the house 4 times in history. Last time it happened was 2002 (16 years ago).

But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?
563   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 7:28pm  

Goran_K says
But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?


I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.
564   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 7:30pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
But if they don’t hold the house, what do you call it?


I guess at present I'd call it something that has about a 1 in 8 chance of happening.


Dems lost 5 senate seats (I predicted 4). Is that a blue wave?
565   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 7:31pm  

It’s almost certain that Ginsburgs seat will be filled by a conservative.
566   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 7:35pm  

Good bye Beto. All that Hollywood money for naught.
567   socal2   2018 Nov 6, 7:37pm  

marcus says
don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?


Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.

What does that look like to you?
568   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 7:41pm  

The historical average pickup by non incumbents is 28 seats in the house and 2 senate seats.

So far the Dems are projected to win 25-30 seats (expected) and lose 4 - 5 senate seats (totally unexpected).

This isn’t a blue wave.
569   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 7:43pm  

Goran_K says
Good bye Beto. All that Hollywood money for naught.


Well, the refugees got a lot of free water bottles from his campaign (donors).

Finally, Hollywood gave up it's wealth to the poor.
570   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 7:45pm  

Aphroman says
socal2 says
marcus says
don't know. You tell me. If democrats pick up well over 30 seats in the house, is it a blue wave or not ?


Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.
Looks like:
Democrats will pick up 30 House seats and Lose 4-5 Senate seats in 2018.

What does that look like to you?


It looks like they flipped the House

What does it look like to you?


Losing 5 senate seats looks like a crushing defeat. Trump will probably replace anywhere from 80-100 federal judge appointments in the next 2 years.
571   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 7:46pm  

Aphroman says
What does it look like to you?


IT looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time.

THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.

I'm not disappointed compared to what was predicted. What everyone thought would happen is happening.
572   SoTex   2018 Nov 6, 7:47pm  

Goran_K says
Trump will probably replace anywhere from 80-100 federal judge appointments in the next 2 years.


Yup, they were just yacking about that on the newz..

But Guam! har har
573   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm  

Goran_K says

So far the Dems are projected to win 25-30 seats (expected)


Closer to 35 or more, apparently.
574   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 7:48pm  

marcus says
THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.


Marcus, the Republicans already got Indiana, Florida, and North Dakota . They're already Up 3, and have a good chance of gaining Arizona and Missouri.

What REALLY helped the Dems is that liberal Supreme State Supreme Court Judges forced a pro-Dem redistricting of Pennsylvania.
575   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 7:52pm  

Ymarcus says
Aphroman says
What does it look like to you?


IT looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time.

THe economy is strong, and the democrats are picking up possibly over 30 seats in the house. Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the senate.

I'm not disappointed compared to what was predicted. What everyone thought would happen is happening.


You thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).

Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.
576   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 7:57pm  

Goran_K says
You thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).

Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.


I made no prediction about the senate, at least as far as I recall. I totally believed the analysts that said there was a 1 in 5 chance democrats would take control of the senate.

I did predict (only becasue you or someone asked), that the house would pick up 39 democrat seats. We will see how far off that was. I knew it was very optimistic and hopeful prediction. I'll be quite happy with 32 or 35.

You're disappointed right now.

I'm not.

Not that I see you as being honest (with yourself or the forum) enough to admit that I'm right about that.
577   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:01pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
You thought before this the Dems would lose 3 senate seats? (More like 4-5 based on votes right now).

Where did you predict this? Certainly not on PatNet.


I made no prediction about the senate, at least as far as I recall. I totally believed the analysts that said there was a 1 in 5 chance democrats would take control of the senate.

I did predict (only becasue you or someone asked, that the house would pick up 39 democrat seats. We will see how far off that was. I knew it was very opimistic. I'll be quite happy with 32 or 35.

You're disappointed right now.

I'm not.

Not that I see you as being honest enough to admit that I'm right about that.


Your expectations must be low. Trump can replace federal judges at will for the next two years with a solid senate majority including the SCOTUS, no more Gorsuch or Kavanaugh nail biters. Also Trump being impeached out of office is now impossible.

The house thing sucks (true) but was expected.

Just ask yourself this. Would you rather own the POTUS, solid majority in the senate, solid majority in SCOTUS or small majority in the house?

We know the truth Marcus.
578   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:08pm  

Is that your way of agreeing with me ? That just with respect to today ? I'm not disappointed and you are ?

Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.
579   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:09pm  

marcus says
Is that your way of agreeing with me ? That just with respect to today ? I'm not disappointed and you are ?

Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.


I was being honest. I said the house thing sucked. But I’m happy to keep the POTUS, senate and SCOTUS and all federal judge appointments for the next 2 years. That honestly, no joke, makes me happy because judges at the circuit courts and SCOTUS last for decades and can over turn bad leftist laws.

But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?

That seems ... peculiar.
580   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 8:10pm  

Just got a 4th Senate Seat, called by several outlets now.

That's Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.

The Dems had 26 seats up for a vote, and the Republicans took 20% of those. And most of those were in invulnerable in Deep Blue. Almost any Senate Seat the GOP has a chance to take, they took and willl take.

Sinema to be disappointed next.
581   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:14pm  

Goran_K says
But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?


I never said that. And going in to today, I had close to zero hope for that.

AS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.

THe thing you don't get is that I respect the analysts far more than you, so I didn't have real hopes for the senate, but was concerned about the house.
582   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 8:17pm  

Just a reminder that Cook, Sabato, Nate Silver, etc. etc. went into today with the Dems winning something like 30-50 seats.
583   socal2   2018 Nov 6, 8:19pm  

marcus says
AS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.


Not only losing Senate seats, but losing the Governorships in big states like Ohio and Florida? That bodes well for Trump's re-election in 2020.
584   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:19pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Just a reminder that Cook, Sabato, Nate Silver, etc. etc. went into today with the Dems winning something like 30-50 seats.


Actually Nates average and median was something like 36 to 38. Very close to what's happening.
585   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:20pm  

socal2 says
marcus says
AS I said, I'm actually quite happy with the results.


Not only losing Senate seats, but losing the Governorships in big states like Ohio and Florida? That bodes well for Trump's re-election in 2020.


No president has ever been elected losing Florida and Ohio. Trump has shown he has both states.
586   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm  

Aphroman says
Goran_K says
marcus says
Is that your way of agreeing with me ? That just with respect to today ? I'm not disappointed and you are ?

Come on. Be that one republican that's not lying 100% of the time. OR that every once in a while even understands the question.


I was being honest. I said the house thing sucked. But I’m happy to keep the POTUS, senate and SCOTUS and all federal judge appointments for the next 2 years. That honestly, no joke, makes me happy because judges at the circuit courts and SCOTUS last for decades and can over turn bad leftist laws.

But you said you prayed hard every night for the senate to turn as well and now that the senate went 4-5 seats against your prayers, you’re not disappointed?

That seems ... peculiar.


POTUS, Senate and SCOTUS were all already locked up...


But were the Dems supposed to lose 4 (probably 5) senate seats? Not even Republicans thought that would happen.
587   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:21pm  

Nate just now said that anything from 25 to 45 would not be crazy out of line (their average guess is now 33). All along he's understood the possibilities far better than you (or I).
588   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:22pm  

marcus says
Nate just now said that anything from 25 to 45 would not be crazy out of line (their average guess is now 33). All along he's understood the possibilities far better than you (or I).


How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?
590   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:29pm  

The majority of felons in the United States are Democrats.
591   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:30pm  

Goran_K says
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?


He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5

Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

This is based on polls.

He said 80% chance it's between +2 for democrats and +4 for republicans.
592   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:32pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
How many senate seats did he predict Dems would lose?


He didn't predict. That's what you don't seem to understand. But he had the average implied change to be + .5

Here. Look at this. That's where he was this morning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

This is based on polls.


That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
593   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm  

marcus says
Nate just now said


Only care what he said before today. Like I said, adjusting a model as the test of the model is ongoing is not a vindication of the model.

Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5, Huge Extra Protein Shake Gains of Doom! in the Senate
594   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm  

Goran_K says
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.


Why is 538 still saying +3.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.

Perhaps west coast ?
595   curious2   2018 Nov 6, 8:36pm  

Goran_K says
The majority of felons in the United States are Democrats.


Among convicted felons, that might be true, and Florida has decided to add more than a million to the list of eligible voters. In 2016, President Trump carried FL by 100k votes, out of 9 million total. If a million more Democrats can vote starting in 2020, then that might tip the balance towards Democrats for statewide and federal offices.
596   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 8:41pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.


Why is 538 still saying +3.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.

Perhaps west coast ?


Uh because they’re wrong?

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